Predicting Violent Crime

This research works to predict the likelihood that an individual is going to participate in a violent crime. The predictors were taken from several bodies of work and synthesized into a survey format, which can be distributed to the desired population. These measures operate on the hypothesis that certain characteristics increase the likelihood of, but do not predict with certainty, an individual\u27s propensity to participate in violent crime. The work also serves as a manual for how to interpret the selected data sets as well as how to break down the statistical correlations of each question to their predictive power

Temporal vs. spatial variation in stress-associated metabolites within a population of climate-sensitive small mammals

Temporal variation in stress might signify changes in an animal&rsquo;s internal or external environment, while spatial variation instress might signify variation in the quality of the habitats that individual animals experience. Habitat-induced variationsin stress might be easiest to detect in highly territorial animals, and especially in species that do not take advantage ofcommon strategies for modulating habitat-induced stress, such as migration (escape in space) or hibernation (escape intime). Spatial and temporal variation in response to potential stressors has received little study in wild animals, especiallyat scales appropriate for relating stress to specific habitat characteristics. Here, we use the American pika (Ochotona princeps),a territorial small mammal, to investigate stress response within and among territories. For individually territorial animalssuch as pikas, differences in habitat quality should lead to differences in stress exhibited by territory owners. We indexedstress using stress-associated hormone metabolites in feces collected non-invasively from pika territories every 2 weeks fromJune to September 2018.We hypothesized that differences in territory qualitywould lead to spatial differences in mean stressand that seasonal variation in physiology or the physical environment would lead to synchronous variation across territoriesthrough time.We used linear mixed-effects models to explore spatiotemporal variation in stress using fixed effects of day-ofyearand broad habitat characteristics (elevation, aspect, site), aswell as local variation in habitat characteristics hypothesizedto affect territory quality for this saxicolous species (talus depth, clast size, available forage types). We found that temporalvariation within territories was greater than spatial variation among territories, suggesting that shared seasonal stressors aremore influential than differences in individual habitat quality. This approach could be used in other wildlife studies to refineour understanding of habitat quality and its effect on individual stress levels as a driver of population decline.</p

Shell evolution approaching the N=20 island of inversion : Structure of 26Na

The levels in 26Na with single particle character have been observed for the first time using the d(25Na, pγ) reaction at 5 MeV/nucleon. The measured excitation energies and the deduced spectroscopic factors are in good overall agreement with (0+1)hω shell model calculations performed in a complete spsdfp basis and incorporating a reduction in the N=20 gap. Notably, the 1p3/2 neutron configuration was found to play an enhanced role in the structure of the low-lying negative parity states in 26Na, compared to the isotone 28Al. Thus, the lowering of the 1p3/2 orbital relative to the 0f7/2 occurring in the neighbouring Z=10 and 12 nuclei - 25,27Ne and 27,29Mg - is seen also to occur at Z=11 and further strengthens the constraints on the modelling of the transition into the island of inversion

Sensitivity of the Cherenkov Telescope Array to a dark matter signal from the Galactic centre

We provide an updated assessment of the power of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) to search for thermally produced dark matter at the TeV scale, via the associated gamma-ray signal from pair-annihilating dark matter particles in the region around the Galactic centre. We find that CTA will open a new window of discovery potential, significantly extending the range of robustly testable models given a standard cuspy profile of the dark matter density distribution. Importantly, even for a cored profile, the projected sensitivity of CTA will be sufficient to probe various well-motivated models of thermally produced dark matter at the TeV scale. This is due to CTA's unprecedented sensitivity, angular and energy resolutions, and the planned observational strategy. The survey of the inner Galaxy will cover a much larger region than corresponding previous observational campaigns with imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. CTA will map with unprecedented precision the large-scale diffuse emission in high-energy gamma rays, constituting a background for dark matter searches for which we adopt state-of-the-art models based on current data. Throughout our analysis, we use up-to-date event reconstruction Monte Carlo tools developed by the CTA consortium, and pay special attention to quantifying the level of instrumental systematic uncertainties, as well as background template systematic errors, required to probe thermally produced dark matter at these energies

Sensitivity of the Cherenkov Telescope Array for probing cosmology and fundamental physics with gamma-ray propagation

The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), the new-generation ground-based observatory for γ astronomy, provides unique capabilities to address significant open questions in astrophysics, cosmology, and fundamental physics. We study some of the salient areas of γ cosmology that can be explored as part of the Key Science Projects of CTA, through simulated observations of active galactic nuclei (AGN) and of their relativistic jets. Observations of AGN with CTA will enable a measurement of γ absorption on the extragalactic background light with a statistical uncertainty below 15% up to a redshift z=2 and to constrain or detect γ halos up to intergalactic-magnetic-field strengths of at least 0.3 pG . Extragalactic observations with CTA also show promising potential to probe physics beyond the Standard Model. The best limits on Lorentz invariance violation from γ astronomy will be improved by a factor of at least two to three. CTA will also probe the parameter space in which axion-like particles could constitute a significant fraction, if not all, of dark matter. We conclude on the synergies between CTA and other upcoming facilities that will foster the growth of γ cosmology.</p

Sampling a pika's pantry: Temporal shifts in nutritional quality and winter preservation of American pika food caches

Abstract Climate change is increasing temperature, decreasing precipitation, and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in many ecosystems. As atmospheric carbon rises, plants may increase carbon‐based defenses, such as phenolics, thereby potentially affecting food quality, foraging habits, and habitat suitability for mammalian herbivores. In alpine habitats, the American pika (Ochotona princeps) is a model species for studying effects of changing plant chemistry on mammals. To survive between growing seasons, pikas cache “haypiles” of plants rich in phenolics. Although they are toxic to pikas, phenolic compounds facilitate retention of plant biomass and nutrition during storage, and they degrade over time. Alpine avens (Geum rossii, Rosales: Rosaceae) is a high‐phenolic plant species that comprises up to 75% of pika haypiles in Colorado. Here, we tested the hypothesis that contemporary climate change has affected the nutritional value of alpine avens to pikas in the last 30 years. Specifically, we compared phenolic activity, nutritional quality, and overwinter preservation of plants collected at Niwot Ridge, Colorado (USA), in 1992 to those collected between 2010 and 2018, spanning nearly three decades of climate change. Phenolic activity increased in alpine avens since 1992, while fiber and nitrogen content decreased. Importantly, overwinter preservation of plant biomass also increased, particularly on windblown slopes without long‐lasting snow cover. Previous studies indicate that pikas at this site still depend on alpine avens for their winter food caches. Higher phenolic content in alpine avens could therefore enhance the preservation of haypiles over winter; however, if pikas must further delay consuming these plants to avoid toxicity or invest extra energy in detoxification, then the nutritional gains from enhanced preservation may not be beneficial. This study provides important insights into how climate‐driven changes in plant chemistry will affect mammalian herbivores in the future

The Impacts of the Molecular Education and Research Consortium in Undergraduate Computational Chemistry on the Careers of Women in Computational Chemistry

The Molecular Education and Research Consortium in Undergraduate Computational Chemistry (MERCURY) has supported a diverse group of faculty and students for over 20 years by providing computational resources as well as networking opportunities and professional support. The consortium comprises 38 faculty (42% women) at 34 different institutions, who have trained nearly 900 undergraduate students, more than two-thirds of whom identify as women and one-quarter identify as students of color. MERCURY provides a model for the support necessary for faculty to achieve professional advancement and career satisfaction. The range of experiences and expertise of the consortium members provides excellent networking opportunities that allow MERCURY faculty to support each other’s teaching, research, and service needs, including generating meaningful scientific advancements and outcomes with undergraduate researchers as well as being leaders at the departmental, institutional, and national levels. While all MERCURY faculty benefit from these supports, the disproportionate number of women in the consortium, relative to their representation in computational sciences generally, produces a sizable impact on advancing women in the computational sciences. In this report, the women of MERCURY share how the consortium has benefited their careers and the careers of their students

Antenatal Corticosteroids and Preterm Neonatal Morbidity and Mortality among Women with and without Diabetes in Pregnancy

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine whether antenatal corticosteroid exposure has a differential association with preterm neonatal morbidity among women with and without diabetes. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analysis of an observational cohort of 115,502 women and their neonates born in 25 U.S. hospitals (2008-2011). Women who delivered at 23 to 33 weeks\u27 gestation and received antenatal corticosteroids were compared with those who did not receive antenatal corticosteroids. Women with a stillbirth and women who delivered a neonate that was not resuscitated were excluded. The primary outcome was neonatal respiratory distress syndrome or death within 48 hours. Secondary outcomes included composite neonatal morbidity (respiratory distress syndrome, necrotizing enterocolitis, grades 3-4 intraventricular hemorrhage, sepsis, or death) and mechanical ventilation. Multivariable modified Poisson regression was used to estimate the association between antenatal corticosteroid exposure and neonatal outcomes. Maternal diabetes (pregestational and gestational) was evaluated as a potential effect modifier, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate whether receipt of a partial, single, or multiple course(s) of antenatal corticosteroids influenced results. RESULTS: A total of 4,429 women with 5,259 neonates met inclusion criteria: 3,716 (83.9%) women received antenatal corticosteroids and 713 (16.1%) did not. Of the 510 diabetic women (181 pregestational and 329 gestational), 439 (86.1%) received antenatal corticosteroids. Of the 3,919 nondiabetic women, 3,277 (83.6%) received antenatal corticosteroids. Antenatal corticosteroid exposure was not associated with respiratory distress syndrome or early death (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.85-1.04), composite neonatal morbidity (aRR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.89-1.07), or mechanical ventilation (aRR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.86-1.05). There was no significant effect modification of maternal diabetes on the relationship between antenatal corticosteroids and neonatal outcomes ( \u3e 0.05), and outcomes were similar in sensitivity analyses of partial, single, or multiple courses of corticosteroids. DISCUSSION: Antenatal corticosteroid administered to reduce preterm neonatal morbidity does not appear to have a differential association among women with diabetes compared with those without. KEY POINTS: · Antenatal corticosteroids are used ubiquitously in women with and without diabetes.. · Maternal diabetes does not appear to modify the neonatal effect of antenatal corticosteroids.. · Larger studies of antenatal corticosteroids are needed to confirm our findings in diabetic women.