Natural direct and indirect effects on the exposed : effect decomposition under weaker assumptions

We define natural direct and indirect effects on the exposed. We show that these allow for effect decomposition under weaker identification conditions than population natural direct and indirect effects. When no confounders of the mediator-outcome association are affected by the exposure, identification is possible under essentially the same conditions as for controlled direct effects. Otherwise, identification is still possible with additional knowledge on a nonidentifiable selection-bias function which measures the dependence of the mediator effect on the observed exposure within confounder levels, and which evaluates to zero in a large class of realistic data-generating mechanisms. We argue that natural direct and indirect effects on the exposed are of intrinsic interest in various applications. We moreover show that they coincide with the corresponding population natural direct and indirect effects when the exposure is randomly assigned. In such settings, our results are thus also of relevance for assessing population natural direct and indirect effects in the presence of exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounding, which existing methodology has not been able to address

The effect of adherence to statin therapy on cardiovascular mortality : quantification of unmeasured bias using falsification end-points

Background: To determine the clinical effectiveness of statins on cardiovascular mortality in practice, observational studies are needed. Control for confounding is essential in any observational study. Falsification end-points may be useful to determine if bias is present after adjustment has taken place. Methods: We followed starters on statin therapy in the Netherlands aged 46 to 100 years over the period 1996 to 2012, from initiation of statin therapy until cardiovascular mortality or censoring. Within this group (n = 49,688, up to 16 years of follow-up), we estimated the effect of adherence to statin therapy (0 = completely non-adherent, 1 = fully adherent) on ischemic heart diseases and cerebrovascular disease (ICD10-codes I20-I25 and I60-I69) as well as respiratory and endocrine disease mortality (ICD10-codes J00-J99 and E00-E90) as falsification end points, controlling for demographic factors, socio-economic factors, birth cohort, adherence to other cardiovascular medications, and diabetes using time-varying Cox regression models. Results: Falsification end-points indicated that a simpler model was less biased than a model with more controls. Adherence to statins appeared to be protective against cardiovascular mortality (HR: 0.70, 95 % CI 0.61 to 0.81). Conclusions: Falsification end-points helped detect overadjustment bias or bias due to competing risks, and thereby proved to be a useful technique in such a complex setting

A statistical test to reject the structural interpretation of a latent factor model

Factor analysis is often used to assess whether a single univariate latent variable is sufficient to explain most of the covariance among a set of indicators for some underlying construct. When evidence suggests that a single factor is adequate, research often proceeds by using a univariate summary of the indicators in subsequent research. Implicit in such practices is the assumption that it is the underlying latent, rather than the indicators, that is causally efficacious. The assumption that the indicators do not have effects on anything subsequent, and that they are themselves only affected by antecedents through the underlying latent is a strong assumption, effectively imposing a structural interpretation on the latent factor model. In this paper, we show that this structural assumption has empirically testable implications, even though the latent is unobserved. We develop a statistical test to potentially reject the structural interpretation of a latent factor model. We apply this test to data concerning associations between the Satisfaction-with-Life-Scale and subsequent all-cause mortality, which provides strong evidence against a structural interpretation for a univariate latent underlying the scale. Discussion is given to the implications of this result for the development, evaluation, and use of measures related to latent factor models

Instrumental Variable Estimation in a Survival Context

Bias due to unobserved confounding can seldom be ruled out with certainty when estimating the causal effect of a nonrandomized treatment. The instrumental variable (IV) design offers, under certain assumptions, the opportunity to tame confounding bias, without directly observing all confounders. The IV approach is very well developed in the context of linear regression and also for certain generalized linear models with a nonlinear link function. However, IV methods are not as well developed for regression analysis with a censored survival outcome. In this article, we develop the IV approach for regression analysis in a survival context, primarily under an additive hazards model, for which we describe 2 simple methods for estimating causal effects. The first method is a straightforward 2-stage regression approach analogous to 2-stage least squares commonly used for IV analysis in linear regression. In this approach, the fitted value from a first-stage regression of the exposure on the IV is entered in place of the exposure in the second-stage hazard model to recover a valid estimate of the treatment effect of interest. The second method is a so-called control function approach, which entails adding to the additive hazards outcome model, the residual from a first-stage regression of the exposure on the IV. Formal conditions are given justifying each strategy, and the methods are illustrated in a novel application to a Mendelian randomization study to evaluate the effect of diabetes on mortality using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We also establish that analogous strategies can also be used under a proportional hazards model specification, provided the outcome is rare over the entire follow-up

Intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bacteraemia and ICU mortality and discharge:Addressing time-varying confounding using appropriate methodology

Background: Studies often ignore time-varying confounding or may use inappropriate methodology to adjust for time-varying confounding. Aim: To estimate the effect of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bacteraemia on ICU mortality and discharge using appropriate methodology. Methods: Marginal structural models with inverse probability weighting were used to estimate the ICU mortality and discharge associated with ICU-acquired bacteraemia among patients who stayed more than two days at the general ICU of a London teaching hospital and remained bacteraemia-free during those first two days. For comparison, the same associations were evaluated with (i) a conventional Cox model, adjusting only for baseline confounders and (ii) a Cox model adjusting for baseline and time-varying confounders. Findings: Using the marginal structural model with inverse probability weighting, bacteraemia was associated with an increase in ICU mortality (cause-specific hazard ratio (CSHR): 1.29; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.63)and a decrease in discharge (CSHR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.45-0.60). By 60 days, among patients still in the ICU after two days and without prior bacteraemia, 8.0% of ICU deaths could be prevented by preventing all ICU-acquired bacteraemia cases. The conventional Cox model adjusting for time-varying confounders gave substantially different results [for ICU mortality, CSHR: 1.08 (95% CI: 0.88-1.32); for discharge, CSHR: 0.68 (95% CI: 0.60-0.77)]. Conclusion: In this study, even after adjusting for the timing of acquiring bacteraemia and time-varying confounding using inverse probability weighting for marginal structura

Two rapid assays for screening of patulin biodegradation

Artículo sobre distintos ensayos para comprobar la biodegradación de la patulinaThe mycotoxin patulin is produced by the blue mould pathogen Penicillium expansum in rotting apples during postharvest storage. Patulin is toxic to a wide range of organisms, including humans, animals, fungi and bacteria. Wash water from apple packing and processing houses often harbours patulin and fungal spores, which can contaminate the environment. Ubiquitous epiphytic yeasts, such as Rhodosporidium kratochvilovae strain LS11 which is a biocontrol agent of P. expansum in apples, have the capacity to resist the toxicity of patulin and to biodegrade it. Two non-toxic products are formed. One is desoxypatulinic acid. The aim of the work was to develop rapid, high-throughput bioassays for monitoring patulin degradation in multiple samples. Escherichia coli was highly sensitive to patulin, but insensitive to desoxypatulinic acid. This was utilized to develop a detection test for patulin, replacing time-consuming thin layer chromatography or high-performance liquid chromatography. Two assays for patulin degradation were developed, one in liquid medium and the other in semi-solid medium. Both assays allow the contemporary screening of a large number of samples. The liquid medium assay utilizes 96-well microtiter plates and was optimized for using a minimum of patulin. The semisolid medium assay has the added advantage of slowing down the biodegradation, which allows the study and isolation of transient degradation products. The two assays are complementary and have several areas of utilization, from screening a bank of microorganisms for biodegradation ability to the study of biodegradation pathways

Integrated multiple mediation analysis: A robustness–specificity trade-off in causal structure

Recent methodological developments in causal mediation analysis have addressed several issues regarding multiple mediators. However, these developed methods differ in their definitions of causal parameters, assumptions for identification, and interpretations of causal effects, making it unclear which method ought to be selected when investigating a given causal effect. Thus, in this study, we construct an integrated framework, which unifies all existing methodologies, as a standard for mediation analysis with multiple mediators. To clarify the relationship between existing methods, we propose four strategies for effect decomposition: two-way, partially forward, partially backward, and complete decompositions. This study reveals how the direct and indirect effects of each strategy are explicitly and correctly interpreted as path-specific effects under different causal mediation structures. In the integrated framework, we further verify the utility of the interventional analogues of direct and indirect effects, especially when natural direct and indirect effects cannot be identified or when cross-world exchangeability is invalid. Consequently, this study yields a robustness–specificity trade-off in the choice of strategies. Inverse probability weighting is considered for estimation. The four strategies are further applied to a simulation study for performance evaluation and for analyzing the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer data set from Taiwan to investigate the causal effect of hepatitis C virus infection on mortality

Transient Cognitive Impairment and White Matter Hyperintensities in Severely Depressed Older Patients Treated With Electroconvulsive Therapy

BACKGROUND: Although electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is a safe and effective treatment for patients with severe late life depression (LLD), transient cognitive impairment can be a reason to discontinue the treatment. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the association between structural brain characteristics and general cognitive function during and after ECT. METHODS: A total of 80 patients with LLD from the prospective naturalistic follow-up Mood Disorders in Elderly treated with Electroconvulsive Therapy study were examined. Magnetic resonance imaging scans were acquired before ECT. Overall brain morphology (white and grey matter) was evaluated using visual rating scales. Cognitive functioning before, during, and after ECT was measured using the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE). A linear mixed-model analysis was performed to analyze the association between structural brain alterations and cognitive functioning over time. RESULTS: Patients with moderate to severe white matter hyperintensities (WMH) showed significantly lower MMSE scores than patients without severe WMH (F(1,75.54) = 5.42, p = 0.02) before, during, and post-ECT, however their trajectory of cognitive functioning was similar as no time × WMH interaction effect was observed (F(4,65.85) = 1.9, p = 0.25). Transient cognitive impairment was not associated with medial temporal or global cortical atrophy (MTA, GCA). CONCLUSION: All patients showed a significant drop in cognitive functioning during ECT, which however recovered above baseline levels post-ECT and remained stable until at least 6 months post-ECT, independently of severity of WMH, GCA, or MTA. Therefore, clinicians should not be reluctant to start or continue ECT in patients with severe structural brain alterations