Concentration, Spin and Shape of Dark Matter Haloes as a Function of the Cosmological Model: WMAP1, WMAP3 and WMAP5 results

We investigate the effects of changes in the cosmological parameters between the WMAP 1st, 3rd, and 5th year results on the structure of dark matter haloes. We use a set of simulations that cover 5 decades in halo mass ranging from the scales of dwarf galaxies (V_c ~30 km/s) to clusters of galaxies (V_c ~ 1000 km/s). We find that the concentration mass relation is a power law in all three cosmologies. However the slope is shallower and the zero point is lower moving from WMAP1 to WMAP5 to WMAP3. For haloes of mass log(M_200/Msun) = 10, 12, and 14 the differences in the concentration parameter between WMAP1 and WMAP3 are a factor of 1.55, 1.41, and 1.29, respectively. As we show, this brings the central densities of dark matter haloes in good agreement with the central densities of dwarf and low surface brightness galaxies inferred from their rotation curves, for both the WMAP3 and WMAP5 cosmologies. We also show that none of the existing toy models for the concentration-mass relation can reproduce our simulation results over the entire range of masses probed. In particular, the model of Bullock et al (B01) fails at the higher mass end (M > 1e13 Msun), while the NFW model of Navarro, Frenk & White (1997) fails dramatically at the low mass end (M < 1e12 Msun). We present a new model, based on a simple modification of that of B01, which reproduces the concentration-mass relations in our simulations over the entire range of masses probed (1e10 Msun < M < 1e15 Msun). Haloes in the WMAP3 cosmology (at a fixed mass) are more flatted compared to the WMAP1 cosmology, with a medium to long axis ration reduced by ~10 %. Finally, we show that the distribution of halo spin parameters is the same for all three cosmologies.Comment: 16 pages, 16 figures, references updated, minor changes. Accepted for publication on MNRAS. WMAP5 simulations available upon reques

What makes or breaks a campaign to stop an invading plant pathogen?

Diseases in humans, animals and plants remain an important challenge in our society. Effective control of invasive pathogens often requires coordinated concerted action of a large group of stakeholders. Both epidemiological and human behavioural factors influence the outcome of a disease control campaign. In mathematical models that are frequently used to guide such campaigns, human behaviour is often ill-represented, if at all. Existing models of human, animal and plant disease that do incorporate participation or compliance are often driven by pay-offs or direct observations of the disease state. It is however very well known that opinion is an important driving factor of human decision making. Here we consider the case study of Citrus Huanglongbing disease (HLB), which is an acute bacterial disease that threatens the sustainability of citrus production across the world. We show how by coupling an epidemiological model of this invasive disease with an opinion dynamics model we are able to answer the question: What makes or breaks the effectiveness of a disease control campaign? Frequent contact between stakeholders and advisors is shown to increase the probability of successful control. More surprisingly, we show that informing stakeholders about the effectiveness of control methods is of much greater importance than prematurely increasing their perceptions of the risk of infection. We discuss the overarching consequences of this finding and the effect on human as well as plant disease epidemics

Meta-Learning for Phonemic Annotation of Corpora

We apply rule induction, classifier combination and meta-learning (stacked classifiers) to the problem of bootstrapping high accuracy automatic annotation of corpora with pronunciation information. The task we address in this paper consists of generating phonemic representations reflecting the Flemish and Dutch pronunciations of a word on the basis of its orthographic representation (which in turn is based on the actual speech recordings). We compare several possible approaches to achieve the text-to-pronunciation mapping task: memory-based learning, transformation-based learning, rule induction, maximum entropy modeling, combination of classifiers in stacked learning, and stacking of meta-learners. We are interested both in optimal accuracy and in obtaining insight into the linguistic regularities involved. As far as accuracy is concerned, an already high accuracy level (93% for Celex and 86% for Fonilex at word level) for single classifiers is boosted significantly with additional error reductions of 31% and 38% respectively using combination of classifiers, and a further 5% using combination of meta-learners, bringing overall word level accuracy to 96% for the Dutch variant and 92% for the Flemish variant. We also show that the application of machine learning methods indeed leads to increased insight into the linguistic regularities determining the variation between the two pronunciation variants studied.Comment: 8 page

Towards a Concordant Model of Halo Occupation Statistics

We use the conditional luminosity function (CLF) and data from the 2dFGRS to constrain the average relation between light and mass in a LCDM cosmology with Omega_m=0.23 and sigma_8=0.74 (hereafter WMAP3 cosmology). Reproducing the observed luminosity dependence of the galaxy two-point correlation function results in average mass-to-light ratios that are about 35 percent lower than in a LCDM cosmology with Omega_m=0.3 and sigma_8=0.9 (hereafter WMAP1 cosmology). This removes an important problem with previous halo occupation models which had a tendency to predict cluster mass-to-light ratios that were too high. For the WMAP3 cosmology our model yields average mass-to-light ratios, central galaxy luminosities, halo occupation numbers, satellite fractions, and luminosity-gap statistics, that are all in excellent agreement with those obtained from a 2dFGRS group catalogue and from other independent studies. We also use our CLF model to compute the probability distribution P(M|L_cen), that a central galaxy of luminosity L_cen resides in a halo of mass M. We find this distribution to be much broader than what is typically assumed in HOD models, which has important implications for the interpretation of galaxy-galaxy lensing data. Finally, reproducing the luminosity dependence of the pairwise velocity dispersions in the 2dFGRS requires relatively low mass-to-light ratios for clusters and a satellite fraction that decreases strongly with increasing luminosity. This is only marginally consistent with our CLF constraints. We argue that a cosmology with parameters between those of the WMAP1 and WMAP3 cosmologies is likely to yield results with a higher level of consistency.Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures. Submitted for publication in MNRA

The Population of Dark Matter Subhaloes: Mass Functions and Average Mass Loss Rates

Using a cosmological N-Body simulation and a sample of re-simulated cluster-like haloes, we study the mass loss rates of dark matter subhaloes, and interpret the mass function of subhaloes at redshift zero in terms of the evolution of the mass function of systems accreted by the main halo progenitor. When expressed in terms of the ratio between the mass of the subhalo at the time of accretion and the present day host mass the unevolved subhalo mass function is found to be universal. However, the subhalo mass function at redshift zero clearly depends on $M_0$, in that more massive host haloes host more subhaloes. To relate the unevolved and evolved subhalo mass functions, we measure the subhalo mass loss rate as a function of host mass and redshift. We find that the average, specific mass loss rate of dark matter subhaloes depends mainly on redshift. These results suggest a pleasingly simple picture for the evolution and mass dependence of the evolved subhalo mass function. Less massive host haloes accrete their subhaloes earlier, which are thus subjected to mass loss for a longer time. In addition, their subhaloes are typically accreted by denser hosts, which causes an additional boost of the mass loss rate. To test the self-consistency of this picture, we use a merger trees constructed using the extended Press-Schechter formalism, and evolve the subhalo populations using the average mass loss rates obtained from our simulations, finding the subhalo mass functions to be in good agreement with the simulations. [abridged]Comment: 12 pages, 12 figures; submitted to MNRA

Supermassive Black Holes and Galaxy Formation

The formation of supermassive black holes (SMBH) is intimately related to galaxy formation, although precisely how remains a mystery. I speculate that formation of, and feedback from, SMBH may alleviate problems that have arisen in our understanding of the cores of dark halos of galaxies.Comment: Talk at conference on Matter in the Universe, March 2001, ISSI Ber