Spatial modelling framework for the characterisation of rainfall extremes at different durations and under climate change

This paper describes a statistical modelling framework for the characterisation of rainfall extremes over a region of interest. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, the data are assumed to follow the generalised extreme value distribution, whose parameters are modelled as spatial Gaussian processes in the latent process layer. We also integrate a parametric relationship between precipitation maxima accumulated over increasing durations. The inference of the model parameters is thus improved by pooling information across both space and accumulation duration. In addition, we propose and investigate two different approaches for the integration of daily and sub-daily rainfall data within the framework. We also demonstrate how information from a regional climate model can be integrated to enable the investigation of future projections of extreme rainfall characteristics. We apply the proposed methodology to precipitation datasets from two large-scale study regions located on the east coast of Australia. The models are fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, and we present estimated model parameters and posterior inferences of return levels at various durations and sites of interest. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework in spatially extrapolating the inference to locations other than those at which direct rainfall measurements are available. We also provide comparisons between rainfall extremes at various durations obtained for the current climate and those based on future projections from a regional climate model. Both methods proposed for the integration of daily and sub-daily records were found to yield similar results in terms of model performance and computational requirements

Late Glacial and Holocene Palaeolake History of the Última Esperanza Region of Southern Patagonia

We undertook multi-proxy analyses on two sediment cores from Lago Pato, a small lake basin at 51°S topographically separated from Lago del Toro in Torres del Paine (TdP), to provide insights into glacier dynamics and lake-level change in the TdP and Última Esperanza region over the last ∼30,000 cal a BP (30 ka). Lago Pato is situated in a region overridden by the Southern Patagonian Ice Field during the Last Glacial and in a transitional climatic zone of Southern Patagonia sensitive to seasonal- to millennial-scale changes in the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW). Results show that a deep ice-dammed and enlarged palaeolake encompassed Lago del Toro and Lago Pato c. 30–20 ka after the ice had retreated from local-Last Glacial Maximum (l-LGM) limits at c. 48–34 ka and during the build-up to the global-Last Glacial Maximum (g-LGM), c. 26–19 ka. Gaps in both sediment records between c. 20–13.4 ka and c. 20–10 ka suggest hiatuses in sediment accumulation during the g-LGM and Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) readvances and/or removal by lake lowering or flushing during the Late Glacial–early Holocene. The palaeolake level dropped from >100 m a.s.l. to ∼40–50 m a.s.l. towards the end of the ACR c. 13.4–13.0 ka, creating a shallower glaciolacustrine environment dammed by an ice tongue in the Estancia Puerto Consuelo–Última Esperanza fjord. Further lowering of the enlarged palaeolake level occurred when the ice thinned to <40 m a.s.l., eventually isolating Lago Pato from Lago del Toro and glaciogenic sediment input at c. 11.7 ka. After isolation, the ecology and water levels in Lago Pato became sensitive to regional climate shifts. The shallow, stable, and highly anoxic environment that developed after c. 11.7 ka is associated with weaker (or poleward shifted) SWW at 51°S and was replaced at c. 10 ka by an increasingly productive shallow-littoral lake with a variable lake-level and periodic shifts in anoxic-oxic bottom water conditions and ratios of benthic-planktonic diatoms. A more open Nothofagus forest, established at c. 8.6–7.5 ka, and more arid conditions c. 7.5–5.7 cal ka BP are linked to another phase of weaker (or poleward shifted) SWW at 51°S. More persistently wet conditions from c. 5.7 ka, with extensive closed Nothofagus forests and planktonic diatoms dominant, are associated with stronger (or equatorward shifted) SWW over 51°S. The abrupt return of benthic-to-tychoplanktonic diatoms after c. 3 ka reflects enhanced SWW at 51°S. Increasingly stable lacustrine and littoral wetland conditions established in the last ∼500 years reflect weaker SWW and lasted until recent decades

The first determination of Generalized Polarizabilities of the proton by a Virtual Compton Scattering experiment

Absolute differential cross sections for the reaction (e+p -> e+p+gamma) have been measured at a four-momentum transfer with virtuality Q^2=0.33 GeV^2 and polarization \epsilon = 0.62 in the range 33.6 to 111.5 MeV/c for the momentum of the outgoing photon in the photon-proton center of mass frame. The experiment has been performed with the high resolution spectrometers at the Mainz Microtron MAMI. From the photon angular distributions, two structure functions which are a linear combination of the generalized polarizabilities have been determined for the first time.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

In July 2021 extreme rainfall across Western Europe caused severe flooding and substantial impacts, including over 200 fatalities and extensive infrastructure damage within Germany and the Benelux countries. After the event, a hydrological assessment and a probabilistic event attribution analysis of rainfall data were initiated and complemented by discussing the vulnerability and exposure context. The global mean surface temperature (GMST) served as a covariate in a generalised extreme value distribution fitted to observational and model data, exploiting the dependence on GMST to estimate how anthropogenic climate change affects the likelihood and severity of extreme events. Rainfall accumulations in Ahr/Erft and the Belgian Meuse catchment vastly exceeded previous observed records. In regions of that limited size the robust estimation of return values and the detection and attribution of rainfall trends are challenging. However, for the larger Western European region it was found that, under current climate conditions, on average one rainfall event of this magnitude can be expected every 400 years at any given location. Consequently, within the entire region, events of similar magnitude are expected to occur more frequently than once in 400 years. Anthropogenic climate change has already increased the intensity of the maximum 1-day rainfall event in the summer season by 3–19 %. The likelihood of such an event to occur today compared to a 1.2 ∘ C cooler climate has increased by a factor of 1.2–9. Models indicate that intensity and frequency of such events will further increase with future global warming. While attribution of small-scale events remains challenging, this study shows that there is a robust increase in the likelihood and severity of rainfall events such as the ones causing extreme impacts in July 2021 when considering a larger region

Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

In July 2021 extreme rainfall across Western Europe caused severe flooding and substantial impacts, including over 200 fatalities and extensive infrastructure damage within Germany and the Benelux countries. After the event, a hydrological assessment and a probabilistic event attribution analysis of rainfall data were initiated and complemented by discussing the vulnerability and exposure context. The global mean surface temperature (GMST) served as a covariate in a generalised extreme value distribution fitted to observational and model data, exploiting the dependence on GMST to estimate how anthropogenic climate change affects the likelihood and severity of extreme events. Rainfall accumulations in Ahr/Erft and the Belgian Meuse catchment vastly exceeded previous observed records. In regions of that limited size the robust estimation of return values and the detection and attribution of rainfall trends are challenging. However, for the larger Western European region it was found that, under current climate conditions, on average one rainfall event of this magnitude can be expected every 400 years at any given location. Consequently, within the entire region, events of similar magnitude are expected to occur more frequently than once in 400 years. Anthropogenic climate change has already increased the intensity of the maximum 1-day rainfall event in the summer season by 3–19 %. The likelihood of such an event to occur today compared to a 1.2 $$^{\circ }$$C cooler climate has increased by a factor of 1.2–9. Models indicate that intensity and frequency of such events will further increase with future global warming. While attribution of small-scale events remains challenging, this study shows that there is a robust increase in the likelihood and severity of rainfall events such as the ones causing extreme impacts in July 2021 when considering a larger region

First results from the GDH experiment on the proton at MAMI.

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