Evolutionary instability of Zero Determinant strategies demonstrates that winning isn't everything

Zero Determinant (ZD) strategies are a new class of probabilistic and conditional strategies that are able to unilaterally set the expected payoff of an opponent in iterated plays of the Prisoner's Dilemma irrespective of the opponent's strategy, or else to set the ratio between a ZD player's and their opponent's expected payoff. Here we show that while ZD strategies are weakly dominant, they are not evolutionarily stable and will instead evolve into less coercive strategies. We show that ZD strategies with an informational advantage over other players that allows them to recognize other ZD strategies can be evolutionarily stable (and able to exploit other players). However, such an advantage is bound to be short-lived as opposing strategies evolve to counteract the recognition.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures. Change in title (again!) to comply with Nature Communications requirements. To appear in Nature Communication

The diplomat's dilemma: Maximal power for minimal effort in social networks

Closeness is a global measure of centrality in networks, and a proxy for how influential actors are in social networks. In most network models, and many empirical networks, closeness is strongly correlated with degree. However, in social networks there is a cost of maintaining social ties. This leads to a situation (that can occur in the professional social networks of executives, lobbyists, diplomats and so on) where agents have the conflicting objectives of aiming for centrality while simultaneously keeping the degree low. We investigate this situation in an adaptive network-evolution model where agents optimize their positions in the network following individual strategies, and using only local information. The strategies are also optimized, based on the success of the agent and its neighbors. We measure and describe the time evolution of the network and the agents' strategies.Comment: Submitted to Adaptive Networks: Theory, Models and Applications, to be published from Springe

Red Queen Coevolution on Fitness Landscapes

Species do not merely evolve, they also coevolve with other organisms. Coevolution is a major force driving interacting species to continuously evolve ex- ploring their fitness landscapes. Coevolution involves the coupling of species fit- ness landscapes, linking species genetic changes with their inter-specific ecological interactions. Here we first introduce the Red Queen hypothesis of evolution com- menting on some theoretical aspects and empirical evidences. As an introduction to the fitness landscape concept, we review key issues on evolution on simple and rugged fitness landscapes. Then we present key modeling examples of coevolution on different fitness landscapes at different scales, from RNA viruses to complex ecosystems and macroevolution.Comment: 40 pages, 12 figures. To appear in "Recent Advances in the Theory and Application of Fitness Landscapes" (H. Richter and A. Engelbrecht, eds.). Springer Series in Emergence, Complexity, and Computation, 201

Proliferation Index: A Continuous Model to Predict Prognosis in Patients with Tumours of the Ewing's Sarcoma Family

The prognostic value of proliferation index (PI) and apoptotic index (AI), caspase-8, -9 and -10 expression have been investigated in primary Ewing's sarcoma family of tumours (ESFT). Proliferating cells, detected by immunohistochemistry for Ki-67, were identified in 91% (91/100) of tumours with a median PI of 14 (range 0–87). Apoptotic cells, identified using the TUNEL assay, were detected in 96% (76/79) of ESFT; the median AI was 3 (range 0–33). Caspase-8 protein expression was negative (0) in 14% (11/79), low (1) in 33% (26/79), medium (2) in 38% (30/79) and high (3) in 15% (12/79) of tumours, caspase-9 expression was low (1) in 66% (39/59) and high (3) in 34% (20/59), and caspase-10 protein was low (1) in 37% (23/62) and negative (0) in 63% (39/62) of primary ESFT. There was no apparent relationship between caspase-8, -9 and -10 expression, PI and AI. PI was predictive of relapse-free survival (RFS; p = 0.011) and overall survival (OS; p = <0.001) in a continuous model, whereas AI did not predict outcome. Patients with tumours expressing low levels of caspase-9 protein had a trend towards a worse RFS than patients with tumours expressing higher levels of caspase-9 protein (p = 0.054, log rank test), although expression of caspases-8, -9 and/or -10 did not significantly predict RFS or OS. In a multivariate analysis model that included tumour site, tumour volume, the presence of metastatic disease at diagnosis, PI and AI, PI independently predicts OS (p = 0.003). Consistent with previous publications, patients with pelvic tumours had a significantly worse OS than patients with tumours at other sites (p = 0.028); patients with a pelvic tumour and a PI≥20 had a 6 fold-increased risk of death. These studies advocate the evaluation of PI in a risk model of outcome for patients with ESFT

Conformational adaptation of Asian macaque TRIMCyp directs lineage specific antiviral activity

TRIMCyps are anti-retroviral proteins that have arisen independently in New World and Old World primates. All TRIMCyps comprise a CypA domain fused to the tripartite domains of TRIM5α but they have distinct lentiviral specificities, conferring HIV-1 restriction in New World owl monkeys and HIV-2 restriction in Old World rhesus macaques. Here we provide evidence that Asian macaque TRIMCyps have acquired changes that switch restriction specificity between different lentiviral lineages, resulting in species-specific alleles that target different viruses. Structural, thermodynamic and viral restriction analysis suggests that a single mutation in the Cyp domain, R69H, occurred early in macaque TRIMCyp evolution, expanding restriction specificity to the lentiviral lineages found in African green monkeys, sooty mangabeys and chimpanzees. Subsequent mutations have enhanced restriction to particular viruses but at the cost of broad specificity. We reveal how specificity is altered by a scaffold mutation, E143K, that modifies surface electrostatics and propagates conformational changes into the active site. Our results suggest that lentiviruses may have been important pathogens in Asian macaques despite the fact that there are no reported lentiviral infections in current macaque populations

Rapid and adaptive evolution of MHC genes under parasite selection in experimental vertebrate populations

The genes of the major histocompatibility complex are the most polymorphic genes in vertebrates, with more than 1,000 alleles described in human populations. How this polymorphism is maintained, however, remains an evolutionary puzzle. Major histocompatibility complex genes have a crucial function in the adaptive immune system by presenting parasite-derived antigens to T lymphocytes. Because of this function, varying parasite-mediated selection has been proposed as a major evolutionary force for maintaining major histocompatibility complex polymorphism. A necessary prerequisite of such a balancing selection process is rapid major histocompatibility complex allele frequency shifts resulting from emerging selection by a specific parasite. Here we show in six experimental populations of sticklebacks, each exposed to one of two different parasites, that only those major histocompatibility complex alleles providing resistance to the respective specific parasite increased in frequency in the next host generation. This result demonstrates experimentally that varying parasite selection causes rapid adaptive evolutionary changes, thus facilitating the maintenance of major histocompatibility complex polymorphism

Smaller Gene Networks Permit Longer Persistence in Fast-Changing Environments

The environments in which organisms live and reproduce are rarely static, and as the environment changes, populations must evolve so that phenotypes match the challenges presented. The quantitative traits that map to environmental variables are underlain by hundreds or thousands of interacting genes whose allele frequencies and epistatic relationships must change appropriately for adaptation to occur. Extending an earlier model in which individuals possess an ecologically-critical trait encoded by gene networks of 16 to 256 genes and random or scale-free topology, I test the hypothesis that smaller, scale-free networks permit longer persistence times in a constantly-changing environment. Genetic architecture interacting with the rate of environmental change accounts for 78% of the variance in trait heritability and 66% of the variance in population persistence times. When the rate of environmental change is high, the relationship between network size and heritability is apparent, with smaller and scale-free networks conferring a distinct advantage for persistence time. However, when the rate of environmental change is very slow, the relationship between network size and heritability disappears and populations persist the duration of the simulations, without regard to genetic architecture. These results provide a link between genes and population dynamics that may be tested as the -omics and bioinformatics fields mature, and as we are able to determine the genetic basis of ecologically-relevant quantitative traits