Who Responds to Voluntary Cognitive Tests in Household Surveys? The Role of Labour Market Status, Respondent Confidence, Motivation and a Culture of Learning in South Africa

Both South Africa’s labour market and education system were directly influenced by the separate development policies of the apartheid regime. To this day, great inequalities persist in both domains. South Africa’s performance in standardized international test scores (such as TIMMS) is poor even relative to most developing countries. Furthermore, the better quality of outcomes in former white schools still leaves learners from former black schools at a disadvantage that feeds through to severe labour market inequalities. This study is the first in a series of papers that attempts to understand the role of school quality on labour market outcomes. Here we scrutinize the measurement of numeracy test scores in the National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS) of 2008, particularly in light of potential sample selection issues. While this survey measures standard welfare and labour market indicators, it is one of the first in South Africa to also ask respondents to complete a concurrent numeracy test. Response rates on this module were particularly low, given that the test was taken on a voluntary basis. We develop a basic empirical model to understand who is likely to take the test. We postulate that discouraged workers’ low propensity to take the test is correlated with their reduced motivation to undertake job search, that the searching unemployed are highly motivated to take the test (as they wish to gauge their ability or practice assessments while embarking on the job search process), the poorest among the self-employed face severe time opportunity costs (as their low incomes are less secure than those of salaried workers) and the richest amongst the employed exhibit an income effect (in that the time opportunity costs of their high incomes reduce their willingness to respond to the numeracy test). Furthermore, locational effects suggest that those residing in geographical “points of entry” into the labour market are also more likely to take the test. The young (who are still in education) and the most educated (in the whole population) also tend to answer the test more readily. The latter observations indicate that some form of confidence in respondents’ own abilities drives their response patterns. To explain these observed features, we construct composite indices of motivation/emotional well-being and individuals’ confidence in their writing abilities using multiple correspondence analysis. While each of these psychological and behavioural factors is a strong predictor of test response, they do not entirely eliminate the independent contributions of each of the observed influences mentioned above. Coefficient magnitudes of each of the sociodemographic variables are, however, reduced, indicating that the particular behavioural influences introduced in later models tell some of the story. Additional uncaptured behavioural and motivational factors are therefore investigated. Firstly, we investigate the role of survey fatigue (by controlling for the time it took to complete the survey before the test was administered), which plays an important role in the black and coloured subpopulations. It furthermore explains why the wealthiest amongst the formally employed are less likely to complete the numeracy test. However, surprisingly, “pseudoaltruistic” effects appear amongst the (wealthier) white population, in that the longer the duration of the preceding questions, the more likely they are to care about answering the test. However, this result cannot be generalized to the whole white population, as response rates were very low among this group. Secondly, (household) peer effects are strong throughout the population, suggesting that a culture of learning is pivotal in understanding response patterns. The results of this paper suggest that broad sociodemographic and labour market features remain important determinants of test response, even after controlling for behavioural features. This suggests that subsequent labour market work must take these drivers into account to avoid the risk of sample selection bias.education, behavioural economics, survey design, voluntary assessment, numeracy, survey non-response, sample selection bias, respondent confidence, motivation, culture of learning, South Africa

Numeric competence, confidence and school quality in the South African wage function: towards understanding pre-labour market discrimination

Highly convex estimates of average returns to education commonly found in South Africa are usually rationalised as being the result of a surplus of unskilled workers and a shortage of skilled workers in the economy (Keswell & Poswell, 2004). However, due to the absence of appropriate micro level data in the past, unbiased estimation of these returns has been difficult. This paper investigates potential sources of estimation bias using the NIDS 2008 survey, one of the first to contain concurrent information on individual labour market outcomes, numeric proficiency and quality of education received (which is highly diverse and unequal across the population). We compare naïve estimates in all relevant sub-samples with estimates that attempt to correct for the sample selection on numeracy (as the test was voluntary), as well as selection into employment. We also correct for (and exploit information on) the choice of test difficulty given to respondents, an option which was not intended in the design stage of the survey. This feature allows rough estimates of the influence of respondents’ confidence in their abilities on wages. More importantly, the sample selection adjustments allow us to control for numeracy and school quality, which influence the classic problem of ability bias in returns to education. We estimate the bias in returns to education as well as the extent of racial labour market discrimination that can be accounted for by schooling outputs rather than other features of the labour market. We assess whether convex returns to education can be explained by an unequal distribution of school quality, or whether conventional explanations (such as labour demand) remain the main explanation. Suggested remedies for selection on the endogenous numeracy measure include instrumental variables and a “Double Heckman” approach. Typical instrumental variables used in labour market analysis are poorly captured and restrict sample sizes to the extent that estimates often become nonsensical. The latter (non-standard) adjustments for sample selection issues show some promise but further evaluation and tests are required to fully rely on these results. Convex returns to education remain strongly present in the African population (after accounting for inequalities in schooling outputs), while they are concave for the white population. Bias in these returns is unreliably estimated for whites and Asians, but is highest for the more educated at a peak of 4.55 and 5.84 percentage points for the African and coloured populations respectively. Returns to numeracy, when more reliably identified, are convex. School outputs (measured in numeracy test scores and historical school performance) constitute a sizable part of discrimination estimates, accounting for between 18% and 36% of unexplained racial wage premia.School quality, Labour Market Discrimination, Returns to Education, South Africa, Affirmative Action, Cognitive Skills

The impact of the international economic crisis on child poverty in South Africa

This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated with the recent global economic crisis in macroeconomic terms in South Africa, the country’s capacity to withstand or cushion these shocks, and the extent of fragility in terms of poverty levels and child wellbeing. The analysis combines macro-economic and micro-economic tools to assess the extent of the crisis’ impact on the country. The study finds that the poverty headcount ratio increases little in the moderate crisis scenario, but substantially under the severe scenario. However, under both scenarios there is a relatively successful return to close to the business as usual trend. It is important to note though that under both scenarios, more poverty sensitive measures (the poverty gap ratio and the poverty severity ratio) decline more, and remain in negative territory longer, showing that the major impact of the crisis is on the poorest, and that this impact is most difficult to overcome.Economic crisis, Computable general equilibrium, Forecasting and simulation, Almost ideal demand system, Child poverty measurement, South Africa

The impact of the international economic crisis on child poverty in South Africa

This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated with the recent global economic crisis in macroeconomic terms in South Africa, the country’s capacity to withstand or cushion these shocks, and the extent of fragility in terms of poverty levels and child wellbeing. The analysis combines macro-economic and micro-economic tools to assess the extent of the crisis’ impact on the country. The study finds that the poverty headcount ratio increases little in the moderate crisis scenario, but substantially under the severe scenario. However, under both scenarios there is a relatively successful return to close to the business as usual trend. It is important to note though that under both scenarios, more poverty sensitive measures (the poverty gap ratio and the poverty severity ratio) decline more, and remain in negative territory longer, showing that the major impact of the crisis is on the poorest, and that this impact is most difficult to overcome.ECONOMIC CRISIS, COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, FORECASTING AND SIMULATION, ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEMS, CHILD POVERTY MEASUREMENT, SOUTH AFRICA

Youth unemployment in South Africa revisited

One of the most pressing socio-economic problems of the South African economy is high youth unemployment. Recent studies only briefly examined how the youths fared since the transition by comparing the 1995 October Household Survey (OHS) with a Labour Force Survey (LFS), and hardly investigated whether the discouraged workseekers are different from the unemployed. Moreover, a new labour market status derivation methodology has been adopted since the inception of Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) in 2008. Although the unemployed in QLFSs are derived similarly as in OHSs and LFSs, the discouraged workseekers are distinguished very differently. This paper applies the QLFS methodology with minor revisions on all LFSs to derive comparable youth labour market trends since 2000, before re-examining the extent of youth unemployment. The characteristics of discouraged workseekers and narrow unemployed are then compared, before investigating whether different policies are needed to boost youth employment in each group.International Bibliography for Social Science

Counteridenticals

A counteridentical is a counterfactual with an identity statement in the antecedent. While counteridenticals generally seem non-trivial, most semantic theories for counterfactuals, when combined with the necessity of identity and distinctness, attribute vacuous truth conditions to such counterfactuals. In light of this, one could try to save the orthodox theories either by appealing to pragmatics or by denying that the antecedents of alleged counteridenticals really contain identity claims. Or one could reject the orthodox theory of counterfactuals in favor of a hyperintensional semantics that accommodates non-trivial counterpossibles. In this paper, I argue that none of these approaches can account for all the peculiar features of counteridenticals. Instead, I propose a modified version of Lewis’s counterpart theory, which rejects the necessity of identity, and show that it can explain all the peculiar features of counteridenticals in a satisfactory way. I conclude by defending the plausibility of contingent identity from objections

Descriptions, truth value intuitions, and questions

International audienceSince the famous debate between Russell (Mind 14: 479–493, 1905, Mind 66: 385–389, 1957) and Strawson (Mind 59: 320–344, 1950; Introduction to logical theory, 1952; Theoria, 30: 96–118, 1964) linguistic intuitions about truth values have been considered notoriously unreliable as a guide to the semantics of definite descriptions. As a result, most existing semantic analyses of definites leave a large number of intuitions unexplained. In this paper, I explore the nature of the relationship between truth value intuitions and non-referring definites. Inspired by comments in Strawson (Introduction to logical theory, 1964), I argue that given certain systematic considerations, one can provide a structured explanation of conflicting intuitions. I show that the intuitions of falsity, which proponents of a Russellian analysis often appeal to, result from evaluating sentences in relation to specific questions in context. This is shown by developing a method for predicting when sentences containing non-referring definites elicit intuitions of falsity. My proposed analysis draws importantly on Roberts (in: Yoon & Kathol (eds.) OSU working papers in Linguistics: vol. 49: Papers in Semantics 1998; in: Horn & Ward (eds.) Handbook of pragmatics, 2004) and recent research in the semantics and pragmatics of focus

A modal ambiguity in for-infinitival relative clauses

This squib presents two puzzles related to an ambiguity found in for-infinitival relative clauses (FIRs). FIRs invariably receive a modal interpretation even in the absence of any overt modal verb. The modal interpretation seems to come in two distinct types, which can be paraphrased by finite relative clauses employing the modal auxiliaries should and could. The two puzzles presented here arise because the availability of the two readings is constrained by factors that are not otherwise known to affect the interpretation of a relative clause. Specifically, we show, first, that “strong” determiners require the FIR to be interpreted as a SHOULD-relative while “weak” determiners allow both interpretations (the Determiner-Modal Generalization). Secondly, we observe that the COULD-interpretation requires a raising (internally headed) structure for the FIR, while the SHOULD-interpretation is compatible with either a raising or a more standard matching (externally headed) structure (the Raising/Matching Generalization)

Mixed Quotation

The central challenge posed by mixed quotation is that it exhibits both regular semantic use and metalinguistic reference, simultaneously. Semanticists disagree considerably on how to capture the interplay between these two meaning aspects. In this case study I present the various semantic approaches to mixed quotation and compare their predictions with respect to empirical phenomena like indexical shifting, projection, and non‐constituent mixed quotation

Processing presuppositions and implicatures: Similarities and differences

Presuppositions and scalar implicatures are traditionally considered to be distinct phenomena, but recent accounts analyze (at least some of) the former as the latter. All else being equal, this “scalar implicature approach to presuppositions” predicts uniform behavior for the two types of inferences. Initial experimental studies comparing them yielded conflicting results. While some found a difference in the Response Time (RT) patterns of scalar implicatures and presuppositions, others found them to be uniform. We argue that the difference in outcomes is attributable to a difference in the type of response being measured: RTs associated with acceptance and rejection responses seem to pattern in opposite ways. Next, we report on a series of experiments to support this, and to compare the behavior of the two inferences more comprehensively. Experiments Ia and Ib look at both acceptance and rejection responses for both inference types, and find uniform patterns once the acceptance vs. rejection variable is factored in. Experiment II adds a new dimension by testing for the influence of prosody on the two inference types, and in this regard a clear difference between them emerges, posing a first substantive challenge to the scalar implicature approach to presuppositions. A third set of experiments investigates yet another prediction of this approach, according to which the presuppositional inference is introduced as a simple entailment in affirmative contexts. This predicts that these presuppositional inferences behave parallel to other entailments. Experiment IIIa compares rejections of affirmative sentences based on either their presuppositional inference or their entailed content and finds that they differ, with greater RTs for the former. As an additional control, Experiments IIIb and IIIc test for parallel differences between two entailments associated with always, which yield uniform results. In sum, while Experiments Ia and Ib are in line with previous findings that presuppositions and scalar implicatures under negation show uniform response time patterns, the differences found in Experiments II and IIIa-c pose a substantial challenge to approaches assimilating the two phenomena, while being entirely in line with the traditional perspective of seeing them as distinct