Як уникнути підйому рівня води?

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales

Towards ecosystem-based management: identifying operational food-web indicators for marine ecosystems

Modern approaches to Ecosystem-Based Management and sustainable use of marine resources must account for the myriad of pressures (interspecies, human and environmental) affecting marine ecosystems. The network of feeding interactions between co-existing species and populations (food webs) are an important aspect of all marine ecosystems and biodiversity. Here we describe and discuss a process to evaluate the selection of operational food-web indicators for use in evaluating marine ecosystem status. This process brought together experts in food-web ecology, marine ecology, and resource management, to identify available indicators that can be used to inform marine management. Standard evaluation criteria (availability and quality of data, conceptual basis, communicability, relevancy to management) were implemented to identify practical food-web indicators ready for operational use and indicators that hold promise for future use in policy and management. The major attributes of the final suite of operational food-web indicators were structure and functioning. Indicators that represent resilience of the marine ecosystem were less developed. Over 60 potential food-web indicators were evaluated and the final selection of operational food-web indicators includes: the primary production required to sustain a fishery, the productivity of seabirds (or charismatic megafauna), zooplankton indicators, primary productivity, integrated trophic indicators, and the biomass of trophic guilds. More efforts should be made to develop thresholds-based reference points for achieving Good Environmental Status. There is also a need for international collaborations to develop indicators that will facilitate management in marine ecosystems used by multiple countries.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

Food web feedbacks drive the response of benthic macrofauna to bottom trawling

Bottom trawl fisheries have significant effects on benthic habitats and communities, and these effects have been studied intensively in the last decades. Most of these studies have related the changes in benthic community composition to direct effect of trawl gears on benthos, through imposed mortality. This line of argumentation ignores the fact that benthic organisms themselves form a complex food web and that bottom trawling may trigger secondary effects through this food web. We studied the potential consequences of such food web effects using a model of benthic predators, filter feeders, deposit feeders and fish. Our analysis shows how inclusion of ecological interactions complicates the relationship between bottom trawling intensity and the state of the benthic community and causes a non-linear and non-monotonic response of the benthic community to trawling. This shows that indirect food web effects can fundamentally alter the response of a benthic ecosystem to bottom trawling, compared to the direct effects of mortality. In light of our results, we argue that indicators of fishing impact on benthos need to account for positive as well as negative effects of bottom trawling, in order to accurately quantify the impact. Our findings highlight that understanding the food web ecology of the benthic ecosystem is crucial for understanding and predicting the effects of trawling on the seafloor. Work that promotes such understanding of the food web ecology seems a more productive research strategy than conducting ever more empirical trawling effect measurements

A simple DEB-based ecosystem model

A minimum stoichiometric carbon and nitrogen model of an entire ecosystem based on Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory is presented. The ecosystem contains nutrients, producers, consumers, decomposers and detritus. All three living groups consist of somatic structure and either one (consumers and decomposers) or two (producers) reserve compartments, hence the living matter is described by seven state variables. Four types of detritus are distinguished. As the system is closed for matter, the dynamics of the nutrients carbon dioxide and ammonium follow automatically from the dynamics of the other 11 state variables. All DEB organisms in the model are V1-morphs, which means that surface area of each organism is proportional to volume. The resulting ontogenetic symmetry implies that complicated modelling of size structure is not required. The DEB V1-morph model is explained in detail, and the same holds for the idea of synthesizing units, which plays a key role in DEB modelling. First results of system dynamics are presented

Biomasses of sole and plaice as function of effort, for different competition levels of resource competition.

<p>ω = 0.5 (A, C) and ω = 0.8 (B, D).</p

Biomass and discard over catch as function of effort.

<p>Biomasses of the species and stages as function of effort (A), and discard over catch (B). Without competition for a shared resource (ω = 0).</p

Biomass of plaice and sole as function of the resource carrying capacity scalar.

<p>With ω = 0 there is no resource competition and ω = 1 there is complete resource overlap. No fishing included.</p

Model variables, parameters and their values.

<p>Model variables, parameters and their values.</p