Explainable AI (XAI): Improving At-Risk Student Prediction with Theory-Guided Data Science, K-means Classification, and Genetic Programming

This research explores the use of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) in Educational Data Mining (EDM) to improve the performance and explainability of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models predicting at-risk students. Explainable predictions provide students and educators with more insight into at-risk indicators and causes, which facilitates instructional intervention guidance. Historically, low student retention has been prevalent across the globe as nations have implemented a wide range of interventions (e.g., policies, funding, and academic strategies) with only minimal improvements in recent years. In the US, recent attrition rates indicate two out of five first-time freshman students will not graduate from the same four-year institution within six years. In response, emerging AI research leveraging recent advancements in Deep Learning has demonstrated high predictive accuracy for identifying at-risk students, which is useful for planning instructional interventions. However, research suggested a general trade-off between performance and explainability of predictive models. Those that outperform, such as deep neural networks (DNN), are highly complex and considered black boxes (i.e., systems that are difficult to explain, interpret, and understand). The lack of model transparency/explainability results in shallow predictions with limited feedback prohibiting useful intervention guidance. Furthermore, concerns for trust and ethical use are raised for decision-making applications that involve humans, such as health, safety, and education. To address low student retention and the lack of interpretable models, this research explored the use of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) in Educational Data Mining (EDM) to improve instruction and learning. More specifically, XAI has the potential to enhance the performance and explainability of AI/ML models predicting at-risk students. The scope of this study includes a hybrid research design comprising: (1) a systematic literature review of XAI and EDM applications in education; (2) the development of a theory-guided feature selection (TGFS) conceptual learning model; and (3) an EDM study exploring the efficacy of a TGFS XAI model. The EDM study implemented K-Means Classification for explorative (unsupervised) and predictive (supervised) analysis in addition to assessing Genetic Programming (GP), a type of XAI model, predictive performance, and explainability against common AI/ML models. Online student activity and performance data were collected from a learning management system (LMS) from a four-year higher education institution. Student data was anonymized and protected to ensure data privacy and security. Data was aggregated at weekly intervals to compute and assess the predictive performance (sensitivity, recall, and f-1 score) over time. Mean differences and effect sizes are reported at the .05 significance level. Reliability and validity are improved by implementing research best practices

UTJECAJ UVJETA POSTUPKA DOBIVANJA MLJEVENE TROSKE TALJENJEM UGLJENA U VISOKOJ PEĆI UZ UPORABU GEOPOLIMERA

In this study, the material characterization of Vietnamese ground coal slag and ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS), such as particle size distribution, chemical composition, bulk density and particle density are shown. The geopolymer specimens were prepared by mixing an 80 m/m% mass of solid materials (ground coal slag and GGBFS in a different ratio) with 20 m/m % of a 10M NaOH alkaline activator. A systematic experimental series was carried out in order to optimize the preparation process. In that series, the heat curing temperature was 60°C for 6 hours, and then selected specimens were heat treated at a high temperature (1000 °C) for 1 hour. After 7 days of ageing, the physical properties of the geopolymer (compressive strength, specimen density) were measured. Also, after 180 days of ageing, the pH values of water in the geopolymer leaching preparation were determined. The results show that the geopolymer can be used for refractory applications due to its good heat resistance properties. However, geopolymers that were heated at 1000 °C had lower compressive strength, specimen density and pH values of water containing the geopolymer than those that were cured at 60 °C.U ovome istraživanju donose se obilježja vijetnamskih granulata ugljene troske i troske željezne rude na osnovi njihove veličine, kemijskoga sastava i gustoće. Uzorci geopolimera pripremljeni su miješanjem 80 % m/m (mase otopljenoga / masa otopine) ugljene i željezne troske (u različitim omjerima) s 20 % m/m 10M NaOH kao alkalnoga aktivatora. Sustavnim serijama eksperimenata optimiziran je postupak pripreme, pri čemu je temperatura iznosila 60 °C tijekom 6 sati, nakon čega su odabrani uzorci zagrijavani 1 sat na 1000 °C. Nakon sljedećih 7 dana izmjerena su fizička svojstva geopolimera (tlačna čvrstoća, gustoća). Zatim je poslije 180 dana određena pH-vrijednost vode korištene u postupku ispiranja geopolimera. Rezultati su pokazali kako geopolimeri mogu biti korišteni za namjene u vatrostalnim uvjetima zahvaljujući toplinskim svojstvima. Također, geopolimeri koji su zagrijavani na 1000 °C imaju niže vrijednosti tlačne čvrstoće, gustoće i pH-vrijednosti vode u njima od onih koji su grijani na 60 °C

A cryogenic liquid-mirror telescope on the moon to study the early universe

We have studied the feasibility and scientific potential of zenith observing liquid mirror telescopes having 20 to 100 m diameters located on the moon. They would carry out deep infrared surveys to study the distant universe and follow up discoveries made with the 6 m James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), with more detailed images and spectroscopic studies. They could detect objects 100 times fainter than JWST, observing the first, high-red shift stars in the early universe and their assembly into galaxies. We explored the scientific opportunities, key technologies and optimum location of such telescopes. We have demonstrated critical technologies. For example, the primary mirror would necessitate a high-reflectivity liquid that does not evaporate in the lunar vacuum and remains liquid at less than 100K: We have made a crucial demonstration by successfully coating an ionic liquid that has negligible vapor pressure. We also successfully experimented with a liquid mirror spinning on a superconducting bearing, as will be needed for the cryogenic, vacuum environment of the telescope. We have investigated issues related to lunar locations, concluding that locations within a few km of a pole are ideal for deep sky cover and long integration times. We have located ridges and crater rims within 0.5 degrees of the North Pole that are illuminated for at least some sun angles during lunar winter, providing power and temperature control. We also have identified potential problems, like lunar dust. Issues raised by our preliminary study demand additional in-depth analyses. These issues must be fully examined as part of a scientific debate we hope to start with the present article.Comment: 35 pages, 11 figures. To appear in Astrophysical Journal June 20 200

Downregulation of 26S proteasome catalytic activity promotes epithelial-mesenchymal transition.

The epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) endows carcinoma cells with phenotypic plasticity that can facilitate the formation of cancer stem cells (CSCs) and contribute to the metastatic cascade. While there is substantial support for the role of EMT in driving cancer cell dissemination, less is known about the intracellular molecular mechanisms that govern formation of CSCs via EMT. Here we show that β2 and β5 proteasome subunit activity is downregulated during EMT in immortalized human mammary epithelial cells. Moreover, selective proteasome inhibition enabled mammary epithelial cells to acquire certain morphologic and functional characteristics reminiscent of cancer stem cells, including CD44 expression, self-renewal, and tumor formation. Transcriptomic analyses suggested that proteasome-inhibited cells share gene expression signatures with cells that have undergone EMT, in part, through modulation of the TGF-β signaling pathway. These findings suggest that selective downregulation of proteasome activity in mammary epithelial cells can initiate the EMT program and acquisition of a cancer stem cell-like phenotype. As proteasome inhibitors become increasingly used in cancer treatment, our findings highlight a potential risk of these therapeutic strategies and suggest a possible mechanism by which carcinoma cells may escape from proteasome inhibitor-based therapy

Genetic variants of interferon regulatory factor 5 associated with chronic hepatitis B infection

Aim: To investigate possible effects of IRF5 polymorphisms in the 3’ UTR region of the IFR5 locus on susceptibility to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and progression of liver diseases among clinically classified Vietnamese patients.Methods: Four IFR5 SNPs (rs13242262A/T, rs77416878C/T, rs10488630A/G, and rs2280714T/C) were genotyped in clinically classified HBV patients [chronic hepatitis B (CHB). n = 99; liver cirrhosis (LC), n = 131; hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), n = 149] and in 242 healthy controls by direct sequencing and TaqMan real-time PCR assays. Results: Comparing patients and controls, no significant association was observed for the four IFR5 variants. However, the alleles rs13242262T and rs10488630G contributed to an increased risk of liver cirrhosis (LC vs CHB: OR = 1.5, 95%CI: 1.1-2.3, adjusted P = 0.04; LC vs CHB: OR = 1.7, 95%CI: 1.1-2.6, adjusted P = 0.019). Haplotype IRF5*TCGT constructed from 4 SNPs was observed frequently in LC compared to CHB patients (OR = 2.1, 95%CI: 1.2-3.3, adjusted P = 0.008). Haplotype IRF5*TCAT occurred rather among CHB patients than in the other HBV patient groups (LC vs CHB: OR = 0.4, 95%CI: 0.2-0.8, adjusted P = 0.03; HCC vs CHB: OR = 0.3, 95%CI: 0.15-0.7, adjusted P = 0.003). The IRF5*TCAT haplotype was also associated with increased levels of ALT, AST and bilirubin. Conclusion: Our study shows that IFR5 variants may contribute as a host factor in determining the pathogenesis in chronic HBV infections

Co-infection of human parvovirus B19 with Plasmodium falciparum contributes to malaria disease severity in Gabonese patients

Background: High seroprevalence of parvovirus B19 (B19V) coinfection with Plasmodium falciparum has been previously reported. However, the impact of B19V-infection on the clinical course of malaria is still elusive. In this study, we investigated the prevalence and clinical significance of B19V co-infection in Gabonese children with malaria. Methods: B19V prevalence was analyzed in serum samples of 197 Gabonese children with P. falciparum malaria and 85 healthy controls using polymerase chain reaction (PCR), enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and direct DNA-sequencing. Results: B19V was detected in 29/282 (10.28%) of Gabonese children. B19V was observed more frequently in P. falciparum malaria patients (14.21%) in comparison to healthy individuals (1.17%) (

Regional prediction of landslide hazard using probability analysis of intense rainfall in the Hoa Binh province, Vietnam.

The main objective of this study is to assess regional landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. A landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources with data mainly for a period of 21 years from 1990 to 2010. The historic inventory of these failures shows that rainfall is the main triggering factor in this region. The probability of the occurrence of episodes of rainfall and the rainfall threshold were deduced from records of rainfall for the aforementioned period. The rainfall threshold model was generated based on daily and cumulative values of antecedent rainfall of the landslide events. The result shows that 15-day antecedent rainfall gives the best fit for the existing landslides in the inventory. The rainfall threshold model was validated using the rainfall and landslide events that occurred in 2010 that were not considered in building the threshold model. The result was used for estimating temporal probability of a landslide to occur using a Poisson probability model. Prior to this work, five landslide susceptibility maps were constructed for the study area using support vector machines, logistic regression, evidential belief functions, Bayesian-regularized neural networks, and neuro-fuzzy models. These susceptibility maps provide information on the spatial prediction probability of landslide occurrence in the area. Finally, landslide hazard maps were generated by integrating the spatial and the temporal probability of landslide. A total of 15 specific landslide hazard maps were generated considering three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years

A new interpretation of total column BrO during Arctic spring

Emission of bromine from sea-salt aerosol, frost flowers, ice leads, and snow results in the nearly complete removal of surface ozone during Arctic spring. Regions of enhanced total column BrO observed by satellites have traditionally been associated with these emissions. However, airborne measurements of BrO and O3 within the convective boundary layer (CBL) during the ARCTAS and ARCPAC field campaigns at times bear little relation to enhanced column BrO. We show that the locations of numerous satellite BrO “hotspots” during Arctic spring are consistent with observations of total column ozone and tropopause height, suggesting a stratospheric origin to these regions of elevated BrO. Tropospheric enhancements of BrO large enough to affect the column abundance are also observed, with important contributions originating from above the CBL. Closure of the budget for total column BrO, albeit with significant uncertainty, is achieved by summing observed tropospheric partial columns with calculated stratospheric partial columns provided that natural, short-lived biogenic bromocarbons supply between 5 and 10 ppt of bromine to the Arctic lowermost stratosphere. Proper understanding of bromine and its effects on atmospheric composition requires accurate treatment of geographic variations in column BrO originating from both the stratosphere and troposphere

Stakeholder Expectations of Future Policy Implementation Compared to Formal Policy Trajectories: Scenarios for Agricultural Food Systems in the Mekong Delta

The development of a coherent and coordinated policy for the management of large socio-agricultural systems, such as the Mekong delta in southern Vietnam, is reliant on aligning the development, delivery, and implementation of policy on national to local scales. Effective decision making is linked to a coherent, broadly-shared vision of the strategic management of socio-agricultural systems. However, when policies are ambiguous, and at worst contradictory, long-term management and planning can consequently suffer. These potential adverse impacts may be compounded if stakeholders have divergent visions of the current and future states of socio-agricultural systems. Herein we used a transferable, scenario-based methodology which uses a standard quadrant matrix in order to explore both anticipated and idealized future states. Our case study was the Mekong delta. The scenario matrix was based upon two key strategic choices (axis) for the delta, derived from analysis of policy documents, literature, stakeholder engagement, and land use models. These are: (i) who will run agriculture in the future, agri-business or the established commune system; and (ii) to what degree sustainability will be incorporated into production. During a workshop meeting, stakeholders identified that agri-business will dominate future agricultural production in the delta but showed a clear concern that sustainability might consequently be undermined despite policy claims of the contrary. As such, our study highlights an important gap between national expectations and regional perspectives. Our results suggest that the new development plans for the Mekong delta (which comprise a new Master Plan and a new 5-year socio-economic development plan), which emphasize agro-business development, should adopt approaches that address concerns of sustainability as well as a more streamlined policy formulation and implementation that accounts for stakeholder concerns at both provincial and national levels