Health and budget impact of combined HIV prevention : first results of the BELHIVPREV model

Objectives: We developed a pragmatic modelling approach to estimate the impact of treatment as prevention (TasP); outreach testing strategies; and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) on the epidemiology of HIV and its associated pharmaceutical expenses. Methods: Our model estimates the incremental health (in terms of new HIV diagnoses) and budget impact of two prevention scenarios (outreach+TasP and outreach+TasP+PrEP) against a 'no additional prevention' scenario. Model parameters were estimated from reported Belgian epidemiology and literature data. The analysis was performed from a healthcare payer perspective with a 15-year-time horizon. It considers subpopulation differences, HIV infections diagnosed in Belgium having occurred prior to migration, and the effects of an ageing HIV population. Results: Without additional prevention measures, the annual number of new HIV diagnoses rises to over 1350 new diagnoses in 2030 as compared to baseline, resulting in a budget expenditure of (sic)260.5 million. Implementation of outreach+TasP and outreach+TasP+PrEP results in a decrease in the number of new HIV diagnoses to 865 and 663 per year, respectively. Respective budget impacts decrease by (sic)20.6 million and (sic)33.7 million. Conclusion: Foregoing additional investments in prevention is not an option. An approach combining TasP, outreach and PrEP is most effective in reducing the number of new HIV diagnoses and the HIV treatment budget. Our model is the first pragmatic HIV model in Belgium estimating the consequences of a combined preventive approach on the HIV epidemiology and its economic burden assuming other prevention efforts such as condom use and harm reduction strategies remain the same

Factors associated with the continuum of care of HIV infected patients in Belgium

BREACHinfo:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublishe

Time between symptom onset, hospitalisation and recovery or death : statistical analysis of Belgian COVID-19 patients

There are different patterns in the COVID-19 outbreak in the general population and amongst nursing home patients. We investigate the time from symptom onset to diagnosis and hospitalization or the length of stay (LoS) in the hospital, and whether there are differences in the population. Sciensano collected information on 14,618 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 admissions from 114 Belgian hospitals between 14 March and 12 June 2020. The distributions of different event times for different patient groups are estimated accounting for interval censoring and right truncation of the time intervals. The time between symptom onset and hospitalization or diagnosis are similar, with median length between symptom onset and hospitalization ranging between 3 and 10.4 days, depending on the age of the patient (longest delay in age group 20-60 years) and whether or not the patient lives in a nursing home (additional 2 days for patients from nursing home). The median LoS in hospital varies between 3 and 10.4 days, with the LoS increasing with age. The hospital LoS for patients that recover is shorter for patients living in a nursing home, but the time to death is longer for these patients. Over the course of the first wave, the LoS has decreased

Post-migration acquisition of HIV: Estimates from four European countries, 2007 to 2016.

BackgroundThe assumption that migrants acquire human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) before migration, particularly those from high prevalence areas, is common.AimWe assessed the place of HIV acquisition of migrants diagnosed in four European countries using surveillance data.MethodsUsing CD4+ T-cell count trajectories modelled to account for seroconversion bias, we estimated infection year of newly HIV-diagnosed migrants residing in the United Kingdom (UK), Belgium, Sweden and Italy with a known arrival year and CD4+ T-cell count at diagnosis. Multivariate analyses identified predictors for post-migration acquisition.ResultsBetween 2007 and 2016, migrants constituted 56% of people newly diagnosed with HIV in the UK, 62% in Belgium, 72% in Sweden and 29% in Italy. Of 23,595 migrants included, 60% were born in Africa and 70% acquired HIV heterosexually. An estimated 9,400 migrants (40%; interquartile range (IQR): 34-59) probably acquired HIV post-migration. This proportion was similar by risk group, sex and region of birth. Time since migration was a strong predictor of post-migration HIV acquisition: 91% (IQR: 87-95) among those arriving 10 or more years prior to diagnosis; 30% (IQR: 21-37) among those 1-5 years prior. Younger age at arrival was a predictor: 15-18 years (81%; IQR: 74-86), 19-25 years (53%; IQR: 45-63), 26-35 years (37%; IQR: 30-46) and 36 years and older (25%; IQR: 21-33).ConclusionsMigrants, regardless of origin, sex and exposure to HIV are at risk of acquiring HIV post-migration to Europe. Alongside accessible HIV testing, prevention activities must target migrant communities

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus Continuum of Care in European Union Countries in 2013: Data and Challenges.

BACKGROUND.: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has set a "90-90-90" target to curb the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic by 2020, but methods used to assess whether countries have reached this target are not standardized, hindering comparisons. METHODS.: Through a collaboration formed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) with European HIV cohorts and surveillance agencies, we constructed a standardized, 4-stage continuum of HIV care for 11 European Union countries for 2013. Stages were defined as (1) number of people living with HIV in the country by end of 2013; (2) proportion of stage 1 ever diagnosed; (3) proportion of stage 2 that ever initiated ART; and (4) proportion of stage 3 who became virally suppressed (≤200 copies/mL). Case surveillance data were used primarily to derive stages 1 (using back-calculation models) and 2, and cohort data for stages 3 and 4. RESULTS.: In 2013, 674500 people in the 11 countries were estimated to be living with HIV, ranging from 5500 to 153400 in each country. Overall HIV prevalence was 0.22% (range, 0.09%-0.36%). Overall proportions of each previous stage were 84% diagnosed, 84% on ART, and 85% virally suppressed (60% of people living with HIV). Two countries achieved ≥90% for all stages, and more than half had reached ≥90% for at least 1 stage. CONCLUSIONS.: European Union countries are nearing the 90-90-90 target. Reducing the proportion undiagnosed remains the greatest barrier to achieving this target, suggesting that further efforts are needed to improve HIV testing rates. Standardizing methods to derive comparable continuums of care remains a challenge

Trends in HIV surveillance data in the EU/EEA, 2005 to 2014: New HIV diagnoses still increasing in men who have sex with men

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission remains significant in Europe. Rates of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) have declined, but not in all countries. New HIV diagnoses have increased among native and foreign-born men who have sex with men. Median CD4+T-cell count at diagnosis has increased, but not in all groups, and late diagnosis remains common. HIV infection and AIDS can be eliminated in Europe with resolute prevention measures, early diagnosis and access to effective treatment

HIV testing within general practices in Europe : A mixed-methods systematic review

Funding Information: This work was supported by IWT (Belgium) and the ANRS (France) through the framework of HIVERA JTC 2014. Publisher Copyright: © 2018 The Author(s).Background: Late diagnosis of HIV infection remains a key challenge in Europe. It is acknowledged that general practitioners (GPs) may contribute greatly to early case finding, yet there is evidence that many diagnostic opportunities are being missed. To further promote HIV testing in primary care and to increase the utility of available research, the existing evidence has been synthesised in a systematic review adhering to the PRISMA guidelines. Methods: The databases PubMed, Scopus and Embase were searched for the period 2006-2017. Two authors judged independently on the eligibility of studies. Through a mixed-methods systematic review of 29 studies, we provide a description of HIV testing in general practices in Europe, including barriers and facilitators. Results: The findings of the study show that although various approaches to target patients are used by GPs, most tests are still carried out based on the patient's request. Several barriers obstruct HIV testing in general practice. Included are a lack of communication skills on sexual health, lack of knowledge about HIV testing recommendations and epidemic specificities, difficulties with using the complete list of clinical HIV indicator diseases and lack of experience in delivering and communicating test results. The findings also suggest that the provision of specific training, practical tools and promotion programmes has an impact on the testing performance of GPs. Conclusions: GPs could have an increased role in provider-initiated HIV-testing for early case finding. To achieve this objective, solutions to the reported barriers should be identified and testing criteria adapted to primary healthcare defined. Providing guidance and training to better identify priority groups for HIV testing, as well as information on the HIV epidemic's characteristics, will be fundamental to increasing awareness and testing by GPs.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Prevalence of chronic HCV infection in EU/EEA countries in 2019 using multiparameter evidence synthesis

Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Author(s)Background: Epidemiological data are crucial to monitoring progress towards the 2030 Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination targets. Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of chronic HCV infection (cHCV) in the European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) countries in 2019. Methods: Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) was used to produce national estimates of cHCV defined as: π = πrecρrec + πexρex + πnonρnon; πrec, πex, and πnon represent cHCV prevalence among recent people who inject drugs (PWID), ex-PWID, and non-PWID, respectively, while ρrec, ρex, and ρnon represent the proportions of these groups in the population. Information sources included the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) national operational contact points (NCPs) and prevalence database, the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction databases, and the published literature. Findings: The cHCV prevalence in 29 of 30 EU/EEA countries in 2019 was 0.50% [95% Credible Interval (CrI): 0.46%, 0.55%]. The highest cHCV prevalence was observed in the eastern EU/EEA (0.88%; 95% CrI: 0.81%, 0.94%). At least 35.76% (95% CrI: 33.07%, 38.60%) of the overall cHCV prevalence in EU/EEA countries was associated with injecting drugs. Interpretation: Using MPES and collaborating with ECDC NCPs, we estimated the prevalence of cHCV in the EU/EEA to be low. Some areas experience higher cHCV prevalence while a third of prevalent cHCV infections was attributed to PWID. Further efforts are needed to scale up prevention measures and the diagnosis and treatment of infected individuals, especially in the east of the EU/EEA and among PWID. Funding: ECDC.Peer reviewe

Estimates of the HIV undiagnosed population in Belgium reveals higher prevalence for MSM with foreign nationality and for geographic areas hosting big cities

International audienceINTRODUCTION: Increasing our knowledge on geographic areas and key populations most affected by HIV is essential to improve prevention and care and to ensure a more focused HIV response. Here, we estimated the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infections in Belgium and its distribution across geographic areas and exposure groups.METHODS: We used surveillance data on newly diagnosed HIV cases and a previously developed back-calculation model to estimate number and prevalence rates (per 10000) of undiagnosed HIV infections by exposure group at national and subnational levels. Belgium consists of three regions: Flanders, Brussels-Capital Region and Wallonia. We produced estimates for Brussels-Capital Region and Wallonia. For Flanders, we produced estimates for two sub-regional areas: the province of Antwerp and the other provinces, because Antwerp is the second largest city after Brussels. Population sizes were determined using data from the Belgian Statistical Office and surveys on sexual behaviour and drug use.RESULTS: In Belgium, in 2015, an estimated 2818 (95% confidence interval: 2494 to 3208) individuals were living with undiagnosed HIV, that is, 15% of individuals living with HIV. The Brussels-Capital Region and the province of Antwerp, which host the two biggest cities, accounted for ~60% of the undiagnosed infections, and had the highest undiagnosed prevalence rates per 10000: 12.0 (9.4 to 15.3) and 7.4 (5.6 to 9.8) respectively. Individuals with foreign nationality accounted for 56% of the total number of undiagnosed infections, and were the most affected populations in all areas in terms of undiagnosed prevalence rates. Specifically, men who have sex with men (MSM) with non-European nationality were the most affected population in the province of Antwerp (853.4 (408.2 to 1641.9) undiagnosed infections per 10000), the Brussels-Capital Region (543.9 (289.1 to 1019.1)), and the other provinces of Flanders (691.7 (235.5 to 1442.2)), while in Wallonia, it was heterosexual women with Sub-Saharan African nationality (132.2 (90.6 to 178.5)).CONCLUSIONS: Geographic areas hosting the biggest cities in Belgium accounted for the vast majority of undiagnosed HIV infections and individuals with foreign nationality were the most affected, especially MSM with non-European nationality. This should be accounted for when tailoring prevention and testing programs. Furthermore, MSM with foreign nationality require more attention in Belgium, and certainly more generally in Europe