GLOBAL ESTIMATES OF THE IMPACT OF A COLLAPSE OF THE WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET: AN APPLICATION OF FUND

The threat of an abrupt and extreme rise in sea level is widely discussed in the media, but little understood in practise, including the likely impacts of such a rise. This paper explores for the first time the global impacts of extreme sea-level rise, triggered by a hypothetical collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). As the potential contributions remain uncertain, a wide range of scenarios are explored: WAIS contributions to sea-level rise of between 0.5m/century up to 5m/century. Together with other business-as-usual sea-level contributions, in the worst case this gives an approximately 6-m rise of global-mean sea level from 2030 to 2130. Global exposure to extreme sea-level rise is significant: roughly 400 million people (or about 8% of global population) are threatened by a 5-m rise in sea level, just based on 1995 data. The coastal module within the FUND model is tuned with global data on coastal zone characteristics concerning population, land areas and land use, and then used for impact analysis under the extreme sea-level rise scenarios. The model considers the interaction of (dry)land loss, wetland loss, protection costs and human displacement, assuming perfect adaptation based on cost-benefit analysis. Unlike earlier analyses, response costs are represented in a non-linear manner, including a sensitivity analysis based on response costs. It is found that much of the world’s coast would be abandoned given these extreme scenarios, although according to the global model, significant lengths of the world’s coast are worth defending even in the most extreme case. Hence, this suggests that actual population displacement would be a small fraction of the potential population displacement. This result is consistent with the present distribution of coastal population, which is heavily concentrated in specific areas. Hence a partial defence can protect most of the world’s coastal population. However, protection costs rise substantially diverting large amounts of investment from other sectors, and large areas of (dry)land and coastal wetlands are still predicted to be lost. While some observations of response to abrupt relative sea-level rise due to subsidence support the global model results, detailed case studies of the WAIS collapse in the Netherlands, Thames Estuary and the Rhone delta suggest a greater potential for abandonment than shown by the global model. This probably reflects a range of issues, including: (1) economic criteria such as the cost-benefit ratio is not the only factor which drives response decisions, with wider perceptions of risk driving the actual response; (2) the inefficiencies of adaptation in the real world, including indecision and competition for limited resources; and (3) the possible loss of confidence under the scenario of abrupt climate change. Collectively, these results illustrate an area where there are potential limits to adaptation, even when economic analysis suggests that adaptation will occur. The significant impacts found in the global model together with the potential for greater impacts as found in the detailed case studies shows that the response to abrupt sea-level rise is worthy of further research, including exploring the differing impact results by scale.Abrupt climate change, sea-level rise, coastal impacts, adaptation, adaptation limits

Worst Case Scenario and Stakeholder Group Decision: A 5-6 Meter Sea Level Rise in the Rhone Delta, France

Risk policy and public attitudes appear disconnected from research predicting warmer climate partially due to human activity. To step out of this stalled situation, a worst case scenario of a 5-6m sea level rise (SLR) induced by the collapse of the WAIS and occurring during the period 2030-2130 is constructed and applied to the Rhone delta. Physical and socio-economic scenarios developed with data from the Rhone delta context are developed and submitted to stakeholders for a day-long workshop. Group process analysis shows a high level of trust and cooperation mobilized to face the 5-6m SLR issue, despite potentially diverging interests. Two sets of recommendations stem from the scenario workshop. A conservative "wait and see" option is decided when the risk of the WAIS collapse is announced in 2030. After WAIS collapse generates an effective 1m SLR rise by 2050, decisions are taken for total retreat and rendering of the Rhone delta to its hydrological function. The transposition of these results into present times policy decisions could be considered. The methodology developed here could be applied to other risk objects and situations, and serve for policy exercises and crisis prevention.Sea level rise, France, Camargue, scenario, extreme climate, stakeholder workshop

A Mediterranean coastal database for assessing the impacts of sea-level rise and associated hazards

We have developed a new coastal database for the Mediterranean basin that is intended for coastal impact and adaptation assessment to sea-level rise and associated hazards on a regional scale. The data structure of the database relies on a linear representation of the coast with associated spatial assessment units. Using information on coastal morphology, human settlements and administrative boundaries, we have divided the Mediterranean coast into 13 900 coastal assessment units. To these units we have spatially attributed 160 parameters on the characteristics of the natural and socio-economic subsystems, such as extreme sea levels, vertical land movement and number of people exposed to sea-level rise and extreme sea levels. The database contains information on current conditions and on plausible future changes that are essential drivers for future impacts, such as sea-level rise rates and socio-economic development. Besides its intended use in risk and impact assessment, we anticipate that the Mediterranean Coastal Database (MCD) constitutes a useful source of information for a wide range of coastal applications.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Accounting for internal migration in spatial population projections—a gravity-based modeling approach using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Gridded population projections constitute an essential input for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) assessments as they allow for exploring how future changes in the spatial distribution of population drive climate change impacts. We develop such spatial population projections, using a gravity-based modeling approach that accounts for rural-urban and inland-coastal migration as well as for spatial development patterns (i.e. urban sprawl). We calibrate the model (called CONCLUDE) to the socioeconomically diverse Mediterranean region, additionally considering differences in socioeconomic development in two geographical regions: the northern Mediterranean and the southern and eastern Mediterranean. We produce high-resolution population projections (approximately 1 km) for 2020–2100 that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), both in terms of qualitative narrative assumptions as well as national-level projections. We find that future spatial population patterns differ considerably under all SSPs, with four to eight times higher urban population densities and three to 16 times higher coastal populations in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries compared to northern Mediterranean countries in 2100. In the South and East, the highest urban density (8000 people km−2) and coastal population (107 million) are projected under SSP3, while in the North, the highest urban density (1500 people km−2) is projected under SSP1 and the highest coastal population (15.2 million) under SSP5. As these projections account for internal migration processes and spatial development patterns, they can provide new insights in a wide range of IAV assessments. Furthermore, CONCLUDE can be extended to other continental or global scales due to its modest data requirements based on freely available global datasets

Regionalisation of population growth projections in coastal exposure analysis

Large-area coastal exposure and impact analysis has focussed on using sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and has placed little emphasis on ocioeconomic scenarios, while neglecting spatial variations of population dynamics. We use the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) Framework to assess the population exposed to 1 in 100-year coastal flood events under different population scenarios, that are onsistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); and different SLR scenarios, derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs); and analyse the effect of accounting for regionalised population dynamics on population exposure until 2100. In a reference approach, we use homogeneous population growth on national level. In the regionalisation approaches, we test existing spatially explicit projections that also account for urbanisation, coastal migration and urban sprawl. Our results show that projected global exposure in 2100 ranges from 100 million to 260 million, depending on the combination of SLR and population scenarios and method used for regionalising the population projections. The assessed exposure based on the regionalised approaches is higher than that derived from the reference approach by up to 60 million people (39%). Accounting for urbanisation and coastal migration leads to an increase in exposure, whereas considering urban sprawl leads to lower exposure. Differences between the reference and the regionalised approaches increase with higher SLR. The regionalised approaches show highest exposure under SSP5 over most of the twenty-first century, although total population in SP5 is the second lowest overall. All methods project the largest absolute growth in exposure for Asia and relative growth for Africa

Future urban development exacerbates coastal exposure in the Mediterranean

Changes in the spatial patterns and rate of urban development will be one of the main determinants of future coastal flood risk. Existing spatial projections of urban extent are, however, often available at coarse spatial resolutions, local geographical scales or for short time horizons, which limits their suitability for broad-scale coastal flood impact assessments. Here, we present a new set of spatially explicit projections of urban extent for ten countries in the Mediterranean, consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). To model plausible future urban development, we develop an Urban Change Model, which uses input variables such as elevation, population density or road network and an artificial neural network to project urban development on a regional scale. The developed future projections for the five SSPs indicate that accounting for the spatial patterns of urban development can lead to significant differences in the assessment of future coastal urban exposure. The increase in exposure in the Extended Low Elevation Coastal Zone (E-LECZ = area below 20 m of elevation) until 2100 can vary, by up to 104%, depending on the urban development scenario chosen. This finding highlights that accounting for urban development in long-term adaptation planning, e.g. in the form of land-use planning, can be an effective measure for reducing future coastal flood risk on a regional scale

New expert- based coastal classification: a GIS tool to compare and analyze coastal regions

A coastline is the area where interaction of the sea and land processes occurs. Coastal areas are very high- dynamic regions, continuously affected and permanently formed by littoral geomorphologic processes (Bird 2008). The configuration of a coast is associated with variou s factors, such as the geological setting, s ub strate -lithology, ecosystem characteristics, regional climate, wave and tidal regimes, human development and near shore infrastructure. To conduct a coastal classification in broad se n se i s a fairly com plex task, depending on the objective of the work. Many di.fferent concepts h ave been applied to coasts in attempts to characterize dominant features in terms of physical or biological propertie s, modes of evolution, geographic occurrence, among others (Finkl 2004). Also, the need for a better coastal management dueto the wodd-wide human pressures on the coastal zone and the resulting vulnerability when erosion processes and human activity come into conflict, motivated the development of coastal classification criteria that fit di.fferent purposes (Finkl 2004, I h1 et al 2006, Appelq ui st 2013, Appelq uist y B alstr0m 2014 ). Sorne of the ear lier classification approaches were broad in scope but lacked important details while other specialized systems were topicallytoo focused. As a result of more com prehensive studies of coasts and the increasing availability of digital information, such as Geographic Information System (GIS) frameworks, integrated and systematics approaches to coastal cla ssifi cation are now the preferred options (Finkl 2004 y Scheffers et al 2012). Present-day managem e nt demands require problem solutions, which ovedook and integrate the marine, littoral and terrestrial sphere of the coastal zone

Exploring human-nature interaction on the coastal floodplain in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta through the lens of Ostrom’s social-ecological systems framework

This study diagnoses temporal and spatial variations in the performance of different social-ecological systems (SES) in coastal floodplain management in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. We go beyond common pool resource management problems and address the management of local public goods. In the assessment, we consider recent developments in the framework initially developed by Elinor Ostrom. The main variables of the framework that we use are resource systems, the environment, the governance system and actors. The focal SES is defined based on guiding questions relating to the definition of the key problem, system boundaries, and action situations. According to our results, the performance of resource systems and the environment deteriorated in 1960–79 compared to the performance prior to 1960. The condition reached a low point during 1980–1999 but improved slightly after 1999. The horizontal network structure of local governance was active until 1960. Due to the introduction of the 'tidal river management' approach in the 90 s, the performance of the resource system and the environment has slightly improved, as has the involvement of government and non-government organizations. Our results also show that overall SES performance is comparatively bette

Plausible responses to the threat of rapid sea-level rise for the Thames Estuary

This paper considers the perceptions and responses of selected stakeholders to a scenarion of rapid rise in sea-level due to the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which could produce a global rise in sea-level of 5 to 6 metres. Through a process of dialogue involving one-to one interviews and a one-day policy exercise, we addressed influences on decision-making when information is uncertain and our ability to plan, prepare for and implement effective ways of coping with this extreme scenario. Through these interactions we hoped to uncover plausible responses to the scenario and identify potential weaknesses in our current flood management approaches to dealing with such an occurrence. By undertaking this exploratory exercise we hoped to find out whether this was a feasible way to deal with such a low probability but high consequence scenario. It was the process of finding a solution that interested us rather than the technical merits of one solution over another. We were not intending to produce definitive set of recommendations on how to respond but to gain insights into the process of making a decision, specifically what influences it and what assumptions are made.Sea level rise, London

Exploring human-nature interaction on the coastal floodplain in the ganges-brahmaputra delta through the lens of ostrom’s social-ecological systems framework

This study diagnoses temporal and spatial variations in the performance of different social-ecological systems (SES) in coastal floodplain management in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. We go beyond common pool resource management problems and address the management of local public goods. In the assessment, we consider recent developments in the framework initially developed by Elinor Ostrom. The main variables of the framework that we use are resource systems, the environment, the governance system and actors. The focal SES is defined based on guiding questions relating to the definition of the key problem, system boundaries, and action situations. According to our results, the performance of resource systems and the environment deteriorated in 1960–79 compared to the performance prior to 1960. The condition reached a low point during 1980–1999 but improved slightly after 1999. The horizontal network structure of local governance was active until 1960. Due to the introduction of the ‘tidal river management’ approach in the 90 s, the performance of the resource system and the environment has slightly improved, as has the involvement of government and non-government organizations. Our results also show that overall SES performance is comparatively bette