The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world

Estimating the survival benefits gained from providing national cancer genetic services to women with a family history of breast cancer

The aim of this paper is to compare a service offering genetic testing and presymptomatic surveillance to women at increased risk of developing breast cancer with its predecessor of no service at all in terms of survival and quality-adjusted survival (QALYs) by means of a Markov cohort chain simulation model. Genetic assessment and presymptomatic care provided between 0.07-1.61 mean additional life years and 0.05-1.67 mean QALYs over no services. Prophylactic surgery and surveillance extended mean life expectancy by 0.41-1.61 and 0.32-0.99 years, respectively over no services for high-risk women. Model outcomes were sensitive to all the parameters varied in the sensitivity analysis. Providing cancer genetic services increase survival and as long as services do not induce adverse psychological effects they also provide more QALYs. The greatest survival and QALY benefits were found for women with identified mutations. As more cancer genes are identified, the survival and cost-effectiveness of genetic services will improve. Although mastectomy provided most additional life years, when quality of life was accounted for oophorectomy was the optimal strategy. Delayed entry into coordinated genetic services was found to diminish the average survival and QALY gains for a woman utilising these services

The Lore of Low Methane Livestock:Co-Producing Technology and Animals for Reduced Climate Change Impact

Methane emissions from sheep and cattle production have gained increasing profile in the context of climate change. Policy and scientific research communities have suggested a number of technological approaches to mitigate these emissions. This paper uses the concept of co-production as an analytical framework to understand farmers’ evaluation of a 'good animal’. It examines how technology and sheep and beef cattle are co-produced in the context of concerns about the climate change impact of methane. Drawing on 42 semi-structured interviews, this paper demonstrates that methane emissions are viewed as a natural and integral part of sheep and beef cattle by farmers, rather than as a pollutant. Sheep and beef cattle farmers in the UK are found to be an extremely heterogeneous group that need to be understood in their specific social, environmental and consumer contexts. Some are more amenable to appropriating methane reducing measures than others, but largely because animals are already co-constructed from the natural and the technical for reasons of increased production efficiency

Development of quality indicators for monitoring outcomes of frail elderly hospitalised in acute care health settings: Study Protocol

Background: Frail older people admitted to acute care hospitals are at risk of a range of adverse outcomes, including geriatric syndromes, although targeted care strategies can improve health outcomes for these patients. It is therefore important to assess inter-hospital variation in performance in order to plan and resource improvement programs. Clinical quality outcome indicators provide a mechanism for identifying variation in performance over time and between hospitals, however to date there has been no routine use of such indicators in acute care settings. A barrier to using quality indicators is lack of access to routinely collected clinical data. The interRAI Acute Care (AC) assessment system supports comprehensive geriatric assessment of older people within routine daily practice in hospital and includes process and outcome data pertaining to geriatric syndromes. This paper reports the study protocol for the development of aged care quality indicators for acute care hospitals. Methods/Design. The study will be conducted in three phases:. 1. Development of a preliminary inclusive set of quality indicators set based on a literature review and expert panel consultation,. 2. A prospective field study including recruitment of 480 patients aged 70 years or older across 9 Australian hospitals. Each patient will be assessed on admission and discharge using the interRAI AC, and will undergo daily monitoring to observe outcomes. Medical records will be independently audited, and. 3. Analysis and compilation of a definitive quality indicator set, including two anonymous voting rounds for quality indicator inclusion by the expert panel. Discussion. The approach to quality indicators proposed in this protocol has four distinct advantages over previous efforts: the quality indicators focus on outcomes; they can be collected as part of a routinely applied clinical information and decision support system; the clinical data will be robust and will contribute to better understanding variations in hospital care of older patients; The quality indicators will have international relevance as they will be built on the interRAI assessment instrument, an internationally recognised clinical system

Cyclophosphamide- metabolizing enzyme polymorphisms and survival outcomes after adjuvant chemotherapy for node-positive breast cancer: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract Introduction Cyclophosphamide-based adjuvant chemotherapy is a mainstay of treatment for women with node-positive breast cancer, but is not universally effective in preventing recurrence. Pharmacogenetic variability in drug metabolism is one possible mechanism of treatment failure. We hypothesize that functional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in drug metabolizing enzymes (DMEs) that activate (CYPs) or metabolize (GSTs) cyclophosphamide account for some of the observed variability in disease outcomes. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study of 350 women enrolled in a multicenter, randomized, adjuvant breast cancer chemotherapy trial (ECOG-2190/INT-0121). Subjects in this trial received standard-dose cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin and fluorouracil (CAF), followed by either observation or high-dose cyclophosphamide and thiotepa with stem cell rescue. We used bone marrow stem cell-derived genomic DNA from archival specimens to genotype CYP2B6, CYP2C9, CYP2D6, CYP3A4, CYP3A5, GSTM1, GSTT1, and GSTP1. Cox regression models were computed to determine associations between genotypes (individually or in combination) and disease-free survival (DFS) or overall survival (OS), adjusting for confounding clinical variables. Results In the full multivariable analysis, women with at least one CYP3A4 *1B variant allele had significantly worse DFS than those who were wild-type *1A/*1A (multivariate hazard ratio 2.79; 95% CI 1.52, 5.14). CYP2D6 genotype did not impact this association among patients with estrogen receptor (ER) -positive tumors scheduled to receive tamoxifen. Conclusions These data support the hypothesis that genetic variability in cyclophosphamide metabolism independently impacts outcome from adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer

International Network for Comparison of HIV Neutralization Assays: The NeutNet Report II

BACKGROUND: Neutralizing antibodies provide markers for vaccine-induced protective immunity in many viral infections. By analogy, HIV-1 neutralizing antibodies induced by immunization may well predict vaccine effectiveness. Assessment of neutralizing antibodies is therefore of primary importance, but is hampered by the fact that we do not know which assay(s) can provide measures of protective immunity. An international collaboration (NeutNet) involving 18 different laboratories previously compared different assays using monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and soluble CD4 (Phase I study). METHODS: In the present study (Phase II), polyclonal reagents were evaluated by 13 laboratories. Each laboratory evaluated nine plasmas against an 8 virus panel representing different genetic subtypes and phenotypes. TriMab, a mixture of three mAbs, was used as a positive control allowing comparison of the results with Phase I in a total of nine different assays. The assays used either uncloned virus produced in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) (Virus Infectivity Assays, VIA), or Env (gp160)-pseudotyped viruses (pseudoviruses, PSV) produced in HEK293T cells from molecular clones or from uncloned virus. Target cells included PBMC and genetically engineered cell lines in either single- or multiple-cycle infection format. Infection was quantified by using a range of assay read-outs including extra- or intra-cellular p24 antigen detection, luciferase, beta-galactosidase or green fluorescent protein (GFP) reporter gene expression. FINDINGS: Using TriMab, results of Phase I and Phase II were generally in agreement for six of the eight viruses tested and confirmed that the PSV assay is more sensitive than PBMC (p = 0.014). Comparisons with the polyclonal reagents showed that sensitivities were dependent on both virus and plasma. CONCLUSIONS: Here we further demonstrate clear differences in assay sensitivities that were dependent on both the neutralizing reagent and the virus. Consistent with the Phase I study, we recommend parallel use of PSV and VIA for vaccine evaluation

Moving carbon between spheres, the potential oxalate-carbonate pathway of Brosimum alicastrum Sw.; Moraceae.

Aims The Oxalate-Carbonate Pathway (OCP) is a biogeochemical process that transfers atmospheric CO2 into the geologic reservoir as CaCO3; however, until now all investigations on this process have focused on species with limited food benefits. This study evaluates a potential OCP associated with Brosimum alicastrum, a Neotropical species with agroforestry potential (ca. 70–200 kg-nuts yr−1), in the calcareous soils of Haiti and Mexico. Methods / results Enzymatic analysis demonstrated significant concentrations of calcium oxalate (5.97 % D.W.) were associated with B. alicastrum tissue in all sample sites. The presence of oxalotrophism was also confirmed with microbiological analyses in both countries. High concentrations of total calcium (>7 g kg−1) and lithogenic carbonate obscured the localised alkalinisation and identification of secondary carbonate associated with the OCP at most sample sites, except Ma Rouge, Haiti. Soils adjacent to subjects in Ma Rouge demonstrated an increase in pH (0.63) and CaCO3 concentration (5.9 %) that, when coupled with root-like secondary carbonate deposits in Mexico, implies that the OCP does also occur in calcareous soils. Conclusions Therefore this study confirms that the OCP also occurs in calcareous soils, adjacent to B. alicastrum, and could play a fundamental and un-accounted role in the global calcium-carbon coupled cycle