Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica

The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial-interglacial cycles. The succession of changes through each climate cycle and termination was similar, and atmospheric;and climate properties oscillated between stable bounds. Interglacial periods differed in temporal evolution and duration. Atmospheric: concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane correlate well with Antarctic air-temperature throughout the record. Present-day atmospheric burdens of these two important greenhouse gases seem to have been unprecedented during the past 420,000 years

Low sea level rise projections from mountain glaciers and icecaps under global warming

The mean sea level has been projected to rise in the 21st century as a result of global warming. Such projections of sea level change depend on estimated future greenhouse emissions and on differing models, but model-average results from a mid-range scenario (A1B) suggests a 0.387-m rise by 2100. The largest contributions to sea level rise are estimated to come from thermal expansion (0.288 m) and the melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps (0.106 m), with smaller inputs from Greenland (0.024 m) and Antarctica (- 0.074 m). Here we apply a melt model and a geometric volume model to our lower estimate of ice volume and assess the contribution of glaciers to sea level rise, excluding those in Greenland and Antarctica. We provide the first separate assessment of melt contributions from mountain glaciers and icecaps, as well as an improved treatment of volume shrinkage. We find that icecaps melt more slowly than mountain glaciers, whose area declines rapidly in the 21st century, making glaciers a limiting source for ice melt. Using two climate models, we project sea level rise due to melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps to be 0.046 and 0.051 m by 2100, about half that of previous projections

Transport of Snow by the Wind: A Comparison Between Observations in Adélie Land, Antarctica, and Simulations Made with the Regional Climate Model MAR

For the first time a simulation of blowing snow events was validated in detail using one-month long observations (January 2010) made in Adélie Land, Antarctica. A regional climate model featuring a coupled atmosphere/blowing snow/snowpack model is forced laterally by meteorological re-analyses. The vertical grid spacing was 2 m from 2 to 20 m above the surface and the horizontal grid spacing was 5 km. The simulation was validated by comparing the occurrence of blowing snow events and other meteorological parameters at two automatic weather stations. The Nash test allowed us to compute effi- ciencies of the simulation. The regional climate model simulated the observed wind speed with a positive efficiency (0.69). Wind speeds higher than 12 m s−1 were underestimated. Positive efficiency of the simulated wind speed was a prerequisite for validating the blowing snow model. Temperatures were simulated with a slightly negative efficiency (−0.16) due to overestimation of the amplitude of the diurnal cycle during one week, probably because the cloud cover was underestimated at that location during the period concerned. Snowfall events were correctly simulated by our model, as confirmed by field reports. Because observations suggested that our instrument (an acoustic sounder) tends to overestimate the blowing snow flux, data were not sufficiently accurate to allow the complete validation of snow drift val- ues. However, the simulation of blowing snow occurrence was in good agreement with the observations made during the first 20 days of January 2010, despite the fact that the blowing snow flux may be underestimated by the regional climate model during pure blowing snow events. We found that blowing snow occurs in Adélie Land only when the 30-min wind speed value at 2 m a.g.l. is >10 m s−1. The validation for the last 10 days of January 2010 was less satisfactory because of complications introduced by surface melting and refreezing

Crucial role of Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme

Over the past 60 years, both average daily precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation have increased in many regions1, 2, 3. Part of these changes, or even individual events4, 5, have been attributed to anthropogenic warming6, 7. Over the Black Sea and Mediterranean region, the potential for extreme summertime convective precipitation has grown8 alongside substantial sea surface temperature increase. A particularly devastating convective event experienced in that region was the July 2012 precipitation extreme near the Black Sea town of Krymsk9. Here we study the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) increase on convective extremes within the region, taking the Krymsk event as a showcase example. We carry out ensemble sensitivity simulations with a convection-permitting atmospheric model and show the crucial role of SST increase in the extremeness of the event. The enhancement of lower tropospheric instability due to the current warmer Black Sea allows deep convection to be triggered, increasing simulated precipitation by more than 300% relative to simulations with SSTs characteristic of the early 1980s. A highly nonlinear precipitation response to incremental SST increase suggests that the Black Sea has exceeded a regional threshold for the intensification of convective extremes. The physical mechanism we identify indicates that Black Sea and Mediterranean coastal regions may face abrupt amplifications of convective precipitation under continued SST increase, and illustrates the limitations of thermodynamical bounds for estimating the temperature scaling of convective extremes