Linking global CGE models with sectoral models to generate baseline scenarios: Approaches, opportunities and pitfalls

When modelling medium and long-term challenges we need a reference path of economic development (the so-called baseline). Because sectoral models often offer a more fundamental understanding of future developments for specific sectors, many CGE modeling teams have adopted different kinds of linking approaches to sectoral models to generate baselines. We systematically compare and discuss approaches of linking CGE models for the baseline calibration procedure, and discuss best practices and pitfalls. We identify different types of linking approaches which we divide into a) links with partial equilibrium models, and b) links with non-economic models. These two types of linking approaches are then analyzed with respect to e.g. the degree of linkage, information exchanged, as well as compromises in aggregations and definitions. Based on this, we discuss potential drawbacks and conclude with suggestions for best practices and research recommendations

Infrastructure for Detector Research and Development towards the International Linear Collider

The EUDET-project was launched to create an infrastructure for developing and testing new and advanced detector technologies to be used at a future linear collider. The aim was to make possible experimentation and analysis of data for institutes, which otherwise could not be realized due to lack of resources. The infrastructure comprised an analysis and software network, and instrumentation infrastructures for tracking detectors as well as for calorimetry.Comment: 54 pages, 48 picture

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change

Change-of-state Paradigms and the middle in Kinyarwanda

This paper investigates the derivational relationships among members of verbal paradigms in Kinyarwanda (Bantu JD.61; Rwanda) by pursuing two interrelated goals. First, I describe a variety of derivational strategies for marking transitive and intransitive variants in change-of-state verb paradigms. Second, I focus on the detransitivizing morpheme –ik which serves as one possible marking for intransitive members of these paradigms. Ultimately, I argue that this morpheme is a marker of middle voice, and the variety of readings which appear with this form can be subsumed under a single operation of argument suppression. Finally, I provide a discussion of reflexives and the apparent lack of a reflexive reading with –ik by arguing that this reading is blocked by either lexical reflexives or the reflexive prefix i–

Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level

Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals

Acknowledgments MH, DM-D, JP, JRB, AH, GDB, CMG, CLM, and KR acknowledge funding from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. PKT, BMC, AJ, and AML acknowledge funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, which is supported by the CGIAR Trust Fund and through bilateral funding agreements. PP acknowledges funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research for the BIOCLIMAPATHS project.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

PTCH1+/− Dermal Fibroblasts Isolated from Healthy Skin of Gorlin Syndrome Patients Exhibit Features of Carcinoma Associated Fibroblasts

Gorlin's or nevoid basal cell carcinoma syndrome (NBCCS) causes predisposition to basal cell carcinoma (BCC), the commonest cancer in adult human. Mutations in the tumor suppressor gene PTCH1 are responsible for this autosomal dominant syndrome. In NBCCS patients, as in the general population, ultraviolet exposure is a major risk factor for BCC development. However these patients also develop BCCs in sun-protected areas of the skin, suggesting the existence of other mechanisms for BCC predisposition in NBCCS patients. As increasing evidence supports the idea that the stroma influences carcinoma development, we hypothesized that NBCCS fibroblasts could facilitate BCC occurence of the patients. WT (n = 3) and NBCCS fibroblasts bearing either nonsense (n = 3) or missense (n = 3) PTCH1 mutations were cultured in dermal equivalents made of a collagen matrix and their transcriptomes were compared by whole genome microarray analyses. Strikingly, NBCCS fibroblasts over-expressed mRNAs encoding pro-tumoral factors such as Matrix Metalloproteinases 1 and 3 and tenascin C. They also over-expressed mRNA of pro-proliferative diffusible factors such as fibroblast growth factor 7 and the stromal cell-derived factor 1 alpha, known for its expression in carcinoma associated fibroblasts. These data indicate that the PTCH1+/− genotype of healthy NBCCS fibroblasts results in phenotypic traits highly reminiscent of those of BCC associated fibroblasts, a clue to the yet mysterious proneness to non photo-exposed BCCs in NBCCS patients

Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy