Commentary on the use of the reproduction number R during the COVID-19 pandemic

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the reproduction number R has become a popular epidemiological metric used to communicate the state of the epidemic. At its most basic, R is defined as the average number of secondary infections caused by one primary infected individual. R seems convenient, because the epidemic is expanding if R>1 and contracting if R<1. The magnitude of R indicates by how much transmission needs to be reduced to control the epidemic. Using R in a naïve way can cause new problems. The reasons for this are threefold: (1) There is not just one definition of R but many, and the precise definition of R affects both its estimated value and how it should be interpreted. (2) Even with a particular clearly defined R, there may be different statistical methods used to estimate its value, and the choice of method will affect the estimate. (3) The availability and type of data used to estimate R vary, and it is not always clear what data should be included in the estimation. In this review, we discuss when R is useful, when it may be of use but needs to be interpreted with care, and when it may be an inappropriate indicator of the progress of the epidemic. We also argue that careful definition of R, and the data and methods used to estimate it, can make R a more useful metric for future management of the epidemic

Ring opening metathesis polymerisation of a new bio-derived monomer from itaconic anhydride and furfuryl alcohol

A new oxa-norbornene bio-based lactone obtained from the 100% atom economic reaction of furfuryl alcohol and itaconic anhydride via a tandem Diels-Alder addition and lactonisation is presented. Esterification of the resulting acid gives a monomer for the production of a bio-based polymer with low polydispersity and well controlled molecular weight via ring-opening metathesis polymerisation (ROMP)

Acute and constitutive increases in central serotonin levels reduce social play behaviour in peri-adolescent rats

Item does not contain fulltextRATIONALE: Serotonin is an important modulator of social behaviour. Individual differences in serotonergic signalling are considered to be a marker of personality that is stable throughout lifetime. While a large body of evidence indicates that central serotonin levels are inversely related to aggression and sexual behaviour in adult rats, the relationship between serotonin and social behaviour during peri-adolescence has hardly been explored. OBJECTIVE: To study the effect of acute and constitutive increases in serotonin neurotransmission on social behaviour in peri-adolescent rats. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Social behaviour in peri-adolesent rats (28-35 days old) was studied after genetic ablation of the serotonin transporter, causing constitutively increased extra-neuronal serotonin levels, and after acute treatment with the serotonin reuptake inhibitor fluoxetine or the serotonin releasing agent 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA). A distinction was made between social play behaviour that mainly occurs during peri-adolescence, and non-playful social interactions that are abundant during the entire lifespan of rats. RESULTS: In serotonin transporter knockout rats, social play behaviour was markedly reduced, while non-playful aspects of social interaction were unaffected. Acute treatment with fluoxetine or MDMA dose-dependently inhibited social play behaviour. MDMA also suppressed non-playful social interaction but at higher doses than those required to reduce social play. Fluoxetine did not affect non-playful social interaction. CONCLUSIONS: These data show that both acute and constitutive increases in serotonergic neurotransmission reduce social play behaviour in peri-adolescent rats. Together with our previous findings of reduced aggressive and sexual behaviour in adult serotonin transporter knockout rats, these data support the notion that serotonin modulates social behaviour in a trait-like manner

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

Transmission Selects for HIV-1 Strains of Intermediate Virulence: A Modelling Approach

Recent data shows that HIV-1 is characterised by variation in viral virulence factors that is heritable between infections, which suggests that viral virulence can be naturally selected at the population level. A trade-off between transmissibility and duration of infection appears to favour viruses of intermediate virulence. We developed a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of putative viral genotypes that differ in their virulence. As a proxy for virulence, we use set-point viral load (SPVL), which is the steady density of viral particles in blood during asymptomatic infection. Mutation, the dependency of survival and transmissibility on SPVL, and host effects were incorporated into the model. The model was fitted to data to estimate unknown parameters, and was found to fit existing data well. The maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters produced a model in which SPVL converged from any initial conditions to observed values within 100–150 years of first emergence of HIV-1. We estimated the 1) host effect and 2) the extent to which the viral virulence genotype mutates from one infection to the next, and found a trade-off between these two parameters in explaining the variation in SPVL. The model confirms that evolution of virulence towards intermediate levels is sufficiently rapid for it to have happened in the early stages of the HIV epidemic, and confirms that existing viral loads are nearly optimal given the assumed constraints on evolution. The model provides a useful framework under which to examine the future evolution of HIV-1 virulence

β-Adrenoreceptor Stimulation Mediates Reconsolidation of Social Reward-Related Memories

In recent years, the notion that consolidated memories become transiently unstable after retrieval and require reconsolidation to persist for later use has received strong experimental support. To date, the majority of studies on reconsolidation have focused on memories of negative emotions, while the dynamics of positive memories have been less well studied. Social play, the most characteristic social behavior displayed by young mammals, is important for social and cognitive development. It has strong rewarding properties, illustrated by the fact that it can induce conditioned place preference (CPP). In order to understand the dynamics of positive social memories, we evaluated the effect of propranolol, a β-adrenoreceptor antagonist known to influence a variety of memory processes, on acquisition, consolidation, retrieval and reconsolidation of social play-induced CPP in adolescent rats.Systemic treatment with propranolol, immediately before or after a CPP test (i.e. retrieval session), attenuated CPP 24 h later. Following extinction, CPP could be reinstated in saline--but not in propranolol-treated rats, indicating that propranolol treatment had persistently disrupted the CPP memory trace. Propranolol did not affect social play-induced CPP in the absence of memory retrieval or when administered 1 h or 6 h after retrieval. Furthermore, propranolol did not affect acquisition, consolidation or retrieval of social play-induced CPP.We conclude that β-adrenergic neurotransmission selectively mediates the reconsolidation, but not other processes involved in the storage and stability of social reward-related memories in adolescent rats. These data support the notion that consolidation and reconsolidation of social reward-related memories in adolescent rats rely on distinct neural mechanisms

Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions ('lockdowns') were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement lockdown exit strategies that allow restrictions to be relaxed while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, will allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. The roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policy-makers, and is made up of three parts: i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in Low-to-Middle-Income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health

Beta-carotene affects gene expression in lungs of male and female Bcmo1−/− mice in opposite directions

Molecular mechanisms triggered by high dietary beta-carotene (BC) intake in lung are largely unknown. We performed microarray gene expression analysis on lung tissue of BC supplemented beta-carotene 15,15′-monooxygenase 1 knockout (Bcmo1−/−) mice, which are—like humans—able to accumulate BC. Our main observation was that the genes were regulated in an opposite direction in male and female Bcmo1−/− mice by BC. The steroid biosynthetic pathway was overrepresented in BC-supplemented male Bcmo1−/− mice. Testosterone levels were higher after BC supplementation only in Bcmo1−/− mice, which had, unlike wild-type (Bcmo1+/+) mice, large variations. We hypothesize that BC possibly affects hormone synthesis or metabolism. Since sex hormones influence lung cancer risk, these data might contribute to an explanation for the previously found increased lung cancer risk after BC supplementation (ATBC and CARET studies). Moreover, effects of BC may depend on the presence of frequent human BCMO1 polymorphisms, since these effects were not found in wild-type mice

Plasma metabolomics and proteomics profiling after a postprandial challenge reveal subtle diet effects on human metabolic status

We introduce the metabolomics and proteomics based Postprandial Challenge Test (PCT) to quantify the postprandial response of multiple metabolic processes in humans in a standardized manner. The PCT comprised consumption of a standardized 500 ml dairy shake containing respectively 59, 30 and 12 energy percent lipids, carbohydrates and protein. During a 6 h time course after PCT 145 plasma metabolites, 79 proteins and 7 clinical chemistry parameters were quantified. Multiple processes related to metabolism, oxidation and inflammation reacted to the PCT, as demonstrated by changes of 106 metabolites, 31 proteins and 5 clinical chemistry parameters. The PCT was applied in a dietary intervention study to evaluate if the PCT would reveal additional metabolic changes compared to non-perturbed conditions. The study consisted of a 5-week intervention with a supplement mix of anti-inflammatory compounds in a crossover design with 36 overweight subjects. Of the 231 quantified parameters, 31 had different responses over time between treated and control groups, revealing differences in amino acid metabolism, oxidative stress, inflammation and endocrine metabolism. The results showed that the acute, short term metabolic responses to the PCT were different in subjects on the supplement mix compared to the controls. The PCT provided additional metabolic changes related to the dietary intervention not observed in non-perturbed conditions. Thus, a metabolomics based quantification of a standardized perturbation of metabolic homeostasis is more informative on metabolic status and subtle health effects induced by (dietary) interventions than quantification of the homeostatic situation