Global sensitivity analysis of a one-dimensional ocean biogeochemical model

Ocean biogeochemical (BGC) models are a powerful tool for investigating ocean biogeochemistry and the global carbon cycle. The potential benefits emanating from BGC simulations and predictions are broad, with significant societal impacts from fisheries management to carbon dioxide removal and policy-making. These models contain numerous parameters, each coupled with large uncertainties, leading to significant uncertainty in the model outputs. This study performs a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of an ocean BGC model to identify the uncertain parameters that impact the variability of model outputs most. The BGC model Regulated Ecosystem Model 2 is used in a one-dimensional configuration at two ocean sites in the North Atlantic (BATS) and the Mediterranean Sea (DYFAMED). Variance-based Sobol' indices are computed to identify the most influential parameters for each site for the quantities of interest (QoIs) commonly considered for the calibration and validation of BGC models. The most sensitive parameters are the chlorophyll to nitrogen ratio, chlorophyll degradation rate, zooplankton grazing and excretion parameters, photosynthesis parameters, and nitrogen and carbon remineralization rate. Overall, the sensitivities of most QoIs were similar across the two sites; however, some differences emerged because of different mixed layer depths. The results suggest that implementing multiple zooplankton function types in BGC models can improve BGC predictions. Further, explicitly implementing heterotrophic bacteria in the model can better simulate the carbon export production and CO2 fluxes. The study offers a comprehensive list of the most important BGC parameters that need to be quantified for future modeling applications and insights for BGC model developments.  </jats:p

Simulationsbasierte Personaleinsatzplanung für komplexe Montagesysteme: Simulationsbasierte Personaleinsatzplanung für komplexe Montagesysteme

In der Klein- und Mittelserienfertigung von Maschinen, Anlagen und Großfahrzeugen spielt die kostenintensive manuelle Montage bis heute eine dominierende Rolle. Ein Grund dafür sind die speziellen Anforderungen an das technische Handling der Bauteile und Baugruppen sowie die teils komplizierte geometrische Gestalt der Teile und Einbauräume. Ein weiterer Grund besteht in der von den Herstellern zunehmend geforderten Produktvarianz. Dies bedingt immense Herausforderungen an eine effiziente Planung, Steuerung und Überwachung der Montageprozesse. Die Organisation der manuellen Montage derartiger Produkte ist jedoch schwer zu optimieren. Im Rahmen des nachfolgend vorgestellten Projektes wird ein neuer wissenschaftlich begründeter Lösungsansatz für die optimierte operative Einsatzplanung des Montagepersonals erarbeitet – ein hochkomplexes, sogenanntes Multiressourcen-Einsatzproblem.In the production of small and mid-size series of machines, facilities and large vehicles the cost-intensive manual assembly still plays a dominating role. Both huge costs for the automated handling of the components and assemblies and the complicated geometry of the parts and the assembly space are reasons for manual assembly. In addition, the increasing product variance due to highly customized configurations creates a large variety of requirements with respect to efficient assembly process design for the manufacturers. The product variants demanded by the customers as well as the constantly increasing complexity of the products cause immense challenges to efficient planning, control, and monitoring of the assembly process. However, the management of such complex manual assembly lines is difficult to optimize. In this paper, the authors outline a simulation-based scheduling heuristic for solving this problem

Predictive Value of HAS-BLED Score Regarding Bleeding Events and Graft Survival following Renal Transplantation

Objective: Due to the high prevalence and incidence of cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases among dialysis-dependent patients with end-stage renal disease (ERSD) scheduled for kidney transplantation (KT), the use of antiplatelet therapy (APT) and/or anticoagulant drugs in this patient population is common. However, these patients share a high risk of complications, either due to thromboembolic or bleeding events, which makes adequate peri- and post-transplant anticoagulation management challenging. Predictive clinical models, such as the HAS-BLED score developed for predicting major bleeding events in patients under anticoagulation therapy, could be helpful tools for the optimization of antithrombotic management and could reduce peri- and postoperative morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data from 204 patients undergoing kidney transplantation (KT) between 2011 and 2018 at the University Hospital Leipzig were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were stratified and categorized postoperatively into the prophylaxis group (group A)—patients without pretransplant anticoagulation/antiplatelet therapy and receiving postoperative heparin in prophylactic doses—and into the (sub)therapeutic group (group B)—patients with postoperative continued use of pretransplant antithrombotic medication used (sub)therapeutically. The primary outcome was the incidence of postoperative bleeding events, which was evaluated for a possible association with the use of antithrombotic therapy. Secondary analyses were conducted for the associations of other potential risk factors, specifically the HAS-BLED score, with allograft outcome. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression as well as a Cox proportional hazard model were used to identify risk factors for long-term allograft function, outcome and survival. The calibration and prognostic accuracy of the risk models were evaluated using the Hosmer–Lemshow test (HLT) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) model. Results: In total, 94 of 204 (47%) patients received (sub)therapeutic antithrombotic therapy after transplantation and 108 (53%) patients received prophylactic antithrombotic therapy. A total of 61 (29%) patients showed signs of postoperative bleeding. The incidence (p < 0.01) and timepoint of bleeding (p < 0.01) varied significantly between the different antithrombotic treatment groups. After applying multivariate analyses, pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) (OR 2.89 (95% CI: 1.02–8.21); p = 0.04), procedure-specific complications (blood loss (OR 1.03 (95% CI: 1.0–1.05); p = 0.014), Clavien–Dindo classification > grade II (OR 1.03 (95% CI: 1.0–1.05); p = 0.018)), HAS-BLED score (OR 1.49 (95% CI: 1.08–2.07); p = 0.018), vit K antagonists (VKA) (OR 5.89 (95% CI: 1.10–31.28); p = 0.037), the combination of APT and therapeutic heparin (OR 5.44 (95% CI: 1.33–22.31); p = 0.018) as well as postoperative therapeutic heparin (OR 3.37 (95% CI: 1.37–8.26); p < 0.01) were independently associated with an increased risk for bleeding. The intraoperative use of heparin, prior antiplatelet therapy and APT in combination with prophylactic heparin was not associated with increased bleeding risk. Higher recipient body mass index (BMI) (OR 0.32 per 10 kg/m2 increase in BMI (95% CI: 0.12–0.91); p = 0.023) as well as living donor KT (OR 0.43 (95% CI: 0.18–0.94); p = 0.036) were associated with a decreased risk for bleeding. Regarding bleeding events and graft failure, the HAS-BLED risk model demonstrated good calibration (bleeding and graft failure: HLT: chi-square: 4.572, p = 0.802, versus chi-square: 6.52, p = 0.18, respectively) and moderate predictive performance (bleeding AUC: 0.72 (0.63–0.79); graft failure: AUC: 0.7 (0.6–0.78)). Conclusions: In our current study, we could demonstrate the HAS-BLED risk score as a helpful tool with acceptable predictive accuracy regarding bleeding events and graft failure following KT. The intensified monitoring and precise stratification/assessment of bleeding risk factors may be helpful in identifying patients at higher risks of bleeding, improved individualized anticoagulation decisions and choices of antithrombotic therapy in order to optimize outcome after kidney transplantatio

Konzepte und Strategien für ein zielfunktionsorientiertes Prozess-Mapping von Mitarbeiter-Ressourcen innerhalb der Auftragsfertigung

Der Planungsprozess des Produktionsablaufes ist insbesondere in personalintensiven Bereichen durch einen hohen Komplexitätsgrad gekennzeichnet. Dies gilt nicht allein für die Domäne der Fertigung von Industriegütern, sondern ist überall dort charakteristisch, wo projektähnliche Aufgaben und Tätigkeiten im Kurzfristbereich hinsichtlich Ressourcenzuteilung determiniert werden müssen. Personal ist hierbei weitaus weniger homogen, als dies auf andere Ressourcentypen zutrifft. Daher gilt es der Heterogenität der Prozesse und Strukturen unter Beachtung individuell ausgeprägter Eigenschaften und Fähigkeiten des Personals einen quantitativ beschreibbaren und damit operationali-sierbaren Rahmen zu geben. Die Komplexität einer personalbezogenen, zielfunktionsorientierten Zuteilungsentscheidung kann im Kontext der Kapazitätsplanung damit signifikant reduziert werden

Hidden Strains: Understanding Schizophrenia's Impact on Families and Communities

"Hidden Strains: Understanding Schizophrenia's Impact on Families and Communities" examines the challenges family caregivers of schizophrenia patients face in Romania. This study uncovers the socio-economic burdens and limited psychiatric support, particularly in rural areas, compounded by societal stigma. A significant finding is the caregivers' knowledge gap about schizophrenia, underscoring the need for mental health education for early detection and stigma reduction. The research stresses the vital roles of family and community in schizophrenia care, advocating for more community resources. It introduces innovative care models like the "Open Dialogue Approach" from Scandinavia, suggesting solutions for Romania's mental health challenges. Broadening its view, "Hidden Strains" contrasts Romanian mental health issues with global trends, emphasizing the urgency of mental health reforms. Concluding with recommendations for worldwide application, this work offers insights for professionals, caregivers, and policymakers, and resonates universally despite its Romanian foundation

COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons for spatial development

Background and aims of this position paper: Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, it has become ever clearer that it poses an enormous challenge for society. The lockdown imposed on large parts of public life, which hit all social groups and institutions relatively abruptly with a wide range of impacts, as well as the measures adopted subsequently have resulted in radical changes in our living conditions. In some cases, the crisis has acted as an accelerator of trends affecting processes that were already ongoing: the digitalisation of communications and educational processes, the growth in working from home and mobile working arrangements, the expansion of online retail, changes in travel behaviour (in favour of cars and bicycles), and the establishment of regional service networks. At the same time, there has been a braking effect on sectors such as long-distance travel, global trade, trade fairs and cultural events, as well as on progress towards gender equality in the division of labour for household responsibilities and childcare. Socio-spatial, infrastructural, economic and ecological effects are becoming increasingly apparent. For those involved in spatial development and spatial planning, urgent questions arise not only about the weaknesses that have become apparent in our spatial uses in terms of infrastructure and public service provision, the economy and ecology, and in our ways of life in terms of housing and the supply of goods and services, but also about what opportunities have emerged for sustainable and self-determined lifestyles. What conclusions for anticipatory and preventive planning can be drawn from these (provisional) findings? Using a critical, multidisciplinary and integrative examination of the spatially-relevant effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper establishes connections between the crisis management of today and crisis preparedness concepts for potential future pandemics. Building on that, it proposes corresponding recommended actions. These actions relate not only to insights for medium-term space-related crisis management but also to conclusions on long-term strategic challenges for spatial development in view of pandemics to be expected in the future. For this position paper, the 'Pandemic and Spatial Development' Ad hoc Working Group at the ARL - Academy for Territorial Development in the Leibniz Association has compiled interdisciplinary perspectives from spatial development and spatial planning, public health services, epidemiology, economics and social sciences, and has condensed them into transdisciplinary recommendations for action. These recommendations are directed at the various action levels for spatial development and spatial planning

Fullerene-Based Materials as Hole-Transporting/Electron Blocking Layers. Applications in Perovskite Solar Cells

Here we report for the first time an efficient fullerenebased compound, FU7, able to act as Hole-Transporting Material (HTM) and electron blocking contact. It has been applied on perovskite solar cells (PSCs), obtaining 0.81 times the efficiency of PSCs with the standard HTM, spiro-OMeTAD, with the additional advantage that this performance is reached without any additive introduced in the HTM layer. Moreover, as a proof of concept, we have described for the first time efficient PSCs where both selective contacts are fullerene derivatives, to obtain unprecedented “fullerene sandwich” PSCs

Correlates of Adverse Outcomes in Abdominally Obese Individuals: Findings from the Five-Year Followup of the Population-Based Study of Health in Pomerania

Background. Abdominal obesity is a major risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2DM), and premature death. However, it has not been resolved which factors predispose for the development of these adverse obesity-related outcomes in otherwise healthy individuals with abdominal obesity. Methods. We studied 1,506 abdominal obese individuals (waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) ≥ 0.5) free of CVD or T2DM from the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania and assessed the incidence of CVD or T2DM after a five-year followup. Logistic regression models were adjusted for major cardiovascular risk factors and liver, kidney diseases, and sociodemographic status. Results. During follow-up time, we observed 114 and 136 new T2DM and CVD cases, respectively. Regression models identified age, waist circumference, serum glucose, and liver disease as predictors of T2DM. Regarding CVD, only age, unemployment, and a divorced or widowed marital status were significantly associated with incident CVD. In this subgroup of obese individuals blood pressure, serum glucose, or lipids did not influence incidence of T2DM or CVD. Conclusion. We identified various factors associated with an increased risk of incident T2DM and CVD among abdominally obese individuals. These findings may improve the detection of high-risk individuals and help to advance prevention strategies in abdominal obesity

SARS-CoV-2-Pandemie: Was lernen wir daraus für die Raumentwicklung?

[Veranlassung und Ziele des Positionspapiers] Seit Beginn der "Corona-Krise"/SARS-CoV-2-Pandemie wird immer deutlicher, dass es sich hierbei um eine gesellschaftliche Herausforderung größten Ausmaßes handelt. Der sog. Lockdown weiter Teile des öffentlichen Lebens, der relativ unvermittelt alle sozialen Gruppen und Institutionen mit den unterschiedlichsten Konsequenzen traf, und die darauf aufbauenden Maßnahmen stellen eine radikale Veränderung unserer Lebensumstände dar. Die Krise ist zumindest in Teilen zu einem großen Trendverstärker für bereits ablaufende Prozesse geworden: bei der Digitalisierung von Kommunikations- und Lernprozessen, der Zunahme an Homeoffice/mobilem Arbeiten, der Ausweitung von Onlinehandel, Veränderungen im Mobilitätsverhalten (zugunsten Pkw und Fahrrad) und regionaler Vernetzung der Leistungserbringung. Gleichzeitig wurden Entwicklungen wie Fernreisen, globaler Handel, Messen und Kultur, aber auch eine geschlechtergerechtere Arbeitsteilung mit Blick auf Haushalt und Kinderbetreuung ausgebremst. Sozialräumliche, infrastrukturelle sowie ökonomische und ökologische Auswirkungen zeichnen sich offener ab. Es stellt sich für die Akteure der Raumentwicklung und Raumplanung dringlich die Frage, welche Schwächen unserer Raumnutzungen im Hinblick auf Infrastrukturen und Daseinsvorsorge, Ökonomie und Ökologie, unserer Lebensmodelle mit Wohnen und Versorgung - aber auch welche Chancen für nachhaltige und selbstbestimmte Lebensweisen - offensichtlich geworden sind. Was ergibt sich aus diesen (vorläufigen) Erkenntnissen für eine vorausschauende und vorsorgende Planung? Auf Grundlage einer kritischen, multidisziplinären und integrativen Betrachtung raumrelevanter Auswirkungen der Corona-Krise wird der Bogen geschlagen von der aktuellen Krisenbewältigung zur konzeptionellen Krisenvorsorge für mögliche künftig zu erwartende Pandemien. Darauf aufbauend werden entsprechende Handlungsempfehlungen formuliert. Sie beziehen sich nicht nur auf Erkenntnisse zum mittelfristigen raumbezogenen Krisenmanagement, sondern auch auf Aussagen zu langfristigen strategischen Herausforderungen der räumlichen Entwicklung angesichts zukünftig zu erwartender Pandemien. Der Ad-hoc-Arbeitskreis "Pandemie und Raumentwicklung" der ARL - Akademie für Raumentwicklung in der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft hat hierzu für dieses Positionspapier interdisziplinäre Perspektiven aus Raumentwicklung und Raumplanung, Öffentlichem Gesundheitsdienst (ÖGD), Epidemiologie/ Public Health und Ökonomie sowie Sozialwissenschaften zusammengetragen und zu transdisziplinären Handlungsempfehlungen verdichtet. Diese richten sich an die unterschiedlichen Handlungsebenen der Raumentwicklung und Raumplanung