Using synchronization to improve earthquake forecasting in a cellular automaton model

A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of anticipated synchronization between pairs of chaotic oscillators, recently developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake forecasting algorithms in which different pattern recognition functions are used for identifying seismic premonitory phenomena. In the new strategy, copies (clones) of the original system (the master) are defined, and they are driven using rules that tend to synchronize them with the master dynamics. The observation of definite patterns in the state of the clones is the signal for connecting an alarm in the original system that efficiently marks the impending occurrence of a catastrophic event. The power of this method is quantitatively illustrated by forecasting the occurrence of characteristic earthquakes in the so-called Minimalist Model.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

La oposición monárquica y su aproximación al franquismo a partir de 1954

El objetivo del artículo es aclarar el cambio en la política de oposición monárquica a partir de 1954, momento clave para la formación del Príncipe Juan Carlos con el inicio de su etapa universitaria. Las fuentes utilizadas proceden de archivos personales del conde de Fontanar, Julio Danvila y conde de los Andes. La metodología consiste en revisar la acción monárquica y su influencia en las decisiones tomadas por don Juan de Borbón a lo largo de 1954. Se revisa la errática acción monárquica a lo largo de ese año y los manejos de los diversos grupos monárquicos que terminaron con la imposición del grupo partidario de la educación del Príncipe en España. En este contexto, la preparación de la entrevista de Las Cabezas entre Franco y don Juan supuso el triunfo del sector más próximo al régimen, al tomar nuevamente Julio Danvila las riendas como enlace entre Estoril y El Pardo.--------------1954, a meaningful moment of Prince Juan Carlos education training process before the beginning of his university stage, starts with a misunderstanding between don Juan and Franco. This article reviews the erratic monarchic action throughout the year and the embroilment of the various monarchist groups that resulted in the imposition of spanish education supporters. The preparation of Las Cabezas’ interview between Franco and don Juan marked the success of the regime’s closest sector, with the take up again the reins of Julio Danvila as a political agent between Estoril and El Pardo

Implementation of an extended ZINB model in the study of low levels of natural gastrointestinal nematode infections in adult sheep

Background: In this study, two traits related with resistance to gastrointestinal nematodes (GIN) were measured in 529 adult sheep: faecal egg count (FEC) and activity of immunoglobulin A in plasma (IgA). In dry years, FEC can be very low in semi-extensive systems, such as the one studied here, which makes identifying animals that are resistant or susceptible to infection a difficult task. A zero inflated negative binomial model (ZINB) model was used to calculate the extent of zero inflation for FEC; the model was extended to include information from the IgA responses. Results: In this dataset, 64 % of animals had zero FEC while the ZINB model suggested that 38 % of sheep had not been recently infected with GIN. Therefore 26 % of sheep were predicted to be infected animals with egg counts that were zero or below the detection limit and likely to be relatively resistant to nematode infection. IgA activities of all animals were then used to decide which of the sheep with zero egg counts had been exposed and which sheep had not been recently exposed. Animals with zero FEC and high IgA activity were considered resistant while animals with zero FEC and low IgA activity were considered as not recently infected. For the animals considered as exposed to the infection, the correlations among the studied traits were estimated, and the influence of these traits on the discrimination between unexposed and infected animals was assessed. Conclusions: The model presented here improved the detection of infected animals with zero FEC. The correlations calculated here will be useful in the development of a reliable index of GIN resistance that could be of assistance for the study of host resistance in studies based on natural infection, especially in adult sheep, and also the design of breeding programs aimed at increasing resistance to parasites

Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model

International audienceUsing error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%