Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production

Are we on the right path? Measuring progress towards environmental sustainability in European countries

Current environmental and sustainable development metrics fail to capture environmental sustainability from a strong sustainability perspective, which can lead to misleading messages around the urgency to reduce environmental degradation. The Environmental Sustainability Gap (ESGAP) framework addresses this measurement gap with metrics that reflect whether the functions of natural capital can be sustained in the long term. To date, the framework has been implemented through the Strong Environmental Sustainability Index (SESI), which provides a ‘snapshot’ perspective on whether countries meet science-based environmental standards for a wide range of environmental and resource topics at a given point in time. However, SESI does not show whether countries are moving towards or away from environmental sustainability. This is a perspective often overlooked in many environmental and sustainable development metrics. To address this research gap, this paper presents the Strong Environmental Sustainability Progress Index (SESPI). SESPI comprises 19 indicators. For each of these indicators, it measures whether under current trends, standards of environmental sustainability would be reached in 2030. The resulting information is normalised, weighted and aggregated into a single index that has been computed for 28 European countries. The results show mixed progress for Europe with notable differences between countries and indicators, but generally speaking, it can be concluded that Europe is not on a sustainable path. All in all, SESPI can answer the question of whether we are making progress towards environmental sustainability and make the main messages more digestible to decision-makers and the general public

Energy use in the global food system

The global food system is a major energy user and a relevant contributor to climate change. To date, the literature on the energy profile of food systems addresses individual countries and/or food products, and therefore a comparable assessment across regions is still missing. This paper uses a global multi-regional environmentally extended input–output database in combination with newly constructed net energy-use accounts to provide a production and consumption-based stock-take of energy use in the food system across different world regions for the period 2000–2015. Overall, the ratio between energy use in the food system and the economy is slowly decreasing. Likewise, the absolute values point toward a relative decoupling between energy use and food production, as well as to relevant differences in energy types, users, and consumption patterns across world regions. The use of (inefficient) traditional biomass for cooking substantially reduces the expected gap between per capita figures in high- and low-income countries. The variety of energy profiles and the higher exposure to energy security issues compared to the total economy in some regions suggests that interventions in the system should consider the geographical context. Reducing energy use and decarbonizing the supply chains of food products will require a combination of technological measures and behavioral changes in consumption patterns. Interventions should consider the effects beyond the direct effects on energy use, because changing production and consumption patterns in the food system can lead to positive spillovers in the social and environmental dimensions outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals

Energy use in the global food system

The global food system is a major energy user and a relevant contributor to climate change. To date, the literature on the energy profile of food systems addresses individual countries and/or food products, and therefore a comparable assessment across regions is still missing. This paper uses a global multi-regional environmentally extended input–output database in combination with newly constructed net energy-use accounts to provide a production and consumption-based stock-take of energy use in the food system across different world regions for the period 2000–2015. Overall, the ratio between energy use in the food system and the economy is slowly decreasing. Likewise, the absolute values point toward a relative decoupling between energy use and food production, as well as to relevant differences in energy types, users, and consumption patterns across world regions. The use of (inefficient) traditional biomass for cooking substantially reduces the expected gap between per capita figures in high- and low-income countries. The variety of energy profiles and the higher exposure to energy security issues compared to the total economy in some regions suggests that interventions in the system should consider the geographical context. Reducing energy use and decarbonizing the supply chains of food products will require a combination of technological measures and behavioral changes in consumption patterns. Interventions should consider the effects beyond the direct effects on energy use, because changing production and consumption patterns in the food system can lead to positive spillovers in the social and environmental dimensions outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals

Durable Goods Drive Two-Thirds of Global Households’ Final Energy Footprints

Sustainability endorses high quality, long-lasting goods. Durable goods, however, often require substantial amounts of energy during their production and use-phase and indirectly through complementary products and services. We quantify the global household’s final energy footprints (EFs) of durable goods and the complementary goods needed to operate, service and maintain durables. We calculate the EFs of 200 goods across 44 individual countries and 5 world regions for the period of 1995–2011. In 2011, we find 68% of the total global household’s EF (218 EJ) is durable-related broken down as follows: 10% is due to the production of durables per se, 7% is embodied in goods complementary to durables (consumables and services) and 51% is operational energy. At the product level, the highest durable-related EFs are: transport goods (148–648 MJ/cap), housing goods (40–811 MJ/cap), electric appliances (34–181 MJ/cap), and “gas stoves and furnaces” (40–100 MJ/cap). Between 1995 and 2011, the global household EF increased by 28% (48 EJ), of which 72% was added by durable-related energy. Globally, a 10% income growth corresponded to an increase in EF by 9% in durables, 11% in complementary consumables and 13% in complementary services—with even higher elasticities in the emerging economies. The average EF of the emerging economies (35 GJ/cap) is 2.5 times lower than in advanced economies (86 GJ/cap). Efficiency gains were detected in 47 out of 49 regions, but only 16 achieved net energy reductions. The large share of durable-related EF across regions (40–88%) confirms the dominance of durables in driving EFs, but the diversity of patterns suggests that policy and social factors influence durable-dependency. Demand-side solutions targeting ownership and inter-linkages between durables and complements are key to reduce global energy demand

Durable Goods Drive Two-Thirds of Global Households’ Final Energy Footprints

Sustainability endorses high quality, long-lasting goods. Durable goods, however, often require substantial amounts of energy during their production and use-phase and indirectly through complementary products and services. We quantify the global household’s final energy footprints (EFs) of durable goods and the complementary goods needed to operate, service and maintain durables. We calculate the EFs of 200 goods across 44 individual countries and 5 world regions for the period of 1995–2011. In 2011, we find 68% of the total global household’s EF (218 EJ) is durable-related broken down as follows: 10% is due to the production of durables per se, 7% is embodied in goods complementary to durables (consumables and services) and 51% is operational energy. At the product level, the highest durable-related EFs are: transport goods (148–648 MJ/cap), housing goods (40–811 MJ/cap), electric appliances (34–181 MJ/cap), and “gas stoves and furnaces” (40–100 MJ/cap). Between 1995 and 2011, the global household EF increased by 28% (48 EJ), of which 72% was added by durable-related energy. Globally, a 10% income growth corresponded to an increase in EF by 9% in durables, 11% in complementary consumables and 13% in complementary services—with even higher elasticities in the emerging economies. The average EF of the emerging economies (35 GJ/cap) is 2.5 times lower than in advanced economies (86 GJ/cap). Efficiency gains were detected in 47 out of 49 regions, but only 16 achieved net energy reductions. The large share of durable-related EF across regions (40–88%) confirms the dominance of durables in driving EFs, but the diversity of patterns suggests that policy and social factors influence durable-dependency. Demand-side solutions targeting ownership and inter-linkages between durables and complements are key to reduce global energy demand

XIOBASE 3: Developing a Time Series of Detailed Environmentally Extended Multi‐Regional Input‐Output Tables

Environmentally extended multiregional input‐output (EE MRIO) tables have emerged as a key framework to provide a comprehensive description of the global economy and analyze its effects on the environment. Of the available EE MRIO databases, EXIOBASE stands out as a database compatible with the System of Environmental‐Economic Accounting (SEEA) with a high sectorial detail matched with multiple social and environmental satellite accounts. In this paper, we present the latest developments realized with EXIOBASE 3—a time series of EE MRIO tables ranging from 1995 to 2011 for 44 countries (28 EU member plus 16 major economies) and five rest of the world regions. EXIOBASE 3 builds upon the previous versions of EXIOBASE by using rectangular supply‐use tables (SUTs) in a 163 industry by 200 products classification as the main building blocks. In order to capture structural changes, economic developments, as reported by national statistical agencies, were imposed on the available, disaggregated SUTs from EXIOBASE 2. These initial estimates were further refined by incorporating detailed data on energy, agricultural production, resource extraction, and bilateral trade. EXIOBASE 3 inherits the high level of environmental stressor detail from its precursor, with further improvement in the level of detail for resource extraction. To account for the expansion of the European Union (EU), EXIOBASE 3 was developed with the full EU28 country set (including the new member state Croatia). EXIOBASE 3 provides a unique tool for analyzing the dynamics of environmental pressures of economic activities over time

Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production