Risk Spillovers between Global Corporations and Latin American Sovereigns: Global Factors Matter

We study volatility spillovers between the corporate sector’s and Latin American countries’ CDS. Daily data from October 14 2006 to August 23 2021 are employed. Spillovers are computed both for the raw data and for filtered series which factor out the effect of global common factors on the various CDS series. Results indicate that most spillovers occur within groups, i.e., within countries and within global corporations. However, considerable spillovers are also registered from LAC sovereigns to corporations and vice versa. Interesting differences are encountered between filtered and unfiltered data. Specifically, spillovers from countries to corporations are overestimated (in about 4.3 percentage points) and spillovers from corporations to sovereigns are underestimated (in about 5.8 percentage points) when unfiltered data is used. This result calls for a revision of results obtained from studies that do not consider the role of global common factors on system spillovers. Like in most related studies, spillovers show considerable time-variation, being larger during times of financial or economic distress. When looking at total system spillovers over time, those corresponding to unfiltered series are always larger than those corresponding to filtered series. The difference between the two time-series is largest in times of distress, indicating that global factors play a major role in times of crises. Similar conclusions are derived from network analysis

Asymmetric Sovereign Risk: Implications for Climate Change Preparation

Sovereign risk exhibits significantly asymmetric reactions to its determinants across the conditional distribution of credit spreads. This aspect, previously overlooked in the literature, carries relevant policy implications. Countries with elevated risk levels are disproportionately affected by climate change vulnerability compared to their lower-risk counterparts, especially in the short term. Factors such as inflation, natural resource rents, and the debt-to-GDP ratio exert different effects between low and high-risk spreads as well. Real growth and terms of trade have a stable but modest impact across the spread distribution. Notably, investing in climate change preparedness proves effective in mitigating vulnerability to climate change, in terms of sovereign risk, particularly for countries with low spreads and long-term debt (advanced economies), where readiness and vulnerability tend to counterbalance each other. However, for countries with high spreads and short-term debt, additional measures are essential as climate change readiness alone is insufficient to offset vulnerability effects in this case. Results also demonstrate that the actual occurrence of natural disasters is less influential than vulnerability to climate change in determining spreads

Does economic complexity reduce the probability of a fiscal crisis?

Higher economic complexity of a country reduces the probability of suffering a fiscal crisis between 46% and 57%. Along with institutional factors, complexity is shown to be sufficient to describe the risk of facing episodes of fiscal distress. On the contrary, the role of variables frequently emphasized by the literature and policy markets, such as the debt-output ratio, real growth, inflation, terms of trade or fiscal balance, is very modest or insignificant. Development strategies that aim for greater economic complexity also promise to reduce countries’ fiscal vulnerabilit

Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity: Machine Learning Insights on Causality and Prediction

We investigate how a country’s economic complexity influences its sovereign yield spread with respect to the US. We analyze various maturities across 28 countries, consisting of 16 emerging and 12 advanced economies. Notably, a one-unit increase in the economic complexity index is associated to a reduction of about 87 basis points in the 10-year yield spread (p<0.01). However, this effect is largely non-significant for maturities under 3 years and, when significant (p<0.1), the reduction is around 54 bps. This suggests that economic complexity affects not only the level of the sovereign yield spreads but also the curve slope. Our first set of models utilizes Advanced causal machine learning tools, allowing us to control for a large set of potential confounders. This is crucial given our relatively small dataset of countries and roughly 15 years of data, as well as the low frequency of annual variables. In the second part of our analysis, we shift our focus to economic complexity’s predictive power. Our findings reveal that econòmic complexity is a robust predictor of sovereign spreads at 5-year and 10-year maturities, ranking among the top three predictors, alongside inflation and institutional factors like the rule of law. We also discuss the potential mechanisms through which economic complexity reduces sovereign risk and emphasize its role as a long-run determinant of productivity, output and income stability, and the likelihood of fiscal crises

Pesticide Exposure Alters Follicle-Stimulating Hormone Levels in Mexican Agricultural Workers

Organophosphorous pesticides (OPs) are suspected of altering reproductive function by reducing brain acetylcholinesterase activity and monoamine levels, thus impairing hypothalamic and/or pituitary endocrine functions and gonadal processes. Our objective was to evaluate in a longitudinal study the association between OP exposure and serum levels of pituitary and sex hormones. Urinary OP metabolite levels were measured by gas–liquid chromatography, and serum pituitary and sex hormone levels by enzymatic immunoassay and radioimmunoassay in 64 men. A total of 147 urine and blood samples were analyzed for each parameter. More than 80% of the participants had at least one OP metabolite in their urine samples. The most frequent metabolite found was diethylthiophosphate (DETP; 55%), followed by diethylphosphate (DEP; 46%), dimethylthiophosphate (DMTP; 32%), and dimethyldithiophosphate (DMDTP; 31%). However, the metabolites detected at higher concentrations were DMTP, DEP, DMDTP, and dimethylphosphate. There was a high proportion of individuals with follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) concentrations outside the range of normality (48%). The average FSH serum levels were higher during the heavy pesticide spraying season. However, a multivariate analysis of data collected in all periods showed that serum FSH levels were negatively associated with urinary concentrations of both DMTP and DMDTP, whereas luteinizing hormone (LH) was negatively associated with DMTP. We observed no significant associations between estradiol or testosterone serum levels with OP metabolites. The hormonal disruption in agricultural workers presented here, together with results from experimental animal studies, suggests that OP exposure disrupts the hypothalamic–pituitary endocrine function and also indicates that FSH and LH are the hormones most affected

Automatización y computación distribuida para laboratorios de informática forense

El crecimiento del volumen digital en las pericias informáticas es uno de los factores críticos que lleva al colapso de los laboratorios de informática forense y al aumento de las listas de espera de casos en trámite. Urge entonces comenzar a transitar un nuevo camino en lo que refiere a aspectos metodológicos, junto con la aplicación de nuevas técnicas y herramientas de informática forense apoyadas en recursos tecnológicos que provean una razonable capacidad de cómputo y de almacenamiento masivo de información digital. Este trabajo presenta la implementación y experimentación sobre una infraestructura de cómputo distribuido llevada adelante en el Gabinete de Pericias Informáticas del Poder Judicial del Neuquén, integrando diversas aplicaciones de informática forense con el objeto de automatizar y agilizar aquellas actividades operativas que demandan tiempos elevados durante el proceso forense digital. A la luz de los cambios en los plazos procesales para la investigación penal que operan luego de la última reforma al Código Procesal Penal de la Provincia del Neuquén se procura maximizar la disponibilidad de recursos computacionales para el procesamiento de evidencia digital.Sociedad Argentina de Informática e Investigación Operativa (SADIO

Comparación de métodos para la recuperación y determinación de la prevalencia de Streptococcus agalactiae en mujeres gestantes de Medellín

ResumenStreptococcus agalactiae es un coco Gram positivo que se encuentra frecuentemente asociado a infecciones en neonatos, mujeres embarazadas y adultos inmunocomprometidos.ObjetivoComparar la sensibilidad de los métodos para la recuperación y la determinación de la prevalencia de S. agalactiae en un grupo de mujeres gestantes de Medellín.Materiales y métodosSe llevó a cabo un estudio descriptivo de corte. La población estudiada fueron 362 mujeres gestantes que consultaron en el periodo comprendido entre febrero y octubre de 2008, a las que se les tomaron muestras con hisopo del introito vaginal y de la región anal. Las muestras secultivaron simultáneamente en agar Nueva Granada y caldo Todd Hewitt con suplemento de antibióticos, a partir del cual se hizo un subcultivo en agar sangre de carnero al 5%.ResultadosAl comparar el método de recuperación en agar Nueva Granada con el método de referencia en caldo Todd Hewitt, la sensibilidad del primero fue de 44% y el valor diagnóstico positivo de 58%; presentó una alta especificidad (98%) y un valor diagnóstico negativo de 99%. Se identificó S. agalactiae en 21 (5,8%) gestantes.ConclusiónEl cultivo en caldo Todd Hewitt es un método sensible para la recuperación de S. agalactiae. Por consiguiente, se recomienda continuar con esta metodología para la tamización de mujeres gestantes en nuestro medio. La prevalencia de 5,8% encontrada en este estudio concuerda con los reportes de la literatura mundial y, teniendo en cuenta que la tasa de transmisión vertical es, aproximadamente, de 50% (1), se demuestra la necesidad de implementar medidas de vigilancia epidemiológica en nuestro medio.Streptococcus agalactiae, is a Gram positive coccus that is frequently associated to infections in neonates, pregnant women, and immunocompromised adults.ObjectiveCompare method sensitivity for recovery from S. agalactiae and to determine its prevalence in a group of pregnant women of the city of Medellín.Materials and methodsCross-sectional descriptive study. The population was pregnant women of Medellín who consulted from February to October, 2008; 362 pregnant women were included; the samples were taken from vagina introitus and anal area. The samples were simultaneously cultured in New Granada Agar and Todd Hewitt Broth supplemented with antibiotics, which was the base for the performance of a subculture in Ram Blood Agar at 5%.ResultsWhen comparing the New Granada Agar method of recovery with the Todd Hewitt Broth gold test, the sensitivity of the first was 44% and the positive predictive value was 58%; it presented 98% specificity and a negative predictive value of 99%. S. agalactiae was found in 21 (5.8%) pregnant women.ConclusionsTodd Hewitt Broth is a sensitive method for the recovery from S. agalactiae; therefore, continuing with this methodology for the screening of pregnant women in our environment is recommended. The 5,8% prevalence found in this study is consistent with the reports in world-wide literature. Considering that the rate of vertical transmission is approximately 50%, the need to implement epidemiological surveillance measures in our environment is evident

Los hayedos prepirenaicos aragoneses:: fitosociología, fitotopografía y conservación

Tras el estudio de los hayedos prepirenaicos aragoneses (provincias de Zaragoza y Huesca), los autores presentan una tabla de más de 50 inventarios correspondiente al Buxo- Fagetum sylvaticae y explican su composición florística, hábitat y fitotopografía. También se dan tres inventarios del Scillo-Fagetum sylvaticae, mucho más localizado en esta región. Por último, se describe su estado de conservación y se dan algunas recomendaciones para su protección.Prepyrenean aragonese beech-forests (Zaragoza and Huesca provinces) were studied during two years. As a result we present a table of the Buxo-Fagetum sylvaticae (56 releves), a widespread community, and comment on its floristical composition and ecology.Also the more isolated beech-forest of the Scillo-Fagetum sylvaticae is here introduced (3 releves). Finally, some ideas for conservation of these forests are also pointed out

Perspectives on the implementation of screening and treatment for depression and alcohol Use disorder in primary care in Colombia

Q2Depression and alcohol use disorder (AUD) greatly contribute to the burden of disease worldwide, and have large impact on Colombia’s population. In this study, a qualitative analysis evaluates the implementation of a technology-supported model for screening, decision support, and digital therapy for depression and AUD in Colombian primary care clinics. Patient, provider, and administrator interviews were conducted, exploring attitudes towards depression and AUD, attitudes towards technology, and implementation successes and challenges. Researchers used qualitative methods to analyze interview themes. Despite stigma around depression and AUD, the model improved provider capacity to diagnose and manage patients, helped patients feel supported, and provided useful prevalence data for administrators. Challenges included limited provider time and questions about sustainability. The implementation facilitated the identifcation, diagnosis, and care of patients with depression and AUD. There is ongoing need to decrease stigma, create stronger networks of mental health professionals, and transition intervention ownership to the healthcare center.Revista Internacional - Indexad

Factores demográficos y psicosociales asociados al exceso de peso en una población de Colombia

Introducción: la obesidad es una enfermedad de alto interés en salud pública y de etiología multifactorial. Es necesario conocer los aspectos ambientales propios de cada región que contribuyen al desarrollo de esta patología. El objetivo del estudio fue evaluar en la actualidad en una población colombiana la asociación entre diversos factores demográficos y psicosociales de la infancia y la edad adulta con tener exceso de peso. Materiales y métodos: se realizó un estudio observacional, descriptivo y de corte transversal mediante una encuesta electrónica realizada a pacientes y acompañantes en la Clínica FOSCAL, donde se evaluaron las variables demográficas, las condiciones de vida en la infancia y los hábitos actuales. Fueron incluidos sujetos mayores de 18 años. Las personas con déficit cognitivo, pérdida involuntaria de más del 10 % del peso y embarazadas fueron excluidas. Resultados: en el análisis se incluyeron 490 participantes con edad promedio de 31,4±15 años; el 58,8 % fue mujeres y el 91,4 % procedía del área urbana. El 44,8 % de los encuestados tenía exceso de peso (32,6 % sobrepeso y 12,2 % obesidad). Se encontró asociación entre la edad actual (OR: 1,11; IC 95 %: 1,04-1,19; p=0,0,002), el peso alcanzado a los 18 años (OR: 1,10; IC 95%: 1,06-1,15; p<0,001) y haber vivido en la infancia en un conjunto residencial (OR: 0,40; IC 95 %: 0,18-0,88; p<0,001) con tener exceso de peso en la actualidad. Se apreció una ganancia de peso de 0,35 kg por año de vida cumplido. Otros hallazgos, como el consumo de alcohol y sustancias psicoactivas, así como la actividad física semanal no tuvieron asociación. Conclusiones: la edad, el peso alcanzado a los 18 años y el no haber vivido en un conjunto residencial en la infancia fueron los factores asociados a tener exceso de peso en una población adulta colombiana