Currency Unions and Trade: A PPML Re-Assessment with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects

Recent work on the effects of currency unions (CUs) on trade stresses the importance of using many countries and years in order to obtain reliable estimates. However, for large samples, computational issues associated with the three-way (exporter-time, importer-time, and country-pair) fixed effects currently recommended in the gravity literature have heretofore limited the choice of estimator, leaving an important methodological gap. To address this gap, we introduce an iterative Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation procedure that facilitates the inclusion of these fixed effects for large data sets and also allows for correlated errors across countries and time. When applied to a comprehensive sample with more than 200 countries trading over 65 years, these innovations flip the conclusions of an otherwise rigorously-specified linear model. Most importantly, our estimates for both the overall CU effect and the Euro effect specifically are economically small and statistically insignificant. We also document that linear and PPML estimates of the Euro effect increasingly diverge as the sample size grows

Signatures of Chaos in Time Series Generated by Many-Spin Systems at High Temperatures

Extracting reliable indicators of chaos from a single experimental time series is a challenging task, in particular, for systems with many degrees of freedom. The techniques available for this purpose often require unachievably long time series. In this paper, we explore a new method of discriminating chaotic from multi-periodic integrable motion in many-particle systems. The applicability of this method is supported by our numerical simulations of the dynamics of classical spin lattices at high temperatures. We compared chaotic and nonchaotic regimes of these lattices and investigated the transition between the two. The method is based on analyzing higher-order time derivatives of the time series of a macroscopic observable --- the total magnetization of the spin lattice. We exploit the fact that power spectra of the magnetization time series generated by chaotic spin lattices exhibit exponential high-frequency tails, while, for the integrable spin lattices, the power spectra are terminated in a non-exponential way. We have also demonstrated the applicability limits of the above method by investigating the high-frequency tails of the power spectra generated by quantum spin lattices and by the classical Toda lattice.Comment: This is the final version accepted for publication: 12 pages, 14 figures. The article is significantly revised and extende

Regulation of Intestinal UDP-Glucuronosyltransferase 1A1 by the Farnesoid X Receptor Agonist Obeticholic Acid Is Controlled by Constitutive Androstane Receptor through Intestinal Maturation

UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT) 1A1 is the only transferase capable of conjugating serum bilirubin. However, temporal delay in the development of the UGT1A1 gene leads to an accumulation of serum bilirubin in newborn children. Neonatal humanized UGT1 (hUGT1) mice, which accumulate severe levels of total serum bilirubin (TSB), were treated by oral gavage with obeticholic acid (OCA), a potent FXR agonist. OCA treatment led to dramatic reduction in TSB levels. Analysis of UGT1A1 expression confirmed that OCA induced intestinal and not hepatic UGT1A1. Interestingly, Cyp2b10, a target gene of the nuclear receptor CAR, was also induced by OCA in intestinal tissue. In neonatal hUGT1/Car(-/-) mice, OCA was unable to induce CYP2B10 and UGT1A1, confirming that CAR and not FXR is involved in the induction of intestinal UGT1A1. However, OCA did induce FXR target genes, such as Shp, in both intestines and liver with induction of Fgf15 in intestinal tissue. Circulating FGF15 activates hepatic FXR and, together with hepatic Shp, blocks Cyp7a1 and Cyp7b1 gene expression, key enzymes in bile acid metabolism. Importantly, the administration of OCA in neonatal hUGT1 mice accelerates intestinal epithelial cell maturation, which directly impacts on induction of the UGT1A1 gene and the reduction in TSB levels. Accelerated intestinal maturation is directly controlled by CAR, since induction of enterocyte marker genes sucrase-isomaitase, alkaline phosphatase 3, and keratin 20 by OCA does not occur in hUGT1/Car(-/-) mice. Thus, new findings link an important role for CAR in intestinal UGT1A1 induction and its role in the intestinal maturation pathway. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Obeticholic acid (OCA) activates FXR target genes in both liver and intestinal tissues while inducing intestinal UGT1A1, which leads to the elimination of serum bilirubin in humanized UGT1 mice. However, the induction of intestinal UGT1A1 and the elimination of bilirubin by OCA is driven entirely by activation of intestinal CAR and not FXR. The elimination of serum bilirubin is based on a CARdependent mechanism that facilitates the acceleration of intestinal epithelium cell differentiation, an event that underlies the induction of intestinal UGT1A1

Dengue epidemics and human mobility

In this work we explore the effects of human mobility on the dispersion of a vector borne disease. We combine an already presented stochastic model for dengue with a simple representation of the daily motion of humans on a schematic city of 20x20 blocks with 100 inhabitants in each block. The pattern of motion of the individuals is described in terms of complex networks in which links connect different blocks and the link length distribution is in accordance with recent findings on human mobility. It is shown that human mobility can turn out to be the main driving force of the disease dispersal.Comment: 24 pages, 13 figure

A geometric approach to visualization of variability in functional data

We propose a new method for the construction and visualization of boxplot-type displays for functional data. We use a recent functional data analysis framework, based on a representation of functions called square-root slope functions, to decompose observed variation in functional data into three main components: amplitude, phase, and vertical translation. We then construct separate displays for each component, using the geometry and metric of each representation space, based on a novel definition of the median, the two quartiles, and extreme observations. The outlyingness of functional data is a very complex concept. Thus, we propose to identify outliers based on any of the three main components after decomposition. We provide a variety of visualization tools for the proposed boxplot-type displays including surface plots. We evaluate the proposed method using extensive simulations and then focus our attention on three real data applications including exploratory data analysis of sea surface temperature functions, electrocardiogram functions and growth curves

Generalized methods and solvers for noise removal from piecewise constant signals. I. Background theory

Removing noise from piecewise constant (PWC) signals is a challenging signal processing problem arising in many practical contexts. For example, in exploration geosciences, noisy drill hole records need to be separated into stratigraphic zones, and in biophysics, jumps between molecular dwell states have to be extracted from noisy fluorescence microscopy signals. Many PWC denoising methods exist, including total variation regularization, mean shift clustering, stepwise jump placement, running medians, convex clustering shrinkage and bilateral filtering; conventional linear signal processing methods are fundamentally unsuited. This paper (part I, the first of two) shows that most of these methods are associated with a special case of a generalized functional, minimized to achieve PWC denoising. The minimizer can be obtained by diverse solver algorithms, including stepwise jump placement, convex programming, finite differences, iterated running medians, least angle regression, regularization path following and coordinate descent. In the second paper, part II, we introduce novel PWC denoising methods, and comparisons between these methods performed on synthetic and real signals, showing that the new understanding of the problem gained in part I leads to new methods that have a useful role to play