Iterative Near-Term Ecological Forecasting: Needs, Opportunities, And Challenges

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward

Comment on Worldwide evidence of a unimodal relationship between productivity and plant species richness

Se analizan en este artículo los preceptos de la Propuesta de Ley sobre reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Extremadura dedicados a la economía de Extremadura, analizándose los principios generales aplicable en la materia, la planificación económica, el sector público y las entidades financieras, materia ésta en la que se también se efectúan unas breves consideraciones sobre la incidencia que sobre las competencias de las Comunidades Autónomas supone la implantación del Fondo de Reestructuración Ordenada Bancaria efectuada por el Real Decreto-ley 9/2009, de 26 de junio, sobre reestructuración bancaria y reforzamiento de los recursos propios de las entidades de crédito.This article discusses the provisions of the Proposal Law on reform of the Statute of Autonomy of Extremadura dedicated to the economy of Extremadura, analyzing the general principles applicable to the matter, economic planning, public sector and financial institutions, about this topic it also makes some brief thoughts on the impact on the powers of the Spanish Autonomous Communities that involves the introduction of the Fund for the Orderly Banking Restructuring by Real Decreto-ley 9/2009, of June 26, for the bank restructuring and strengthening the own resources of the credit entities.peerReviewe

Asynchrony among local communities stabilises ecosystem function of metacommunities

Temporal stability of ecosystem functioning increases the predictability and reliability of ecosystem services, and understanding the drivers of stability across spatial scales is important for land management and policy decisions. We used species-level abundance data from 62 plant communities across five continents to assess mechanisms of temporal stability across spatial scales. We assessed how asynchrony (i.e. different units responding dissimilarly through time) of species and local communities stabilised metacommunity ecosystem function. Asynchrony of species increased stability of local communities, and asynchrony among local communities enhanced metacommunity stability by a wide range of magnitudes (1-315%); this range was positively correlated with the size of the metacommunity. Additionally, asynchronous responses among local communities were linked with species' populations fluctuating asynchronously across space, perhaps stemming from physical and/or competitive differences among local communities. Accordingly, we suggest spatial heterogeneity should be a major focus for maintaining the stability of ecosystem services at larger spatial scales

Asynchrony among local communities stabilises ecosystem function of metacommunities

Abstract Temporal stability of ecosystem functioning increases the predictability and reliability of ecosystem services, and understanding the drivers of stability across spatial scales is important for land management and policy decisions. We used species-level abundance data from 62 plant communities across five continents to assess mechanisms of temporal stability across spatial scales. We assessed how asynchrony (i.e. different units responding dissimilarly through time) of species and local communities stabilised metacommunity ecosystem function. Asynchrony of species increased stability of local communities, and asynchrony among local communities enhanced metacommunity stability by a wide range of magnitudes (1–315%); this range was positively correlated with the size of the metacommunity. Additionally, asynchronous responses among local communities were linked with species’ populations fluctuating asynchronously across space, perhaps stemming from physical and/or competitive differences among local communities. Accordingly, we suggest spatial heterogeneity should be a major focus for maintaining the stability of ecosystem services at larger spatial scales

Asynchrony among local communities stabilises ecosystem function of metacommunities

Temporal stability of ecosystem functioning increases the predictability and reliability of ecosystem services, and understanding the drivers of stability across spatial scales is important for land management and policy decisions. We used species-level abundance data from 62 plant communities across five continents to assess mechanisms of temporal stability across spatial scales. We assessed how asynchrony (i.e. different units responding dissimilarly through time) of species and local communities stabilised metacommunity ecosystem function. Asynchrony of species increased stability of local communities, and asynchrony among local communities enhanced metacommunity stability by a wide range of magnitudes (1–315%); this range was positively correlated with the size of the metacommunity. Additionally, asynchronous responses among local communities were linked with species’ populations fluctuating asynchronously across space, perhaps stemming from physical and/or competitive differences among local communities. Accordingly, we suggest spatial heterogeneity should be a major focus for maintaining the stability of ecosystem services at larger spatial scales.Fil: Wilcox, Kevin R.. Oklahoma State University; Estados UnidosFil: Tredennick, Andrew T.. State University of Utah; Estados UnidosFil: Koerner, Sally E.. University of North Carolina; Estados UnidosFil: Grman, Emily. Eastern Michigan University; Estados UnidosFil: Hallett, Lauren M.. University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Avolio, Meghan L.. University Johns Hopkins; Estados UnidosFil: La Pierre, Kimberly J.. Smithsonian Environmental Research Center; Estados UnidosFil: Houseman, Gregory R.. Wichita State University; Estados UnidosFil: Forest, Isbell. University of Minnesota; Estados UnidosFil: Johnson, David Samuel. Virginia Institute of Marine Science; Estados UnidosFil: Alatalo, Juha M.. Qatar University; QatarFil: Baldwin, Andrew H.. University of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: Bork, Edward W.. University of Alberta; CanadáFil: Boughton, Elizabeth H.. MacArthur Agroecology Research Center; Estados UnidosFil: Bowman, William D.. University of Colorado; Estados UnidosFil: Britton, Andrea J.. James Hutton Institute; Estados UnidosFil: Cahill, James F.. University of Alberta; CanadáFil: Collins, Scott L.. University of New Mexico; Estados UnidosFil: Du, Guozhen. Lanzhou University; ChinaFil: Eskelinen, Anu. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research; Alemania. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research; Alemania. University of Oulu; FinlandiaFil: Gough, Laura. Towson University; Estados UnidosFil: Jentsch, Anke. University of Bayreuth; AlemaniaFil: Kern, Christel. United States Forest Service; Estados UnidosFil: Klanderud, Kari. Norwegian University of Life Sciences; NoruegaFil: Knapp, Alan K.. Colorado State University; Estados UnidosFil: Kreyling, Juergen. Greifswald University; AlemaniaFil: Luo, Yiqi. Oklahoma State University; Estados Unidos. Northern Arizona University; Estados Unidos. Tsinghua University; ChinaFil: McLaren, James E.. University of Texas at El Paso; Estados UnidosFil: Megonigal, Patrick. Smithsonian Environmental Research Center; Estados UnidosFil: Onipchenko, Vladimir. Moscow State Lomonosov University; RusiaFil: Prevéy, Janet. Pacific Northwest Research Station; Estados UnidosFil: Price, Jodi N.. Charles Sturt University; AustraliaFil: Robinson, Clare H.. University of Manchester; Reino UnidoFil: Sala, Osvaldo Esteban. Arizona State University; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; ArgentinaFil: Smith, Melinda D.. Colorado State University; Estados UnidosFil: Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A.. Leiden University; Países BajosFil: Souza, Lara. Oklahoma State University; Estados UnidosFil: Tilman, David. University of Minnesota; Estados UnidosFil: White, Shannon R.. Government of Alberta; CanadáFil: Xu, Zhuwen. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Yahdjian, María Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; ArgentinaFil: Yu, Qiang. Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; ChinaFil: Zhang, Pengfei. Lanzhou University; ChinaFil: Zhang, Yunhai. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China. University Aarhus; Dinamarc