Trust and Risk Relationship Analysis on a Workflow Basis: A Use Case

Trust and risk are often seen in proportion to each other; as such, high trust may induce low risk and vice versa. However, recent research argues that trust and risk relationship is implicit rather than proportional. Considering that trust and risk are implicit, this paper proposes for the first time a novel approach to view trust and risk on a basis of a W3C PROV provenance data model applied in a healthcare domain. We argue that high trust in healthcare domain can be placed in data despite of its high risk, and low trust data can have low risk depending on data quality attributes and its provenance. This is demonstrated by our trust and risk models applied to the BII case study data. The proposed theoretical approach first calculates risk values at each workflow step considering PROV concepts and second, aggregates the final risk score for the whole provenance chain. Different from risk model, trust of a workflow is derived by applying DS/AHP method. The results prove our assumption that trust and risk relationship is implicit

To Trust or Not to Trust? Developing Trusted Digital Spaces through Timely Reliable and Personalized Provenance

Organizations are increasingly dependent on data stored and processed by distributed, heterogeneous services to make critical, high-value decisions. However, these service-oriented computing environments are dynamic in nature and are becoming ever more complex systems of systems. In such evolving and dynamic eco-system infrastructures, knowing how data was derived is of significant importance in determining its validity and reliability. To address this, a number of advocates and theorists postulate that provenance is critical to building trust in data and the services that generated it as it provides evidence for data consumers to judge the integrity of the results. This paper presents a summary of the STRAPP (trusted digital Spaces through Timely Reliable And Personalised Provenance) project, which is designing and engineering mechanisms to achieve a holistic solution to a number of real-world service-based decision-support systems

Becoming a Viking: DNA testing, genetic ancestry and placeholder identity

A consensus has developed among social and biological scientists around the problematic nature of genetic ancestry testing, specifically that its popularity will lead to greater genetic essentialism in social identities. Many of these arguments assume a relatively uncritical engagement with DNA, under ‘highstakes’ conditions. We suggest that in a biosocial society, more pervasive ‘lowstakes’ engagement is more likely. Through qualitative interviews with participants in a study of the genetic legacy of the Vikings in Northern England, we investigate how genetic ancestry results are discursively worked through. The identities formed in ‘becoming a Viking’ through DNA are characterized by fluidity and reflexivity, rather than essentialism. DNA results are woven into a wider narrative of selfhood relating to the past, the value of which lies in its potential to be passed on within families. While not unproblematic, the relatively banal nature of such narratives within contemporary society is characteristic of the ‘biosociable’

Effects of a carbohydrate-restricted diet on emerging plasma markers for cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence supports carbohydrate restricted diets (CRD) for weight loss and improvement in traditional markers for cardiovascular disease (CVD); less is known regarding emerging CVD risk factors. We previously reported that a weight loss intervention based on a CRD (% carbohydrate:fat:protein = 13:60:27) led to a mean weight loss of 7.5 kg and a 20% reduction of abdominal fat in 29 overweight men. This group showed reduction in plasma LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides and elevations in HDL-cholesterol as well as reductions in large and medium VLDL particles and increases in LDL particle size. In this study we report on the effect of this intervention with and without fiber supplementation on plasma homocysteine, lipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)], C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α). METHODS: Twenty nine overweight men [body mass index (BMI) 25–35 kg/m(2)] aged 20–69 years consumed an ad libitum CRD (% carbohydrate:fat:protein = 13:60:27) including a standard multivitamin every other day for 12 wk. Subjects were matched by age and BMI and randomly assigned to consume 3 g/d of either a soluble fiber supplement (n = 14) or placebo (n = 15). RESULTS: There were no group or interaction (fiber × time) main effects, but significant time effects were observed for several variables. Energy intake was spontaneously reduced (-30.5%). This was accompanied by an increase in protein intake (96.2 ± 29.8 g/d to 107.3 ± 29.7 g/d) and methionine intake (2.25 ± 0.7 g/d, to 2.71 ± 0.78 g/d; P < 0.001). Trans fatty acid intake was significantly reduced (-38.6%) while dietary folate was unchanged, as was plasma homocysteine. Bodyweight (-7.5 ± 2.5 kg) was reduced as was plasma Lp(a) (-11.3%). Changes in plasma Lp(a) correlated with reductions in LDL-cholesterol (r = .436, P < 0.05) and fat loss (r = .385, P < 0,05). At wk 12, both CRP (-8.1%) and TNF-α (-9.3%) were reduced (P < 0.05) independently of weight loss. IL-6 concentrations were unchanged. CONCLUSION: A diet based on restricting carbohydrates leads to spontaneous caloric reduction and subsequent improvement in emerging markers of CVD in overweight/obese men who are otherwise healthy

A Folding Pathway-Dependent Score to Recognize Membrane Proteins

While various approaches exist to study protein localization, it is still a challenge to predict where proteins localize. Here, we consider a mechanistic viewpoint for membrane localization. Taking into account the steps for the folding pathway of α-helical membrane proteins and relating biophysical parameters to each of these steps, we create a score capable of predicting the propensity for membrane localization and call it FP3mem. This score is driven from the principal component analysis (PCA) of the biophysical parameters related to membrane localization. FP3mem allows us to rationalize the colocalization of a number of channel proteins with the Cav1.2 channel by their fewer propensities for membrane localization

COVID-19-related absence among surgeons: development of an international surgical workforce prediction model

Background: During the initial COVID-19 outbreak up to 28.4 million elective operations were cancelled worldwide, in part owing to concerns that it would be unsustainable to maintain elective surgery capacity because of COVID-19-related surgeon absence. Although many hospitals are now recovering, surgical teams need strategies to prepare for future outbreaks. This study aimed to develop a framework to predict elective surgery capacity during future COVID-19 outbreaks. Methods: An international cross-sectional study determined real-world COVID-19-related absence rates among surgeons. COVID-19-related absences included sickness, self-isolation, shielding, and caring for family. To estimate elective surgical capacity during future outbreaks, an expert elicitation study was undertaken with senior surgeons to determine the minimum surgical staff required to provide surgical services while maintaining a range of elective surgery volumes (0, 25, 50 or 75 per cent). Results Based on data from 364 hospitals across 65 countries, the COVID-19-related absence rate during the initial 6 weeks of the outbreak ranged from 20.5 to 24.7 per cent (mean average fortnightly). In weeks 7–12, this decreased to 9.2–13.8 per cent. At all times during the COVID-19 outbreak there was predicted to be sufficient surgical staff available to maintain at least 75 per cent of regular elective surgical volume. Overall, there was predicted capacity for surgeon redeployment to support the wider hospital response to COVID-19. Conclusion: This framework will inform elective surgical service planning during future COVID-19 outbreaks. In most settings, surgeon absence is unlikely to be the factor limiting elective surgery capacity

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

Planned delivery for pre-eclampsia between 34 and 37 weeks of gestation: the PHOENIX RCT.

BACKGROUND: In women with late preterm pre-eclampsia (i.e. at 34+0 to 36+6 weeks' gestation), the optimal delivery time is unclear because limitation of maternal-fetal disease progression needs to be balanced against infant complications. The aim of this trial was to determine whether or not planned earlier initiation of delivery reduces maternal adverse outcomes without substantial worsening of perinatal or infant outcomes, compared with expectant management, in women with late preterm pre-eclampsia. METHODS: We undertook an individually randomised, triple non-masked controlled trial in 46 maternity units across England and Wales, with an embedded health economic evaluation, comparing planned delivery and expectant management (usual care) in women with late preterm pre-eclampsia. The co-primary maternal outcome was a maternal morbidity composite or recorded systolic blood pressure of ≥ 160 mmHg (superiority hypothesis). The co-primary short-term perinatal outcome was a composite of perinatal deaths or neonatal unit admission (non-inferiority hypothesis). Analyses were by intention to treat, with an additional per-protocol analysis for the perinatal outcome. The primary 2-year infant neurodevelopmental outcome was measured using the PARCA-R (Parent Report of Children's Abilities-Revised) composite score. The planned sample size of the trial was 900 women; the trial is now completed. We undertook two linked substudies. RESULTS: Between 29 September 2014 and 10 December 2018, 901 women were recruited; 450 women [448 women (two withdrew consent) and 471 infants] were allocated to planned delivery and 451 women (451 women and 475 infants) were allocated to expectant management. The incidence of the co-primary maternal outcome was significantly lower in the planned delivery group [289 (65%) women] than in the expectant management group [338 (75%) women] (adjusted relative risk 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.79 to 0.94; p = 0.0005). The incidence of the co-primary perinatal outcome was significantly higher in the planned delivery group [196 (42%) infants] than in the expectant management group [159 (34%) infants] (adjusted relative risk 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.47; p = 0.0034), but indicators of neonatal morbidity were similar in both groups. At 2-year follow-up, the mean PARCA-R scores were 89.5 points (standard deviation 18.2 points) for the planned delivery group (290 infants) and 91.9 points (standard deviation 18.4 points) for the expectant management group (256 infants), both within the normal developmental range (adjusted mean difference -2.4 points, 95% confidence interval -5.4 to 0.5 points; non-inferiority p = 0.147). Planned delivery was significantly cost-saving (-£2711, 95% confidence interval -£4840 to -£637) compared with expectant management. There were nine serious adverse events in the planned delivery group and 12 in the expectant management group. CONCLUSION: In women with late preterm pre-eclampsia, planned delivery reduces short-term maternal morbidity compared with expectant management, with more neonatal unit admissions related to prematurity but no indicators of greater short-term neonatal morbidity (such as need for respiratory support). At 2-year follow-up, around 60% of parents reported follow-up scores. Average infant development was within the normal range for both groups; the small between-group mean difference in PARCA-R scores is unlikely to be clinically important. Planned delivery was significantly cost-saving to the health service. These findings should be discussed with women with late preterm pre-eclampsia to allow shared decision-making on timing of delivery. LIMITATIONS: Limitations of the trial include the challenges of finding a perinatal outcome that adequately represented the potential risks of both groups and a maternal outcome that reflects the multiorgan manifestations of pre-eclampsia. The incidences of maternal and perinatal primary outcomes were higher than anticipated on the basis of previous studies, but this did not limit interpretation of the analysis. The trial was limited by a higher loss to follow-up rate than expected, meaning that the extent and direction of bias in outcomes (between responders and non-responders) is uncertain. A longer follow-up period (e.g. up to 5 years) would have enabled us to provide further evidence on long-term infant outcomes, but this runs the risk of greater attrition and increased expense. FUTURE WORK: We identified a number of further questions that could be prioritised through a formal scoping process, including uncertainties around disease-modifying interventions, prognostic factors, longer-term follow-up, the perspectives of women and their families, meta-analysis with other studies, effect of a similar intervention in other health-care settings, and clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of other related policies around neonatal unit admission in late preterm birth. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was prospectively registered as ISRCTN01879376. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in Health Technology Assessment. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information