The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer: Can It Keep Us All from Needing Hats, Sunglasses, and Suntan Lotion

Damage to the earth\u27s stratospheric ozone layer is an inherently international issue requiring a forthright and fresh approach to international problem solving. The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is a landmark environmental treaty. It requires participating nations to freeze and then reduce production and consumption of economically valuable, but environmentally harmful, chemical compounds. This Note analyzes the efficacy of the provisions of the Protocol in light of both the original and new information on damage to the ozone layer. Discussion will focus on the structure and content of the chemical control measures, concessions for less developed nations, international trade restrictions, and adjustment mechanisms in the event greater or reduced measures are required in the future. In light of new information revealing substantial depletion of the ozone layer, the author concludes that unless the participating nations implement more stringent control measures through the Protocol\u27s adjustment mechanisms, the document will fall short of ceasing ozone destruction

SLIDES: Air Quality - Oil and Gas Development

Presenter: Paul Tourangeau, Assistant General Counsel, DCP Midstream, LP and former Director, Colorado Air Pollution Control Division, addresses regulatory requirements and policies related to air emissions from the oil and gas sector, including recent and current initiatives at the state and federal level 8 slide

Polling bias and undecided voter allocations: US Presidential elections, 2004 - 2016

Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple, deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided were comparatively small enough to assume that they do not affect the relative proportions of the decided voters. However, in the presence of high numbers of undecided voters, these static rules may in fact bias election predictions from election poll authors and meta-poll analysts. In this paper, we examine the effect of undecided voters in the 2016 US presidential election to the previous three presidential elections. We show there were a relatively high number of undecided voters over the campaign and on election day, and that the allocation of undecided voters in this election was not consistent with two-party proportional (or even) allocations. We find evidence that static allocation regimes are inadequate for election prediction models and that probabilistic allocations may be superior. We also estimate the bias attributable to polling agencies, often referred to as "house effects".Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures, 6 table

PRO development: rigorous qualitative research as the crucial foundation

Recently published articles have described criteria to assess qualitative research in the health field in general, but very few articles have delineated qualitative methods to be used in the development of Patient-Reported Outcomes (PROs). In fact, how PROs are developed with subject input through focus groups and interviews has been given relatively short shrift in the PRO literature when compared to the plethora of quantitative articles on the psychometric properties of PROs. If documented at all, most PRO validation articles give little for the reader to evaluate the content validity of the measures and the credibility and trustworthiness of the methods used to develop them. Increasingly, however, scientists and authorities want to be assured that PRO items and scales have meaning and relevance to subjects. This article was developed by an international, interdisciplinary group of psychologists, psychometricians, regulatory experts, a physician, and a sociologist. It presents rigorous and appropriate qualitative research methods for developing PROs with content validity. The approach described combines an overarching phenomenological theoretical framework with grounded theory data collection and analysis methods to yield PRO items and scales that have content validity

GPAQ-R: development and psychometric properties of a version of the general practice assessment questionnaire for use for revalidation by general practitioners in the UK.

BACKGROUND: The General Practice Assessment Questionnaire (GPAQ) has been widely used to assess patient experience in general practice in the UK since 2004. In 2013, new regulations were introduced by the General Medical Council (GMC) requiring UK doctors to undertake periodic revalidation, which includes assessment of patient experience for individual doctors. We describe the development of a new version of GPAQ - GPAQ-R which addresses the GMC's requirements for revalidation as well as additional NHS requirements for surveys that GPs may need to carry out in their own practices. METHODS: Questionnaires were given out by doctors or practice staff after routine consultations in line with the guidance given by the General Medical Council for surveys to be used for revalidation. Data analysis and practice reports were provided independently. RESULTS: Data were analysed for questionnaires from 7258 patients relating to 164 GPs in 29 general practices. Levels of missing data were generally low (typically 4.5-6%). The number of returned questionnaires required to achieve reliability of 0.7 were around 35 for individual doctor communication items and 29 for a composite score based on doctor communication items. This suggests that the responses to GPAQ-R had similar reliability to the GMC's own questionnaire and we recommend 30 completed GPAQ-R questionnaires are sufficient for revalidation purposes. However, where an initial screen raises concern, the survey might be repeated with 50 completed questionnaires in order to increase reliability. CONCLUSIONS: GPAQ-R is a development of a well-established patient experience questionnaire used in general practice in the UK since 2004. This new version can be recommended for use in order to meet the UK General Medical Council's requirements for surveys to be used in revalidation of doctors. It also meets the needs of GPs to ask about patient experience relating to aspects of practice care that are not specific to individual general practitioners (e.g. receptionists, telephone access) which meet other survey requirements of the National Health Service in England. Use of GPAQ-R has the potential to reduce the number of surveys that GPs need to carry out in their practices to meet the various regulatory requirements which they face

Individual differences in causal learning and decision making

This is an accepted author manuscript of an article subsequently published by Elsevier. The final published version can be found here: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actpsy.2005.04.003In judgment and decision making tasks, people tend to neglect the overall frequency of base-rates when they estimate the probability of an event; this is known as the base-rate fallacy. In causal learning, despite people s accuracy at judging causal strength according to one or other normative model (i.e., Power PC, DP), they tend to misperceive base-rate information (e.g., the cause density effect). The present study investigates the relationship between causal learning and decision making by asking whether people weight base-rate information in the same way when estimating causal strength and when making judgments or inferences about the likelihood of an event. The results suggest that people differ according to the weight they place on base-rate information, but the way individuals do this is consistent across causal and decision making tasks. We interpret the results as reflecting a tendency to differentially weight base-rate information which generalizes to a variety of tasks. Additionally, this study provides evidence that causal learning and decision making share some component processes

Insight out : making creativity visible

Models of creative problem solving are predicated upon mental states to explain everything from the outcome of problem‐solving experiments to the emergence of artistic creativity. We present two converging perspectives that describe a profoundly different ontological description of creativity. Our analysis proceeds from a distinction between first‐order problem solving, where the agent interacts with a physical model of the problem and second‐order problem solving, where the agent must cogitate a solution to a problem that is presented as a verbal description of a state of the world but where the agent does not or cannot transform physical elements of a problem. We acknowledge the recent evidence that foregrounds the importance of working memory in problem solving, including insight problem solving. However, we stress that the impressive psychometric success is obtained with a methodology that only measures second‐order problem solving; we question whether first‐order problem solving is equally well predicted by measures of cognitive or dispositional capacities. We propose that if mental simulation is replaced by the opportunity to engage with a physical model of a problem then the environment can provide affordances that help the participant to solve problems. In the second part of the paper, we present the subjective experience of an artist as he monitors the microdecisions that occur during the morphogenesis of a large, clay, sculptural installation. The testimony is a vivid demonstration that creative action occurs, not in the brain, but in the movement between the hand and the clay. Insight becomes outsight

The effects of changes in the order of verbal labels and numerical values on children's scores on attitude and rating scales

Research with adults has shown that variations in verbal labels and numerical scale values on rating scales can affect the responses given. However, few studies have been conducted with children. The study aimed to examine potential differences in children’s responses to Likert-type rating scales according to their anchor points and scale direction, and to see whether or not such differences were stable over time. 130 British children, aged 9 to 11, completed six sets of Likert-type rating scales, presented in four different ways varying the position of positive labels and numerical values. The results showed, both initially and 8-12 weeks later, that presenting a positive label or a high score on the left of a scale led to significantly higher mean scores than did the other variations. These findings indicate that different arrangements of rating scales can produce different results which has clear implications for the administration of scales with children