Forecasting Food Price Inflation in Developing Countries with Inflation Targeting Regimes: the Colombian Case

Many developing countries are adopting inflation targeting regimes to guide monetary policy decisions. In such countries the share of food in the consumption basket is high and policy makers often employ total inflation (as opposed to core inflation) to set inflationary targets. Therefore, central banks need to develop reliable models to forecast food inflation. Our literature review suggests that little has been done in the construction of models to forecast short-run food inflation in developing countries. We develop a model to improve short-run food inflation forecasts in Colombia. The model disaggregates food items according to economic theory and employs Flexible Least Squares given the presence of structural changes in the inflation series. We compare the performance of this new model to current models employed by the central bank. Next, we apply econometric methods to combine forecasts from alternative models and test whether such combination outperforms individual models. Our results indicate that forecasts can be improved by classifying food basket items according to unprocessed, processed and food away from home and by employing forecast combination techniques.Food Inflation, Time Series,

On the interaction between Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand systems and the power network: models and coordination algorithms

We study the interaction between a fleet of electric, self-driving vehicles servicing on-demand transportation requests (referred to as Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand, or AMoD, system) and the electric power network. We propose a model that captures the coupling between the two systems stemming from the vehicles' charging requirements and captures time-varying customer demand and power generation costs, road congestion, battery depreciation, and power transmission and distribution constraints. We then leverage the model to jointly optimize the operation of both systems. We devise an algorithmic procedure to losslessly reduce the problem size by bundling customer requests, allowing it to be efficiently solved by off-the-shelf linear programming solvers. Next, we show that the socially optimal solution to the joint problem can be enforced as a general equilibrium, and we provide a dual decomposition algorithm that allows self-interested agents to compute the market clearing prices without sharing private information. We assess the performance of the mode by studying a hypothetical AMoD system in Dallas-Fort Worth and its impact on the Texas power network. Lack of coordination between the AMoD system and the power network can cause a 4.4% increase in the price of electricity in Dallas-Fort Worth; conversely, coordination between the AMoD system and the power network could reduce electricity expenditure compared to the case where no cars are present (despite the increased demand for electricity) and yield savings of up $147M/year. Finally, we provide a receding-horizon implementation and assess its performance with agent-based simulations. Collectively, the results of this paper provide a first-of-a-kind characterization of the interaction between electric-powered AMoD systems and the power network, and shed additional light on the economic and societal value of AMoD.Comment: Extended version of the paper presented at Robotics: Science and Systems XIV, in prep. for journal submission. In V3, we add a proof that the socially-optimal solution can be enforced as a general equilibrium, a privacy-preserving distributed optimization algorithm, a description of the receding-horizon implementation and additional numerical results, and proofs of all theorem

Representaciones sociales del empleo y desempleo de población del País Vasco

Con la base teórico metodológica de las representaciones sociales (RS) se analizan los conceptos de empleo y desempleo en dos grupos poblacionales del País Vasco: jóvenes de 20 y menos años y adultos mayores de 21 años y más. Se utiliza la técnica asociativa de listados libres para conocer el contenido y estructura de las RS, así como la identificación del núcleo central y los elementos periféricos. Para los participantes el empleo es una ocupación que implica acceso al dinero, favorece la satisfacción de necesidades, genera felicidad. Para los mayores de 21 años es un medio para obtener dignidad, realización y futuro. El desempleo implica la falta de dinero, crisis y pobreza, genera desesperanza, depresión y agobio. Para los mayores de 21 años genera problemas, deudas, depresión y angustia, favorece la marginación y culpan a los políticos y al gobierno de su existencia. Se concluye con propuestas de afrontamiento ante el desempleo por parte de participantes.With the theoretical methodological basis of social representations (SR), concepts of employment and unemployment were analyzed in two population groups from the Basque Country: people 20 years old and under and adults over 21 years old. The associative technique of free listings was used in order to know the content and structure of SR, as well as the identification of the central nucleus and the peripheral elements. For the participants employment is an occupation that implies earning money, allows the needs’ satisfaction, and generates happiness. For the group that was 21 years old or older it means, obtaining dignity, to be satisfied and a sure future. Unemployment leads to a lack of money, crisis and poverty, causes hopelessness, depression and overwhelms the person. For the participants over 21 it generates problems, debts, depression, anguish, marginalization and the politicians and the government are blamed for its existence. We conclude with proposals from participants for coping with unemployment

Solvent-free lipase-catalyzed synthesis of diacylgycerols as low-calorie food ingredients

Problems derived from obesity and overweight have recently promoted the development of fat substitutes and other low-calorie foods. On the one hand, fats with short- and medium-chain fatty acids are a source of quick energy, easily hydrolyzable and hardly stored as fat. Furthermore, 1,3-diacylglycerols are not hydrolyzed to 2-monoacylglycerols in the gastrointestinal tract, reducing the formation of chylomicron and lowers the serum level of triacylglycerols by decreasing its resynthesis in the enterocyte. In this work, these two effects were combined to synthesize short- and medium-chain 1,3-diacylglycerols, leading to a product with great potential as for their low-calorie properties. Lipase-catalyzed transesterification reactions were performed between short- and medium-chain fatty acid ethyl esters and glycerol. Different variables were investigated, such as the type of biocatalyst, the molar ratio FAEE:glycerol, the adsorption of glycerol on silica gel, or the addition of lecithin. Best reaction conditions were evaluated considering the percentage of 1,3-DAG produced and the reaction rate. Except Novozym 435 (Candida antarctica), other lipases required the adsorption of glycerol on silica gel to form acylglycerols. Lipases that gave the best results with adsorption were Novozym 435 and Lipozyme RM IM (Rhizomucor miehei) with 52 and 60.7% DAG at 32h, respectively. Because of its specificity for sn-1 and sn-3 positions, lipases leading to a higher proportion of 1,3-DAG vs. 1,2-DAG were Lipozyme RM IM (39.8 and 20.9%, respectively) and Lipase PLG (Alcaligenes sp.) (35.9 and 19.3%, respectively). By adding 1% (w/w) of lecithin to the reaction with Novozym 435 and raw glycerol, the reaction rate was considerably increased from 41.7 to 52.8% DAG at 24h.This work was supported by the Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid: ALIBIRD, project number S2013/ABI-2728.Peer Reviewe

Inverse sampling and triangular sequential designs to compare a small proportion with a reference value

Inverse sampling and formal sequential designs may prove useful in reducing the sample size in studies where a small population proportion p is compared with a hypothesized reference proportion p0. These methods are applied to the design of a cytogenetic study about chromosomal abnormalities in men with a daughter affected by Turner's syndrome. First it is shown how the calculated sample size for a classical design depends on the parameterization used. Later this sample size is compared with the required sample size in an inverse sampling design and a triangular sequential design using four different parameterizations (absolute differences, log-odds ratio, angular transform and Sprott's transform). The expected savings in sample size, when the alternative hypothesis is true, are 20% of the fixed sample size for the inverse sampling design and 40% for the triangular sequential design

High Angular Resolution Radio Observations of the HL/XZ Tau Region: Mapping the 50 AU Protoplanetary Disk around HL Tau and Resolving XZ Tau S into a 13 AU Binary

We present new 7 mm and archive 1.3 cm high angular resolution observations of the HL/XZ Tau region made with the VLA. At 7 mm, the emission from HL Tau seems to be arising in a clumpy disk with radius of order 25 AU. The 1.3 cm emission from XZ Tau shows the emission from a binary system with 0"3 (42 AU) separation, known from previous optical/IR observations. However, at 7 mm, the southern radio component resolves into a binary with 0"09 (13 AU) separation, suggesting that XZ Tau is actually a triple star system. We suggest that the remarkable ejection of gas from the XZ Tau system observed with the HST may be related to a periastron passage of this newly discovered close binary system.Comment: Accepted by The Astrophysical Journal Letters (23 Jan 2009

Evolutionary Dynamics of Multigene Families in Triportheus (Characiformes, Triportheidae): A Transposon Mediated Mechanism?

Triportheus (Characiformes, Triportheidae) is a freshwater fish genus with 18 valid species. These fishes are widely distributed in the major river drainages of South America, having commercial importance in the fishing market, mainly in the Amazon basin. This genus has diverged recently in a complex process of speciation carried out in different river basins. The use of repetitive sequences is suitable to trace the genomic reorganizations occured along the speciation process. In this work, the 5S rDNA multigene family has been characterized at molecular and phylogenetic level. The results showed that other multigene family has been found within the non-transcribed spacer (NTS): the U1 snRNA gene. Double-FISH with 5S and U1 probes were also performed, confirming the close linkage between these two multigene families. Moreover, evidences of different transposable elements (TE) were detected within the spacer, thus suggesting a transposon-mediated mechanism of 5S-U1 evolutionary pathway in this genus. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated a species-specific grouping, except for Triportheus pantanensis, Triportheus aff. rotundatus and Triportheus trifurcatus. The evolutionary model of the 5S rDNA in Triportheus species has been discussed. In addition, the results suggest new clues for the speciation and evolutionary trend in these species, which could be suitable to use in other Characiformes species

A transcriptomic approach highlights induction of secondary metabolism in citrus fruit in response to Penicillium digitatum infection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Postharvest losses of citrus fruit due to green mold decay, caused by the fungus <it>Penicillium digitaum</it>, have a considerable economic impact. However, little is known about the molecular processes underlying the response of citrus fruit to <it>P. digitatum</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Here we describe the construction of a subtracted cDNA library enriched in citrus genes preferentially expressed in response to pathogen infection followed by cDNA macroarray hybridization to investigate gene expression during the early stages of colonization of the fruit's peel by <it>P. digitatum</it>. Sequence annotation of clones from the subtracted cDNA library revealed that induction of secondary and amino acid metabolisms constitutes the major response of citrus fruits to <it>P. digitatum </it>infection. Macroarray hybridization analysis was conducted with RNA from either control, wounded, ethylene treated or <it>P. digitatum </it>infected fruit. Results indicate an extensive overlap in the response triggered by the three treatments, but also demonstrated specific patterns of gene expression in response to each stimulus. Collectively our data indicate a significant presence of isoprenoid, alkaloid and phenylpropanoid biosynthetic genes in the transcriptomic response of citrus fruits to <it>P. digitatum </it>infection. About half of the genes that are up-regulated in response to pathogen infection are also induced by ethylene, but many examples of ethylene-independent gene regulation were also found. Two notable examples of this regulation pattern are the genes showing homology to a caffeine synthase and a berberine bridge enzyme, two proteins involved in alkaloid biosynthesis, which are among the most induced genes upon <it>P. digitatum </it>infection but are not responsive to ethylene.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study provided the first global picture of the gene expression changes in citrus fruit in response to <it>P. digitatum </it>infection, emphasizing differences and commonalities with those triggered by wounding or exogenous ethylene treatment. Interpretation of the differentially expressed genes revealed that metabolism is redirected to the synthesis of isoprenes, alkaloids and phenylpropanoids.</p