Probing supernova physics with neutrino oscillations

We point out that solar neutrino oscillations with large mixing angle as evidenced in current solar neutrino data have a strong impact on strategies for diagnosing collapse-driven supernova (SN) through neutrino observations. Such oscillations induce a significant deformation of the energy spectra of neutrinos, thereby allowing us to obtain otherwise inaccessible features of SN neutrino spectra. We demonstrate that one can determine temperatures and luminosities of non-electron flavor neutrinos by observing bar{nu}_{e} from galactic SN in massive water Cherenkov detectors by the charged current reactions on protons.Comment: 6 pages. Typos corrected and references added. Version to be published in Physics Letters

Polygons on a Rotating Fluid Surface

We report a novel and spectacular instability of a fluid surface in a rotating system. In a flow driven by rotating the bottom plate of a partially filled, stationary cylindrical container, the shape of the free surface can spontaneously break the axial symmetry and assume the form of a polygon rotating rigidly with a speed different from that of the plate. With water we have observed polygons with up to 6 corners. It has been known for many years that such flows are prone to symmetry breaking, but apparently the polygonal surface shapes have never been observed. The creation of rotating internal waves in a similar setup was observed for much lower rotation rates, where the free surface remains essentially flat. We speculate that the instability is caused by the strong azimuthal shear due to the stationary walls and that it is triggered by minute wobbling of the rotating plate. The slight asymmetry induces a tendency for mode-locking between the plate and the polygon, where the polygon rotates by one corner for each complete rotation of the plate

Assessing the Impacts of the Prescription Drug User Fee Acts (PDUFA) on the FDA Approval Process

Congress enacted and renewed the Prescription Drug User Fee Acts (PDUFA) in 1992, and renewed it in 1997 and 2002, mandating FDA performance goals in reviewing and acting on drug applications within specified time periods. In turn, the FDA was permitted to levy user fees on drug sponsors submitting applications to the FDA. While PDUFA mandated action or review times, its ultimate impacts on actual final drug approval times are unknown. We model and quantify the impact of PDUFA-I and II on drug approval times, since these approval dates are the ones most directly related to new medicines becoming available to benefit patients. In assessing the impacts of PDUFA on drug approval times, it is noteworthy that approval times were trending downwards at 1.7% percent per year prior to implementation of PDUFA. Assuming continuation of that time trend, approval times post-PDUFA would have fallen even in the absence of PDUFA. Our principal finding is that PDUFA accelerated this downward trend so that instead of a counterfactual 6% reduction in approval times from 24.2 to 20.4 months in absence of these acts between 1991 and 2002, there was an observed decline of about 42%, from 24.2 to 14.2 months, following implementation of PDUFA. Thus, of the total observed decline in approval times between 1991 and 2002, approximately two-thirds can be attributed to PDUFA. However, much of this impact occurred in the initial years between 1992 and 1997 (PDUFA-I) rather than during the subsequent 1997-2002 time frame (PDUFA-II). We discuss implications of these findings and how future research might quantify the social value of the observed acceleration in the FDA drug approvals.

Assessing the Safety and Efficacy of the FDA: The Case of the Prescription Drug User Fee Acts

The US Food and drug Administration (FDA) is estimated to regulate markets accounting for about 20% of consumer spending in the US. This paper proposes a general methodology to evaluate FDA policies, in general, and the central speed-safety tradeoff it faces, in particular. We apply this methodology to estimate the welfare effects of a major piece of legislation affecting this tradeoff, the Prescription Drug User Fee Acts (PDUFA). We find that PDUFA raised the private surplus of producers, and thus innovative returns, by about $11 to$13 billion. Dependent on the market power assumed of producers while having patent protection, we find that PDUFA raised consumer welfare between $5 to$19 billion; thus the combined social surplus was raised between $18 to$31 billions. Converting these economic gains into equivalent health benefits, we find that the more rapid access of drugs on the market enabled by PDUFA saved the equivalent of 180 to 310 thousand life-years. Additionally, we estimate an upper bound on the adverse effects of PDUFA based on drugs submitted during PDUFA I/II and subsequently withdrawn for safety reasons, and find that an extreme upper bound of about 56 thousand life-years were lost. We discuss how our general methodology could be used to perform a quantitative and evidence-based evaluation of the desirability of other FDA policies in the future, particularly those affecting the speed-safety tradeoff.

Parameter Degeneracy in Flavor-Dependent Reconstruction of Supernova Neutrino Fluxes

We reexamine the possibility of reconstructing the initial fluxes of supernova neutrinos emitted in a future core-collapse galactic supernova explosion and detected in a Megaton-sized water Cherenkov detector. A novel key element in our method is the inclusion, in addition to the total and the average energies of each neutrino species, of a "pinching" parameter characterizing the width of the distribution as a fit parameter. We uncover in this case a continuous degeneracy in the reconstructed parameters of supernova neutrino fluxes at the neutrinosphere. We analyze in detail the features of this degeneracy and show how it occurs irrespective of the parametrization used for the distribution function. Given that this degeneracy is real we briefly comment on possible steps towards resolving it, which necessarily requires going beyond the setting presented here.Comment: 28 pages, 37 figures, version with some improvements in the text and some new references, conclusions unchanged, to appear in JCA

Técnicas de levantamento e monitoração de populações de carnívoros

Diferentes técnicas vêm sendo utilizadas em levantamentos de carnívoros, e o principal fator que influencia as estimativas é a detectabilidade. Raramente todos os animais presentes em uma dada área são detectados num levantamento, e a maioria das estimativas são baseadas em contagens incompletas. Por outro lado, nem sempre se faz necessário a obtenção de estimativas de abundãncia absoluta ou de densidade absoluta, e um índice de abundância pode ser o suficiente para, por exemplo, avaliar as tendências da população. Índices de abundância precisam ter uma forte correlação com a abundância absoluta ou com a densidade, para que sejam úteis. Índices podem ser obtidos de contagens incompletas, em relação ao esforço empregado, usando sinais da presença de animais, fotografia remota e outras técnicas. Métodos para estimar a densidade ou abundância absoluta podem ser divididos em diretas e indiretas.bitstream/CPAP/55978/1/DOC73.pdfFormato Eletrônic

Supreme Court Amicus Brief Regarding Wyeth v. Diana Levine

Prominent in arguments opposing preemption of state tort law liability for alleged inadequacies in prescription drug labeling is the argument that such liability can complement FDA regulation by improving on a regulatory scheme that fails to provide adequate deterrence against the marketing of unsafe or inadequately labeled drugs. The premise of this argument is faulty. Fundamental principles of economics and numerous studies of FDA drug regulation reveal that FDA in fact errs on the side of overregulation of prescription drugs. Product liability litigation focused solely on one side of the prescription drug public health equation leads to further distortions of the drug approval and labeling process and exacerbates FDA's inherent overly cautious approach. Preemption of state tort law where it conflicts with FDA requirements will minimize these distortions and thereby maximize public health.Health and Safety, Other Topics

Interactive extraction of diverse vocal units from a planar embedding without the need for prior sound segmentation

Annotating and proofreading data sets of complex natural behaviors such as vocalizations are tedious tasks because instances of a given behavior need to be correctly segmented from background noise and must be classified with minimal false positive error rate. Low-dimensional embeddings have proven very useful for this task because they can provide a visual overview of a data set in which distinct behaviors appear in different clusters. However, low-dimensional embeddings introduce errors because they fail to preserve distances; and embeddings represent only objects of fixed dimensionality, which conflicts with vocalizations that have variable dimensions stemming from their variable durations. To mitigate these issues, we introduce a semi-supervised, analytical method for simultaneous segmentation and clustering of vocalizations. We define a given vocalization type by specifying pairs of high-density regions in the embedding plane of sound spectrograms, one region associated with vocalization onsets and the other with offsets. We demonstrate our two-neighborhood (2N) extraction method on the task of clustering adult zebra finch vocalizations embedded with UMAP. We show that 2N extraction allows the identification of short and long vocal renditions from continuous data streams without initially committing to a particular segmentation of the data. Also, 2N extraction achieves much lower false positive error rate than comparable approaches based on a single defining region. Along with our method, we present a graphical user interface (GUI) for visualizing and annotating data

Triplet Leptogenesis in Left-Right Symmetric Seesaw Models

We discuss scalar triplet leptogenesis in a specific left-right symmetric seesaw model. We show that the Majorana phases that are present in the model can be effectively used to saturate the existing upper limit on the CP-asymmetry of the triplets. We solve the relevant Boltzmann equations and analyze the viability of triplet leptogenesis. It is known for this kind of scenario that the efficiency of leptogenesis is maximal if there exists a hierarchy between the branching ratios of the triplet decays into leptons and Higgs particles. We show that triplet leptogenesis typically favors branching ratios with not too strong hierarchies, since maximal efficiency can only be obtained at the expense of suppressed CP-asymmetries.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, published versio

Neutrino signatures of supernova shock and reverse shock propagation

A few seconds after bounce in a core-collapse supernova, the shock wave passes the density region corresponding to resonant neutrino oscillations with the ``atmospheric'' neutrino mass difference. The transient violation of the adiabaticity condition manifests itself in an observable modulation of the neutrino signal from a future galactic supernova. In addition to the shock wave propagation effects that were previously studied, a reverse shock forms when the supersonically expanding neutrino-driven wind collides with the slower earlier supernova ejecta. This implies that for some period the neutrinos pass two subsequent density discontinuities, giving rise to a ``double dip'' feature in the average neutrino energy as a function of time. We study this effect both analytically and numerically and find that it allows one to trace the positions of the forward and reverse shocks. We show that the energy dependent neutrino conversion probabilities allow one to detect oscillations even if the energy spectra of different neutrino flavors are the same as long as the fluxes differ. These features are observable in the \bar\nu_e signal for an inverted and in the \nu_e signal for a normal neutrino mass hierarchy, provided the 13-mixing angle is ``large'' (sin^2\theta_{13}\gg 10^{-5}).Comment: 23 pages, 27 eps figures (high resolution plots are available on request), JCAP style; v2: figure 8 extended, matches published versio