A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning

International audienceOperational real time flood forecasting systems generally require a hydrological model to run in real time as well as a series of hydro-informatics tools to transform the flood forecast into relatively simple and clear messages to the decision makers involved in flood defense. The scope of this paper is to set forth the possibility of providing flood warnings at given river sections based on the direct comparison of the quantitative precipitation forecast with critical rainfall threshold values, without the need of an on-line real time forecasting system. This approach leads to an extremely simplified alert system to be used by non technical stakeholders and could also be used to supplement the traditional flood forecasting systems in case of system failures. The critical rainfall threshold values, incorporating the soil moisture initial conditions, result from statistical analyses using long hydrological time series combined with a Bayesian utility function minimization. In the paper, results of an application of the proposed methodology to the Sieve river, a tributary of the Arno river in Italy, are given to exemplify its practical applicability

Flood forecasting using a fully distributed model: application of the TOPKAPI model to the Upper Xixian Catchment

International audienceTOPKAPI is a physically-based, fully distributed hydrological model with a simple and parsimonious parameterisation. The original TOPKAPI is structured around five modules that represent evapotranspiration, snowmelt, soil water, surface water and channel water, respectively. Percolation to deep soil layers was ignored in the old version of the TOPKAPI model since it was not important in the basins to which the model was originally applied. Based on published literature, this study developed a new version of the TOPKAPI model, in which the new modules of interception, infiltration, percolation, groundwater flow and lake/reservoir routing are included. This paper presents an application study that makes a first attempt to derive information from public domains through the internet on the topography, soil and land use types for a case study Chinese catchment - the Upper Xixian catchment in Huaihe River with an area of about 10000 km2, and apply a new version of TOPKAPI to the catchment for flood simulation. A model parameter value adjustment was performed using six months of the 1998 dataset. Calibration did not use a curve fitting process, but was chiefly based upon moderate variations of parameter values from those estimated on physical grounds, as is common in traditional calibration. The hydrometeorological dataset of 2002 was then used to validate the model, both against the outlet discharge as well as at an internal gauging station. Finally, to complete the model performance analysis, parameter uncertainty and its effects on predictive uncertainty were also assessed by estimating a posterior parameter probability density via Bayesian inference

Pressure-driven Demand and Leakage Simulation for Water Distribution Networks

Copyright © 2008 American Society of Civil EngineersIncreasingly, water loss via leakage is acknowledged as one of the main challenges facing water distribution system operations. The consideration of water loss over time, as systems age, physical networks grow, and consumption patterns mature, should form an integral part of effective asset management, rendering any simulation model capable of quantifying pressure-driven leakage indispensable. To this end, a novel steady-state network simulation model that fully integrates into a classical hydraulic representation, pressure-driven demand and leakage at the pipe level is developed and presented here. After presenting a brief literature review about leakage modeling, the importance of a more realistic simulation model allowing for leakage analysis is demonstrated. The algorithm is then tested from a numerical standpoint and subjected to a convergence analysis. These analyses are performed on a case study involving two networks derived from real systems. Experimentally observed convergence/error statistics demonstrate the high robustness of the proposed pressure-driven demand and leakage simulation model

Feasibility study to realize an anaerobc digester fed with vegetables matrices in central Italy

In the present paper we have analysed the possibility to realize an anaerobic digester in a bio-Energy Park located in Città della Pieve, a small town in Central Italy. The use of anaerobic digesters is quite common in Europe for reducing the environmental impact of manure in a co-digestion procedure with vegetables materials. In addition, for several areas of Central Italy there is the need to find alternative productions to improve farmer's incomes, as traditional cropping systems are loosing convenience. An interesting alternative seems to be cultivation of energy crops because of the favourable conditions of the electric energy market. We are suggesting a low input cropping system to be implemented in areas where low input food/feed crops are no more profitable. In particular our case-study is an example based on the use of a forage legume, alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), together with other crops, like sorghum, to realize small-size bio-digesters plants. Alfalfa: is a highly sustainable crop as it is able to fix nitrogen and therefore it does not require this fertilization with the consequence of avoiding underground water pollution. Moreover alfalfa residual products are nitrogen rich thus improving soil structure and fertility more than popular graminaceous energy crops such as corn. Beside, alfalfa mostly does not need irrigation in the typical Central Italy environment, all these traits make it one of the species with the lowest energy needs for growing. The aims of this feasibility study are: i) optimization of plant materials feeding the bio-digester, ii) typology of bio-digester, iii) size of bio-digester in relation with land availability for growing energetic cultures, iv) the utilization of bio-gas produced by bio-digester plant to produce electric and thermal energy using cogeneration engines, vi) disposal of waste-water produced according to regional and national laws. The final aim of this study is to verify the possibility to develop an alternative economical use of marginal soils in relatively dry areas of Central Italy that would be replicable in other European areas with a similar climatic situation

Follicular development, plasma Inhibin-A and Estradiol-17-beta concentrations in Buffalo cows during different treatment schedules for MOET programs

Buffalo cows were submitted to three superovulatory treatments. T1 (n = 7): PRID for 10 days (d0-d9) plus decreasing doses of 500 IU FSH/LH (12 h-intervals d7‑d10); T2 (n = 8): PRID for 11 d (d0-d10) plus 2000 IU PMSG at d7; T3 (n = 9): PRID for 11 d plus 2000 IU PMSG at d7 and decreasing doses of 175 IU FSH/LH (12 h-intervals d10‑ d11). Overall plasma inhibin‑A (In-A) concentrations correlated with large follicles (LF, diameter >6mm, R=0.83, P10 mm at d12- 13 (T1=5.0+/-1.4, T2=1.2+/-0.9, T3=8.3+/-2.3). In-A concentrations significantly rised at d11-13 of T1 and T3. In-A seems a good indicator of the follicular development during superovulation in buffalo cows, while E2 is not. Furthermore T3 was followed by better ovarian follicular responses

A combined Pòlya process and mixture distribution approach to rainfall modelling

International audienceA new probabilistic interpretation of at site rainfall sequences is introduced for the development of a stochastic model of rain. The model, is divided into two sub models; the first one describing the total number of rainfall spells within a window of time is described by a Pòlya process in order to reproduce better the variable probability of occurrence of rainfall during storm events (due to the presence of different numbers of rainfall cells); the second sub model, conditional on the first one, describes the total quantity of rainfall in the time window, given a number of rainfall spells. The probabilistic rainfall model, which has shown interesting properties in reproducing the probability distribution of observed data at time scales ranging from one hour to twenty-four hours, may be the basis for a number of applications which include the development of a conditional stochastic generator of rain, within the frame of real-time flood forecasting, and the derivation of a probabilistic distribution of rainfall extremes at the various time scales

Macro Minerals and Trace Elements in Milk of Dairy Buffaloes and Cows Reared in Mediterranean Areas

Aim of this study was to evaluate the differences in Ca, P, K, Na, Mg, Zn, Fe, Cu, Mn, Se, Mo, Co, Li, B, Ti, Rb, and Sr concentrations in milk from buffaloes and cows reared in the same farm in Mediterranean areas and fed diets including the same ingredients. Individual milk samples were obtained from 32 Mediterranean buffaloes and 29 Italian Friesian cows and samples of milk, dietary ingredients and drinking water were analyzed for the investigated chemical elements by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Data about milk element concentrations were processed by one-way analysis of variance. Buffalo milk contains higher concentrations of Ca, P, Mg, Zn, Fe, Cu, B, Ti, and Sr, and lower concentrations of K, Na, Mo, Li, and Rb compared to cow milk, whereas milk from both species contains similar concentrations of Mn, Se, and Co. The concentrations of the investigated elements in the diet were similar for both species and the differences observed between buffalo and cow milk were not dependent on environmental factors

Venous wall ultrastructure in generalized venomegaly.

The ultrastructure of thè v. colica sinistra in a case of generalized vasomegaìy in man was examined. Elastic material was found in three forms: as a lightly osmiophii amorphous material bordering on myocytes, as a highly osmiophii elastic membrana, and as highly osmiophii slim elastic fibres of different orientation in thè tunica media and adventitia. The slightly osmiophii elastic material is assumed to be newly formed. by pinocytotic activity of thè myocytes. The highly osmiophii elastic material indicatss its impairment. No typical atherosclerotic changes were found in thè examined vein. Based on a comparison with previous findings in thè case of vasomegaìy of thè a. mesenterica inferior, thè authors conclude that thè venomegaly phenomenon is connected with degenerative changes in thè elastic material of thè vessel wall

Dietary integration with oregano (Origanum vulgare L.) essential oil improves growth rate and oxidative status in outdoor, but not indoor, reared pigs

The effects of a diet supplemented with oregano essential oil on performance, oxidative status, pork quality traits and sensorial properties were evaluated. In two studies, 72 pigs in indoor or outdoor conditions were assigned to either a control diet or an identical diet supplemented with 0.2% oregano essential oil. Pigs reared outdoor showed lower live weight, average daily gain and average gain:feed ratio compared to indoor pigs. The oregano supplementation improved the growth performance of the outdoor‐ but not the indoor‐reared animals. The serum oxidative status was influenced by the diet. A higher oxidative stability was observed in the oregano‐supplemented groups. As for the rearing conditions, the data suggest that after an initial adapting period, the free‐range farming systems could be better tolerated by pigs. Meat derived from pigs reared outdoor showed higher pH and a* values. Lightness was influenced by both the diet and the rearing conditions. The control group reared indoor showed shear force values higher than both supplemented groups, while no differences were detected with the control group reared outdoor. In the consumer test performed under blind conditions, the oregano groups achieved higher consistency scores compared with the control. Under informed conditions, the meat derived from the oregano‐supplemented pigs reared outdoor received the highest scores for consistency and overall liking regardless of the rearing system. The same result for the overall liking score was obtained in the expectation test. The data obtained showed that dietary oregano essential oil can be effective in reducing performance losses due to the outdoor‐rearing system, increasing the oxidative status of the animal and oxidative stability of the meat, without modifying the meat quality traits and improving consumer perceptions of the meat quality