The relationship between personality traits, self-report conscientiousness the Conscientiousness Index and academic performance in undergraduate medical students

Personality traits are now accepted as being important factors within the workplace and medical education. Both cognitive ability and conscientiousness have been shown as important predictors of work-related performance within organisational research1. Conscientiousness is in an important trait within any career, but in particular within medicine where a lack of diligence can be disastrous and potentially cost lives. Within undergraduate students, objective measurement of conscientiousness is important since conscientious students are more likely to set and achieve goals. Durham University utilises the Conscientiousness Index (CI) as an objective scalar measure of conscientiousness. The CI has previously been validated against staff and peer views of student professionalism4,5. This study aimed to investigate the relationships between the Big Five personality domains (including the 6 sub-facets of conscientiousness), Conscientiousness Index scores and academic performance in medical students in order to determine whether self-report conscientiousness correlates with the Conscientiousness Index and whether a relationship with academic performance exists

One-year mortality after hospital admission as an indicator of palliative care need: A retrospective cohort study

Background. Globally there is increasing awareness of the need for end-of-life care and palliative care in hospitalised patients who are in their final year of life. Limited data are available on palliative care requirements in low- and middle-income countries, hindering the design and implementation of effective policies and health services for these patients.Objectives. To determine the proportion of patients who die within 1 year of their date of admission to public hospitals in South Africa (SA), as a proxy for palliative care need in SA.Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study using record linkage of admission and mortality data. The setting was 46 acute-care public hospitals in Western Cape Province, SA.Results. Of 10 761 patients (median (interquartile range (IQR)) age 44 (31 - 60) years) admitted to the 46 hospitals over a 2-week period in March 2012, 1 570 (14.6%) died within 1 year, the majority within the first 3 months. Mortality rose steeply with age. The median (IQR) age of death was 57.5 (45 - 70) years. A greater proportion of patients admitted to medical beds died within 1 year (21.3%) compared with those admitted to surgical beds (7.7%).Conclusions. Despite a median age <60 years at admission, a substantial percentage of patients admitted to public sector hospitals in SA are in the final year of their lives. This finding should be seen in the context of SA’s high communicable and non-communicable disease burden and resource-limited public health system, and highlights the need for policy development, planning and implementation of end-of-life and palliative care strategies for hospitals and patients.

Predictive validity of A-level grades and teacher-predicted grades in UK medical school applicants: a retrospective analysis of administrative data in a time of COVID-19

OBJECTIVES: To compare in UK medical students the predictive validity of attained A-level grades and teacher-predicted A levels for undergraduate and postgraduate outcomes. Teacher-predicted A-level grades are a plausible proxy for the teacher-estimated grades that replaced UK examinations in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study also models the likely future consequences for UK medical schools of replacing public A-level examination grades with teacher-predicted grades. DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study using UK Medical Education Database data. SETTING: UK medical education and training. PARTICIPANTS: Dataset 1: 81 202 medical school applicants in 2010–2018 with predicted and attained A-level grades. Dataset 2: 22 150 18-year-old medical school applicants in 2010–2014 with predicted and attained A-level grades, of whom 12 600 had medical school assessment outcomes and 1340 had postgraduate outcomes available. OUTCOME MEASURES: Undergraduate and postgraduate medical examination results in relation to attained and teacher-predicted A-level results. RESULTS: Dataset 1: teacher-predicted grades were accurate for 48.8% of A levels, overpredicted in 44.7% of cases and underpredicted in 6.5% of cases. Dataset 2: undergraduate and postgraduate outcomes correlated significantly better with attained than with teacher-predicted A-level grades. Modelling suggests that using teacher-estimated grades instead of attained grades will mean that 2020 entrants are more likely to underattain compared with previous years, 13% more gaining the equivalent of the lowest performance decile and 16% fewer reaching the equivalent of the current top decile, with knock-on effects for postgraduate training. CONCLUSIONS: The replacement of attained A-level examination grades with teacher-estimated grades as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic may result in 2020 medical school entrants having somewhat lower academic performance compared with previous years. Medical schools may need to consider additional teaching for entrants who are struggling or who might need extra support for missed aspects of A-level teaching

Would Functional Agricultural Foods Improve Human Health?

Concern over diet-health relationships has moved to the forefront of public health concerns in the UK and much of the developed world. It has been estimated, for example, that obesity costs the UK National Health Service up to £6b per year (Rayner and Scarborough, 2005), but if all consumers were to follow recommended healthy eating guidelines there would be major implications for food consumption, land use and international trade (Srinivasan et al, 2006). This is unlikely to happen, at least in the short term, but it is realistic to anticipate some dietary adjustment toward the recommendations, resulting in an improvement in diet quality (Mazzocchi et al, 2007). Although consumers are reluctant to make major changes to their diets, they may be prepared to substitute existing foods for healthier alternatives. Three of the most prominent nutritional recommendations are to consume more fruit and vegetables, which contain phytochemicals beneficial to health, reduce consumption of saturated fatty acids (SFA) and increase intake of long-chain n-3 fatty acids (FA). In the first case, consumption of fruit and vegetables has been stable at around three 80 g portions per person per day according to the Health Survey for England. It is estimated that 42,200 deaths per year could be avoided in England and 411,000 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) could be saved if fruit and vegetable consumption were increased to the recommended 5 portions per day (Ofcom 2006). As well as continuing to encourage people to eat more, it could be desirable to ‘intensify’ the beneficial phytochemical content of existing fruit and vegetables.Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Industrial Organization,

A health impact assessment of the UK soft drinks industry levy: a comparative risk assessment modelling study

Background In March, 2016, the UK government proposed a tiered levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs; high, moderate, and no tax for drinks with >8g, 5g to 8g, and <5g sugar per 100ml). We estimate the effect of possible industry responses to the levy on obesity, diabetes, and dental caries. Methods We modelled three possible industry responses: (1) reformulation to reduce sugar concentration, (2) increasing product price, and (3) changing the market share of high-, mid-, and low-sugar drinks. For each response, we defined a better and worse case health scenario. We developed a comparative risk assessment model to estimate the UK health impact of each scenario. Findings The best modelled scenario for health is SSB reformulation, resulting in 144,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 5,100 to 306,700) fewer adults and children with obesity in the UK, 19,000 (6,900 to 32,700) fewer incident cases of diabetes per year, and 269,000 (82,200 to 470,900) fewer decayed, missing, or filled teeth annually. Increasing the price of SSBs and changes to market share to increase the proportion of low-sugar drinks sold would also result in population health benefits, but to a lesser extent. The greatest benefit for obesity and oral health would be among individuals under 18 years, with people over 65 years experiencing the largest absolute decreases in diabetes incidence. Interpretation The health impact of the soft drink levy is dependent on its implementation by industry. There is uncertainty as to how industry will react and in the estimation of health outcomes. Health gains could be maximised by significant product reformulation with additional benefits possible if the levy is passed onto purchasers through raising the price of high- and mid-sugar drinks, and through activities to increase the market share of low-sugar products.RT and AK have previously done work on sugar-sweetened beverage taxes funded by the Union of European Soft Drinks Associations. MR is chair of Sustain and the Children's Food Campaign, which have campaigned for sugar drink taxes in the UK. MR is funded by the British Heart Foundation, grant number 006/PSS/CORE/2016/OXFORD. ADMB and OTM are members of the Faculty of Public Health, which has a position statement supporting sugary drink taxes. ADMB is funded by the Wellcome Trust, grant number 102730/Z/13/Z. OTM is a member of the UK Health Forum, which has also supported a UK sugar drinks tax. OTM is supported by a Wellcome Trust Clinical Doctoral Fellowship. SAJ was the independent Chair of the Department of Health Public Health Responsibility Deal Food Network from 2010 to 2015. SAJ is funded by the National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care Oxford. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, National Institute for Health Research, or the Department of Health. PS is funded by the British Heart Foundation, grant number FS/15/34/31656. TB is funded the Health Research Council of New Zealand (16/443). AE declares no competing interests

Predicting need for hospital admission in patients with traumatic brain injury or skull fractures identified on CT imaging : a machine learning approach

Background: Patients with mild traumatic brain injury on CT scan are routinely admitted for inpatient observation. Only a small proportion of patients require clinical intervention. We recently developed a decision rule using traditional statistical techniques that found neurologically intact patients with isolated simple skull fractures or single bleeds <5 mm with no preinjury antiplatelet or anticoagulant use may be safely discharged from the emergency department. The decision rule achieved a sensitivity of 99.5% (95% CI 98.1% to 99.9%) and specificity of 7.4% (95% CI 6.0% to 9.1%) to clinical deterioration. We aimed to transparently report a machine learning approach to assess if predictive accuracy could be improved. Methods: We used data from the same retrospective cohort of 1699 initial Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) 13–15 patients with injuries identified by CT who presented to three English Major Trauma Centres between 2010 and 2017 as in our original study. We assessed the ability of machine learning to predict the same composite outcome measure of deterioration (indicating need for hospital admission). Predictive models were built using gradient boosted decision trees which consisted of an ensemble of decision trees to optimise model performance. Results: The final algorithm reported a mean positive predictive value of 29%, mean negative predictive value of 94%, mean area under the curve (C-statistic) of 0.75, mean sensitivity of 99% and mean specificity of 7%. As with logistic regression, GCS, severity and number of brain injuries were found to be important predictors of deterioration. Conclusion: We found no clear advantages over the traditional prediction methods, although the models were, effectively, developed using a smaller data set, due to the need to divide it into training, calibration and validation sets. Future research should focus on developing models that provide clear advantages over existing classical techniques in predicting outcomes in this population

The improving outcomes in intermittent exotropia study: outcomes at 2 years after diagnosis in an observational cohort

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate current patterns of management and outcomes of intermittent distance exotropia [X(T)] in the UK. Methods: This was an observational cohort study which recruited 460 children aged < 12 years with previously untreated X(T). Eligible subjects were enrolled from 26 UK hospital ophthalmology clinics between May 2005 and December 2006. Over a 2-year period of follow-up, clinical data were prospectively recorded at standard intervals from enrolment. Data collected included angle, near stereoacuity, visual acuity, control of X(T) measured with the Newcastle Control Score (NCS), and treatment. The main outcome measures were change in clinical outcomes (angle, stereoacuity, visual acuity and NCS) in treated and untreated X(T), 2 years from enrolment (or, where applicable, 6 months after surgery). Change over time was tested using the chi-square test for categorical, Wilcoxon test for non-parametric and paired-samples t-test for parametric data. Results: At follow-up, data were available for 371 children (81% of the original cohort). Of these: 53% (195) had no treatment; 17% (63) had treatment for reduced visual acuity only (pure refractive error and amblyopia); 13% (50) had non surgical treatment for control (spectacle lenses, occlusion, prisms, exercises) and 17% (63) had surgery. Only 0.5% (2/371) children developed constant exotropia. The surgically treated group was the only group with clinically significant improvements in angle or NCS. However, 8% (5) of those treated surgically required second procedures for overcorrection within 6 months of the initial procedure and at 6-month follow-up 21% (13) were overcorrected. Conclusions: Many children in the UK with X(T) receive active monitoring only. Deterioration to constant exotropia, with or without treatment, is rare. Surgery appears effective in improving angle of X(T) and NCS, but rates of overcorrection are high

Молдавская идентичность в начале XXI в.: реалии и перспективы

Территория между Прутом и Днестром, названная позже Бессарабией, была присоединена к Российской империи в результате русско-турецкой войны 1806-1812 гг. согласно Бухарестскому мирному договору (16(28) мая 1812 г.)

Predictive validity of the UK clinical aptitude test in the final years of medical school:a prospective cohort study

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