Probabilistic Model Counting with Short XORs

The idea of counting the number of satisfying truth assignments (models) of a formula by adding random parity constraints can be traced back to the seminal work of Valiant and Vazirani, showing that NP is as easy as detecting unique solutions. While theoretically sound, the random parity constraints in that construction have the following drawback: each constraint, on average, involves half of all variables. As a result, the branching factor associated with searching for models that also satisfy the parity constraints quickly gets out of hand. In this work we prove that one can work with much shorter parity constraints and still get rigorous mathematical guarantees, especially when the number of models is large so that many constraints need to be added. Our work is based on the realization that the essential feature for random systems of parity constraints to be useful in probabilistic model counting is that the geometry of their set of solutions resembles an error-correcting code.Comment: To appear in SAT 1

The curatorial consequences of being moved, moveable or portable: the case of carved stones

It matters whether a carved stone is moved, moveable or portable. This influences perceptions of significance and of form and nature – is it a monument or an artefact? This duality may in turn affect understanding and appreciation of the resource. It has implications for how and if carved stones can be legally protected, who owns them, where and how they are administered, and by whom. The complexities of the legislation mean that all too often this is also a grey area. This paper explores these curatorial issues and their impact

Parameterized Compilation Lower Bounds for Restricted CNF-formulas

We show unconditional parameterized lower bounds in the area of knowledge compilation, more specifically on the size of circuits in decomposable negation normal form (DNNF) that encode CNF-formulas restricted by several graph width measures. In particular, we show that - there are CNF formulas of size $n$ and modular incidence treewidth $k$ whose smallest DNNF-encoding has size $n^{\Omega(k)}$, and - there are CNF formulas of size $n$ and incidence neighborhood diversity $k$ whose smallest DNNF-encoding has size $n^{\Omega(\sqrt{k})}$. These results complement recent upper bounds for compiling CNF into DNNF and strengthen---quantitatively and qualitatively---known conditional low\-er bounds for cliquewidth. Moreover, they show that, unlike for many graph problems, the parameters considered here behave significantly differently from treewidth

Bit-Vector Model Counting using Statistical Estimation

Approximate model counting for bit-vector SMT formulas (generalizing \#SAT) has many applications such as probabilistic inference and quantitative information-flow security, but it is computationally difficult. Adding random parity constraints (XOR streamlining) and then checking satisfiability is an effective approximation technique, but it requires a prior hypothesis about the model count to produce useful results. We propose an approach inspired by statistical estimation to continually refine a probabilistic estimate of the model count for a formula, so that each XOR-streamlined query yields as much information as possible. We implement this approach, with an approximate probability model, as a wrapper around an off-the-shelf SMT solver or SAT solver. Experimental results show that the implementation is faster than the most similar previous approaches which used simpler refinement strategies. The technique also lets us model count formulas over floating-point constraints, which we demonstrate with an application to a vulnerability in differential privacy mechanisms

The Ministry of Works and the Development of Souvenir Guides from 1955

The first formal guidebooks for historic sites placed in state guardianship in the United Kingdom appeared in 1917. There was an expansion of the series in the 1930s and 1950s. However, from the late 1950s the Ministry of Works, and later the Ministry of Public Buildings and Works, started to produce an additional series of illustrated souvenir guides. One distinct group covered Royal Palaces: the Tower of London, Hampton Court Palace, Queen Victoria's residence of Osborne House on the Isle of Wight, and Holyroodhouse in Edin-burgh. This was followed by guides for archaeological sites such as Stone-henge and Avebury, the Neolithic flint mines at Grime's Graves, the Roman villa at Lullingstone, and Hadrian's Wall. In 1961, a series of guides, with covers designed by Kyffin Williams, was produced for the English castles constructed in North Wales. These illustrated guides, some with colour, prepared the way for the fully designed guides now produced by English Heritage, Cadw, and Historic Environment Scotland

A Bayesian approach to modelling heterogeneous calcium responses in cell populations

Calcium responses have been observed as spikes of the whole-cell calcium concentration in numerous cell types and are essential for translating extracellular stimuli into cellular responses. While there are several suggestions for how this encoding is achieved, we still lack a comprehensive theory. To achieve this goal it is necessary to reliably predict the temporal evolution of calcium spike sequences for a given stimulus. Here, we propose a modelling framework that allows us to quantitatively describe the timing of calcium spikes. Using a Bayesian approach, we show that Gaussian processes model calcium spike rates with high fidelity and perform better than standard tools such as peri-stimulus time histograms and kernel smoothing. We employ our modelling concept to analyse calcium spike sequences from dynamically-stimulated HEK293T cells. Under these conditions, different cells often experience diverse stimuli time courses, which is a situation likely to occur in vivo. This single cell variability and the concomitant small number of calcium spikes per cell pose a significant modelling challenge, but we demonstrate that Gaussian processes can successfully describe calcium spike rates in these circumstances. Our results therefore pave the way towards a statistical description of heterogeneous calcium oscillations in a dynamic environmen

Evaluation of a nudge intervention providing simple feedback to clinicians of the consequence of radiation exposure on demand for computed tomography: a controlled study

Computerised tomography (CT) is readily available in developed countries. As one of the side-effects includes an increased risk of cancer, interventions that may encourage more judicious use of CT scans are important. Behavioural economics theory includes the use of nudges that aim to help more informed decisions to be made, although these have been rarely used in hospitals to date. We aimed to evaluate the impact of a simple educational message appended to the CT scan report on subsequent numbers of CT scans completed using a controlled interrupted time series design based in two teaching hospitals in X. The intervention was the addition of a non-directional educational message on the risk of ionising radiation to all CT scan reports. There was a statistically significant reduction in the number of CT scans requested in the intervention hospital compared to the control hospital (-4.6%, 95% confidence intervals -7.4 to -1.7, p = 0.002) in the 12 months after the intervention was implemented. We conclude that a simple, non-directional nudge intervention has the capacity to modify clinician use of CT scans. This approach is cheap, and has potential in helping support doctors make informed decisions

Disentangling astroglial physiology with a realistic cell model in silico

Electrically non-excitable astroglia take up neurotransmitters, buffer extracellular K+ and generate Ca2+ signals that release molecular regulators of neural circuitry. The underlying machinery remains enigmatic, mainly because the sponge-like astrocyte morphology has been difficult to access experimentally or explore theoretically. Here, we systematically incorporate multi-scale, tri-dimensional astroglial architecture into a realistic multi-compartmental cell model, which we constrain by empirical tests and integrate into the NEURON computational biophysical environment. This approach is implemented as a flexible astrocyte-model builder ASTRO. As a proof-of-concept, we explore an in silico astrocyte to evaluate basic cell physiology features inaccessible experimentally. Our simulations suggest that currents generated by glutamate transporters or K+ channels have negligible distant effects on membrane voltage and that individual astrocytes can successfully handle extracellular K+ hotspots. We show how intracellular Ca2+ buffers affect Ca2+ waves and why the classical Ca2+ sparks-and-puffs mechanism is theoretically compatible with common readouts of astroglial Ca2+ imaging

Study protocol: The development of a pilot study employing a randomised controlled design to investigate the feasibility and effects of a peer support program following discharge from a specialist first-episode psychosis treatment centre

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Young people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) are at risk of a range of negative outcomes. Specialist FEP services have been developed to provide comprehensive, multi-disciplinary treatment. However, these services are often available for a restricted period and the services that young people may be transferred to are less comprehensive. This represents a risk of drop out from treatment services in a group already considered to be at risk of disengagement. Peer support groups have been shown to improve social relationships among people with psychosis however individual peer support programs have not been tested on young people with first-episode psychosis; nor have they been tested at the point of discharge from services.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>The study is an 18-month randomised controlled trial being conducted at Orygen Youth Health Research Centre in Melbourne, Australia. The aim of the study is to test the feasibility and effects of a 6-month peer support intervention delivered to young people with FEP over the period of discharge. Participants are young people aged 15-24 who are being discharged from a specialist first-episode psychosis treatment centre. There is a 6-month recruitment period. The intervention comprises two hours of contact per fortnight during which peer support workers can assist participants to engage with their new services, or other social and community activities. Participants will be assessed at baseline and post intervention (6 months).</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This paper describes the development of a randomised-controlled trial which aims to pilot a peer support program among young people who are being discharged from a specialist FEP treatment centre. If effective, the intervention could lead to benefits not only for participants over the discharge period, but for peer support workers as well.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>The study was registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry; number: ACTRN12610000241033.</p

Heritage, endangerment and participation: alternative futures in the Lake District

Cultural heritage policy in the UK puts a high value on participation, and heritage agencies often encourage that participation through appealing to the endangered status of the landscapes, sites and monuments in their care. Participation takes many forms, and can involve influencing policy, contributing to cultural outputs and enjoying cultural activities. This paper critically examines the literature and discourse underpinning the endangerment/participation axis and presents a case study of heritage participation in the English Lake District. In order to ground critique in empirical investigation, the case study focusses on the practice of a particular fell shepherd, whose participation in heritage is not motivated by endangerment. The paper then explores the implications of this research for wider thinking about heritage and public life, arguing for the importance of moving beyond endangerment narratives for the creation of resilient heritage futures