Multiple mechanisms generate Lorentzian and 1/f a power spectra in daily stream-flow time series

a b s t r a c t Power-law scaling is an ubiquitous feature of the power spectrum of streamflow on the daily to monthly timescales where the spectrum is most strongly affected by hydrologic catchment-scale processes. Numerous mechanistic explanations for the emergence of this power-law scaling have been proposed. This study employs empirical spectra obtained for eight river basins in the South Eastern US and synthetic spectra generated from a range of proposed mechanisms to explore these explanations. The empirical analysis suggested that streamflow spectra were characterized by multiple power-law scaling regimes with high-frequency exponents a in the range À1 to À5. In the studied basins, a tended to increase with drainage area. The power-law generating mechanisms analyzed included linear and nonlinear catchment water balance arguments, power-law recession behavior, autonomous and non-autonomous responses of channel hydraulics and the n-fold convolution of linear reservoirs underpinning Dooge or Nash hydrographs. Of these mechanisms, only n-fold convolutions with n = 2 or 3 generated power spectra with features that were consistent with the empirical cases. If the effects of daily streamflow sampling on truncating power spectra were considered, then the trends in a with drainage area were also consistent with this mechanism. Generalizing the linear convolution approach to a network of reservoirs with randomly distributed parameters preserved the features of the power spectrum and maintained consistency with empirical spectra

Multiple mechanisms generate Lorentzian and 1/f a power spectra in daily stream-flow time series

a b s t r a c t Power-law scaling is an ubiquitous feature of the power spectrum of streamflow on the daily to monthly timescales where the spectrum is most strongly affected by hydrologic catchment-scale processes. Numerous mechanistic explanations for the emergence of this power-law scaling have been proposed. This study employs empirical spectra obtained for eight river basins in the South Eastern US and synthetic spectra generated from a range of proposed mechanisms to explore these explanations. The empirical analysis suggested that streamflow spectra were characterized by multiple power-law scaling regimes with high-frequency exponents a in the range À1 to À5. In the studied basins, a tended to increase with drainage area. The power-law generating mechanisms analyzed included linear and nonlinear catchment water balance arguments, power-law recession behavior, autonomous and non-autonomous responses of channel hydraulics and the n-fold convolution of linear reservoirs underpinning Dooge or Nash hydrographs. Of these mechanisms, only n-fold convolutions with n = 2 or 3 generated power spectra with features that were consistent with the empirical cases. If the effects of daily streamflow sampling on truncating power spectra were considered, then the trends in a with drainage area were also consistent with this mechanism. Generalizing the linear convolution approach to a network of reservoirs with randomly distributed parameters preserved the features of the power spectrum and maintained consistency with empirical spectra

High Time for Conservation: Adding the Environment to the Debate on Marijuana Liberalization

The liberalization of marijuana policies, including the legalization of medical and recreational marijuana, is sweeping the United States and other countries. Marijuana cultivation can have significant negative collateral effects on the environment that are often unknown or overlooked. Focusing on the state of California, where by some estimates 60% -- 70% of the marijuana consumed in the United States is grown, we argue that (a) the environmental harm caused by marijuana cultivation merits a direct policy response, (b) current approaches to governing the environmental effects are inadequate, and (c) neglecting discussion of the environmental impacts of cultivation when shaping future marijuana use and possession policies represents a missed opportunity to reduce, regulate, and mitigate environmental harm

The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world

Dry season streamflow persistence in seasonal climates

Seasonally dry ecosystems exhibit periods of high water availability followed by extended intervals during which rainfall is negligible and streamflows decline. Eventually, such declining flows will fall below the minimum values required to support ecosystem functions or services. The time at which dry season flows drop below these minimum values (Q∗), relative to the start of the dry season, is termed the "persistence time" (). The persistence time determines how long seasonal streams can support various human or ecological functions during the dry season. In this study, we extended recent work in the stochastic hydrology of seasonally dry climates to develop an analytical model for the probability distribution function (PDF) of the persistence time. The proposed model accurately captures the mean of the persistence time distribution, but underestimates its variance. We demonstrate that this underestimation arises in part due to correlation between the parameters used to describe the dry season recession, but that this correlation can be removed by rescaling the flow variables. The mean persistence time predictions form one example of the broader class of streamflow statistics known as crossing properties, which could feasibly be combined with simple ecological models to form a basis for rapid risk assessment under different climate or management scenarios

The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world

Natural and cultural heritage in mountain landscapes: towards an integrated valuation

Mountain areas of Europe have been managed by humans for a long time, leading to a prevalence of semi-natural habitats in mountain landscapes today. These landscapes contain both natural and cultural heritage; however, natural and cultural heritage are rarely considered together when valuing landscapes and developing management plans in protected areas. Here we present a case study of seven protected areas in the mountains of Great Britain and Norway. We take a long-term perspective on landscape and land-use change and propose an integrated model of landscape valuation on the basis of combined natural and cultural heritage. Our model plots indicators of natural and cultural heritage along a gradient of land-use intensity, allowing simultaneous assessment and highlighting how valuation depends on what type of heritage is considered. We show that while contemporary land-use changes follow similar trajectories in Norway and Britain, different land-use histories mean that the loss of heritage differs between the regions. The model presented here thus allows for the consolidation of valuation based on both cultural and natural heritage in landscapes.publishedVersio

Breast cancer risk reduction:is it feasible to initiate a randomised controlled trial of a lifestyle intervention programme (ActWell) within a national breast screening programme?

BackgroundBreast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the second cause of cancer deaths amongst women in the UK. The incidence of the disease is increasing and is highest in women from least deprived areas. It is estimated that around 42% of the disease in post-menopausal women could be prevented by increased physical activity and reductions in alcohol intake and body fatness. Breast cancer control endeavours focus on national screening programmes but these do not include communications or interventions for risk reductionThis study aimed to assess the feasibility of delivery, indicative effects and acceptability of a lifestyle intervention programme initiated within the NHS Scottish Breast Screening Programme (NHSSBSP).MethodsA 1:1 randomised controlled trial (RCT) of the 3 month ActWell programme (focussing on body weight, physical activity and alcohol) versus usual care conducted in two NHSSBSP sites between June 2013 and January 2014. Feasibility assessments included recruitment, retention, and fidelity to protocol. Indicative outcomes were measured at baseline and 3 month follow-up (body weight, waist circumference, eating and alcohol habits and physical activity. At study end, a questionnaire assessed participant satisfaction and qualitative interviews elicited women¿s, coaches and radiographers¿ experiences. Statistical analysis used Chi squared tests for comparisons in proportions and paired t tests for comparisons of means. Linear regression analyses were performed, adjusted for baseline values, with group allocation as a fixed effectResultsA pre-set recruitment target of 80 women was achieved within 12 weeks and 65 (81%) participants (29 intervention, 36 control) completed 3 month assessments. Mean age was 58¿±¿5.6 years, mean BMI was 29.2¿±¿7.0 kg/m2 and many (44%) reported a family history of breast cancer.The primary analysis (baseline body weight adjusted) showed a significant between group difference favouring the intervention group of 2.04 kg (95%CI ¿3.24 kg to ¿0.85 kg). Significant, favourable between group differences were also detected for BMI, waist circumference, physical activity and sitting time. Women rated the programme highly and 70% said they would recommend it to others.ConclusionsRecruitment, retention, indicative results and participant acceptability support the development of a definitive RCT to measure long term effects.Trial registrationThe trial was registered with Current Controlled Trials (ISRCTN56223933)

Climatic, Ecophysiological, and Phenological Controls on Plant Ecohydrological Strategies in Seasonally Dry Ecosystems

Large areas in the tropics and at mid-latitudes experience pronounced seasonality and inter-annual variability in rainfall and hence water availability. Despite the importance of these seasonally dry ecosystems (SDEs) for the global carbon cycling and in providing ecosystem services, a unifying ecohydrological framework to interpret the effects of climatic variability on SDEs is still lacking. A synthesis of existing data about plant functional adaptations in SDEs, covering some 400 species, shows that leaf phenological variations, rather than physiological traits, provide the dominant control on plant-water-carbon interactions. Motivated by this result, the combined implications of leaf phenology and climatic variability on plant water use strategies are here explored with a minimalist model of the coupled soil water and plant carbon balances. The analyses are extended to five locations with different hydroclimatic forcing, spanning seasonally dry tropical climates (without temperature seasonality) and Mediterranean climates (exhibiting out of phase seasonal patterns of rainfall and temperature). The most beneficial leaf phenology in terms of carbon uptake depends on the climatic regime: evergreen species are favoured by short dry seasons or access to persistent water stores, whereas high inter-annual variability of rainy season duration favours the coexistence of multiple drought-deciduous phenological strategies. We conclude that drought-deciduousness may provide a competitive advantage in face of predicted declines in rainfall totals, while reduced seasonality and access to deep water stores may favour evergreen species. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA