09181 Abstracts Collection -- Sampling-based Optimization in the Presence of Uncertainty

This Dagstuhl seminar brought together researchers from statistical ranking and selection; experimental design and response-surface modeling; stochastic programming; approximate dynamic programming; optimal learning; and the design and analysis of computer experiments with the goal of attaining a much better mutual understanding of the commonalities and differences of the various approaches to sampling-based optimization, and to take first steps toward an overarching theory, encompassing many of the topics above

A strategy for determining arterial blood gases on the summit of Mt. Everest

BACKGROUND: Climbers on the summit of Mt. Everest are exposed to extreme hypoxia, and the physiological implications are of great interest. Inferences have been made from alveolar gas samples collected on the summit, but arterial blood samples would give critical information. We propose a plan to insert an arterial catheter at an altitude of 8000 m, take blood samples above this using an automatic sampler, store the samples in glass syringes in an ice-water slurry, and analyze them lower on the mountain 4 to 6 hours later. RESULTS: A preliminary design of the automatic sampler was successfully tested at the White Mountain Research Station (altitude 3800 m – 4300 m). To determine how much the blood gases changed over a long period, rabbit blood was tonometered to give a gas composition close to that expected on the summit (PO(2 )4.0 kPa (30 mmHg), PCO(2 )1.3 kPa (10 mmHg), pH 7.7) and the blood gases were measured every 2 hours for 8 hours both at sea level and 3800 m. The mean changes were PO(2 )+0.3 to +0.4 kPa (+2 to +3 mmHg), PCO(2 )0 to +0.13 kPa (+1 mmHg), pH -0.02 to -0.04, base excess -0.7 to -1.2 mM. In practice the delay before analysis should not exceed 4 to 6 hours. The small paradoxical rise in PO(2 )is presumably caused mainly by contamination of the blood with air. CONCLUSION: We conclude that automatic arterial blood sampling at high altitude is technically feasible and that the changes in the blood gases over a period of several hours are acceptably small

Home Ranges of Rusty Blackbirds Breeding in Wetlands: How Much Would Buffers from Timber Harvest Protect Habitat?

We calculated the home ranges and core areas of 13 adult Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolinus) in Maine to determine (1) the area requirements of breeding adults, (2) whether area requirements of the sexes and of colonial and noncolonial individuals differ, and (3) the proportion of the home range and core area that would be protected by a buffer of no logging of 50–100 m around occupied wetlands. Mean home ranges (37.5 ± 12.6 ha) and core areas (11.1 ± 2.8 ha) were large in comparison to those of other breeding icterids, and adults often foraged in multiple unconnected wetlands. Rusty Blackbirds that were part of a loose colony had home ranges and core areas three times larger than those of pairs that nested solitarily, which we speculate may be due to adults following one other to feed on unpredictable emergences of aquatic insects. Home ranges and core areas included a surprisingly small amount of wetland habitat, only 12% and 19% respectively, but adults often foraged in small wet patches (\u3c16 m2) in otherwise upland habitat. The 75-m buffers around wetlands that we recommended in a concurrent study may help protect the Rusty Blackbird\u27s nesting habitat, but such buffers contained less than half the average home range, suggesting that they may be of only limited benefit as a conservation strategy for protecting foraging habitat

Habitat occupancy of Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolinus) breeding in northern New England, USA

The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), an uncommon songbird often associated with northern coniferous wetlands, has experienced a precipitous population decline since at least the early 20th century. Here, we provide the first analysis of breeding-habitat occupancy at the wetland scale and make recommendations for streamlined monitoring. We modeled occupancy and detectability as a function of site (i.e. habitat-based) and sampling (i.e. visit-specific) variables collected at 546 wetlands in northern New England, USA. Wetland occupancy (mean 6 SE ¼ 0.07 6 0.02 in randomly selected wetlands, and 0.12 6 0.02 in all wetlands surveyed) was best explained by variables describing Rusty Blackbird foraging habitat (PUDDLES: a proxy for shallow water), nesting habitat (coniferous adjacent uplands), and evidence of beavers. In contrast to Rusty Blackbirds’ selection of pole-stage conifers at the nest-site scale, stand age did not affect occupancy at the wetland scale. It appears that most wetlands in northern coniferous forest landscapes, regardless of stand age, offer dense conifer patches nearby and provide suitable breeding habitat if quality foraging sites (e.g., areas of shallow water) also are available. Detectability (0.29 6 0.04) decreased with increasing wind speed, and decreased about fourfold over the course of the breeding season. Rusty Blackbirds responded to broadcast of conspecific vocalizations by flying toward the observer and perching more often than prior to broadcast, demonstrating that broadcasts can be a useful tool to enhance visual detectability. Given our results, observers can now focus site selection on wetlands and sampling conditions most likely to maximize detections of Rusty Blackbirds

Experimental evidence of genome-wide impact of ecological selection during early stages of speciation-with-gene-flow

Theory predicts that speciation-with-gene-flow is more likely when the consequences of selection for population divergence transitions from mainly direct effects of selection acting on individual genes to a collective property of all selected genes in the genome. Thus, understanding the direct impacts of ecologically based selection, as well as the indirect effects due to correlations among loci, is critical to understanding speciation. Here, we measure the genome-wide impacts of host-associated selection between hawthorn and apple host races of Rhagoletis pomonella (Diptera: Tephritidae), a model for contemporary speciation-with-gene-flow. Allele frequency shifts of 32 455 SNPs induced in a selection experiment based on host phenology were genome wide and highly concordant with genetic divergence between co-occurring apple and hawthorn flies in nature. This striking genome-wide similarity between experimental and natural populations of R. pomonella underscores the importance of ecological selection at early stages of divergence and calls for further integration of studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics and genome divergence

Picture Power? The Contribution of Visuals and Text to Partisan Selective Exposure

Today’s high-choice media environment allows citizens to select news in line with their political preferences and avoid content counter to their priors. So far, however, selective exposure research has exclusively studied news selection based on textual cues, ignoring the recent proliferation of visual media. This study aimed to identify the contribution of visuals alongside text in selective exposure to pro-attitudinal, counter-attitudinal and balanced content. Using two experiments, we created a social media-style newsfeed with news items comprising matching and non-matching images and headlines about the contested issues of immigration and gun control in the U.S. By comparing selection behavior of participants with opposing prior attitudes on these topics, we pulled apart the contribution of images and headlines to selective exposure. Findings show that headlines play a far greater role in guiding selection, with the influence of images being minimal. The additional influence of partisan source cues is also considered

mTORC1 Transcriptional Regulation of Ribosome Subunits, Protein Synthesis, and Molecular Transport in Primary Human Trophoblast Cells.

Mechanistic Target of Rapamycin Complex 1 (mTORC1) serves as positive regulator of placental nutrient transport and mitochondrial respiration. The role of mTORC1 signaling in modulating other placental functions is largely unexplored. We used gene array following silencing of raptor to identify genes regulated by mTORC1 in primary human trophoblast (PHT) cells. Seven hundred and thirty-nine genes were differentially expressed; 487 genes were down-regulated and 252 up-regulated. Bioinformatic analyses demonstrated that inhibition of mTORC1 resulted in decreased expression of genes encoding ribosomal proteins in the 60S and 40S ribosome subunits. Furthermore, down-regulated genes were functionally enriched in genes involved in eIF2, sirtuin and mTOR signaling, mitochondrial function, and glutamine and zinc transport. Stress response genes were enriched among up-regulated genes following mTORC1 inhibition. The protein expression of ribosomal proteins RPL26 (RPL26) and Ribosomal Protein S10 (RPS10) was decreased and positively correlated to mTORC1 signaling and System A amino acid transport in human placentas collected from pregnancies complicated by intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). In conclusion, mTORC1 signaling regulates the expression of trophoblast genes involved in ribosome and protein synthesis, mitochondrial function, lipid metabolism, nutrient transport, and angiogenesis, representing novel links between mTOR signaling and multiple placental functions critical for normal fetal growth and development

Let me Google that for you:a time series analysis of seasonality in internet search trends for terms related to foot and ankle pain

BACKGROUND: The analysis of internet search traffic may present the opportunity to gain insights into general trends and patterns in information seeking behaviour related to medical conditions at a population level. For prevalent and widespread problems such as foot and ankle pain, this information has the potential to improve our understanding of seasonality and trends within these conditions and their treatments, and may act as a useful proxy for their true incidence/prevalence characteristics. This study aimed to explore seasonal effects, general trends and relative popularity of internet search terms related to foot and ankle pain over the past decade. METHODS: We used the Google Trends tool to obtain relative search engine traffic for terms relating to foot and ankle pain and common treatments from Google search and affiliated pages for major northern and southern hemisphere English speaking nations. Analysis of overall trends and seasonality including summer/winter differences was carried out on these terms. RESULTS: Searches relating to general foot pain were on average 3.4 times more common than those relating to ankle pain, and twice as common as searches relating to heel pain. Distinct seasonal effects were seen in the northern hemisphere, with large increases in search volumes in the summer months compared to winter for foot (p = 0.004, 95 % CI [22.2–32.1]), ankle (p = 0.0078, 95 % CI [20.9–35.5]), and heel pain (p = 0.004, 95 % CI [29.1–45.6]). These seasonal effects were reflected by data from Australia, with the exception of ankle pain. Annual seasonal effects for treatment options were limited to terms related to foot surgery and ankle orthoses (p = 0.031, 95 % CI [3.5–20.9]; p = 0.004, 95 % CI [7.6–25.2] respectively), again increasing in the summer months. CONCLUSIONS: A number of general trends and annual seasonal effects were found in time series internet search data for terms relating to foot and ankle pain. This data may provide insights into these conditions at population levels. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13047-015-0074-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Environmental and biological controls on water and energy exchange in Florida scrub oak and pine flatwoods ecosystems

Scrub oak and pine flatwoods are two contrasting ecosystems common to the humid subtropical climate of Florida. Scrub oak forests are short in stature (<2 m) and occur on well-drained sandy soils, and pine flatwoods are much taller and occur in areas with poorly drained soils. Eddy covariance measurements were made from January 2001 to February 2003 over a scrub oak forest and from January 2002 to February 2003 over an adjacent pine flatwoods located on in central Florida, USA, and exposed to similar atmospheric conditions to evaluate how the dynamics of latent heat (lambda E) and sensible heat (H) exchanges are affected by environmental and biological variables. Annual evapotranspiration (Et) for the scrub oak was 737 and 713 mm in 2001 and 2002, respectively. Et was comparatively higher, 812 mm, in 2002 at the pine flatwoods due to higher soil moisture and leaf area. In both ecosystems, springtime increases in lambda E coincided with increasing leaf area and evaporative demand. However, H was the main energy-dissipating component in the spring due to the seasonal decrease in soil water content in the upper soil profile. In the spring, mean weekly Bowen ratio (beta, i.e. H/lambda E) values reached 1.6 and 1.2 in the scrub oak and pine flatwoods, respectively. With the onset of the summertime rainy season, lambda E became the dominant energy flux and beta fells to < 0.4. In both ecosystems, beta was strongly controlled by the interaction between leaf area and soil moisture. The lowest values of the decoupling coefficient (Omega, 0.2 and 0.25 scrub oak and pine flatwoods, respectively) also occurred during the dry springtime period indicating that surface conductance (g(s)) was the mechanism controlling energy partitioning causing high beta in both ecosystems. Et increases in the spring, when water in the upper soil profile was scarce and strongly retained by soil particles, indicated that plants in both ecosystems obtained water from deeper sources. The results from this research elucidate how energy partitioning differs and is regulated in contrasting ecosystems within the Florida landscape, which is important for refining regional hydrological and climate models