Climate Change Across The Macaronesian Geographical Region, 1850 - 2100

The Macaronesian geographical zone extends from 10-40°N, 325-355°E and primarily includes the island chains of the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands and Cape Verde. This thesis presents a wide-ranging analysis of the physical climate and oceanography of the region back to 1850, in order to place recent climate change within a historical context. Subsequently, this thesis presents the most complete documentation of the physical climate of Macaronesia in the English language literature. One of the main outputs of this thesis is the creation of a long-term, monthly surface air temperature record for each island chain (from 1865 for the Azores and Madeira, 1885 for the Canary Islands and 1895 for Cape Verde). These temperature records exhibit generally coherent patterns of variability, and a post-1976 increase in temperature - most probably reflecting an anthropogenic climate signal - is the most ubiquitous, significant rise (or fall) in the record. Precipitation variability is also analysed, although only trends from Cape Verde are particularly significant, where a slight precipitation recovery - after the turn of the Twenty-first Century since drought conditions in the mid-late Twentieth Century - is apparent. Climatological extreme indices, based on calculations that assimilate daily temperature and precipitation data, were also analysed for the recent past (1979-2011) and point towards warmer conditions. An assessment of potential future changes in the mean state and extreme indices of climate across the islands by the end of the Twenty-first Century is provided. Warming magnitudes for the 2071-2100 period range between 0.8-3.0°C above the 1976-2005 mean temperature. Precipitation is expected to decrease across the Canary Islands and Madeira, whereas the Azores is expected to experience more extreme precipitation events and precipitation changes across Cape Verde are uncertain. In addition to the analysis of temperature and precipitation changes, a daily North Atlantic Oscillation index extending back to 1850 using historical sea-level pressure data from the Azores was constructed. The temporal length of this newly created index exceeds the length of any previously available long-running, daily-resolution series by a hundred years and should be of great value to researchers across multiple disciplines. The spatial and temporal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation was analysed, finding an increase in post-2004 winter variability, alongside a post-1991 negative summer trend. A novel method to characterise the strength of the Trade Winds by using data from the Azores and Cape Verde was also developed. The newly-defined Trade Wind index has been steadily increasing since 1973. An additional analysis was a comprehensive overview and reconciliation of multiple data sources to answer the question of whether coastal upwelling has been increasing across the Canary Upwelling Ecosystem along the northwest African coastline. This analysis determined that the Bakun upwelling intensification hypothesis developed in 1990 appears to be realised in the summertime coastal upwelling indices. The North Atlantic Oscillation was discovered to be strongly related to upwelling magnitudes for all seasons except summer, in addition to exerting a strong control on temperatures and precipitation across the three northernmost Macaronesian island chains. The small-scale features affecting island climates and the large-scale modes of variability that influence the Macaronesian region are also discussed

Anomalous blocking over Greenland preceded the 2013 extreme early melt of local sea ice

The Arctic marine environment is undergoing a transition from thick multi-year to first-year sea ice cover with coincident lengthening of the melt season. Such changes are evident in the Baffin Bay-Davis Strait-Labrador Sea (BDL) region where melt onset has occurred ~8 days decade-1 earlier from 1979-2015. A series of anomalously early events has occurred since the mid-1990s, overlapping a period of increased upper-air ridging across Greenland and the northwestern North Atlantic. We investigate an extreme early melt event observed in spring 2013 below the 1981-2010 melt climatology), with respect to preceding sub-seasonal mid-tropospheric circulation conditions as described by a daily Greenland Blocking Index (GBI). The 40-days prior to the 2013 BDL melt onset are characterized by a persistent, strong 500 hPa anticyclone over the region (GBI >+1 on >75% of days). This circulation pattern advected warm air from northeastern Canada and the northwestern Atlantic poleward onto the thin, first-year sea ice and caused melt about 50 days earlier than normal. The episodic increase in the ridging atmospheric pattern near western Greenland as in 2013, exemplified by large positive GBI values, is an important recent process impacting the atmospheric circulation over a North Atlantic cryosphere undergoing accelerated regional climate change

Low State, Phase-Resolved IR Spectroscopy of VV Puppis

We present phase-resolved low resolution $JHK$ and higher resolution $K$-band spectroscopy of the polar VV Pup. All observations were obtained when VV Pup was in a low accretion state having a K magnitude near 15. The low resolution observations reveal cyclotron emission in the $J$ band during some phases, consistent with an origin near the active 30.5 MG pole on the white dwarf. The secondary in VV Pup appears to be a normal M7V star and we find that the $H$ and $K$ band fluxes are entirely due to this star at all orbital phases during the low accretion state. We use our higher resolution Keck spectroscopy to produce the first $K$-band radial velocity curve for VV Pup. Our orbital solution yields $K_2$=414$\pm27$ km sec$^{-1}$ and leads to mass estimates of M$_1$=0.73$\pm$0.05 M$_{\odot}$ and M$_2$=0.10$\pm$0.02 M$_{\odot}$. We find that the mass accretion rates during the normal low states of the polars VV Pup, EF Eri, and EQ Cet are near 10$^{-13}$ M$_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$. The fact that \.M is not zero in low state polars indicates active secondary stars in these binary systems, including the sub-stellar donor star present in EF Eri.Comment: Accepted in Astronomical Journal 5 figure

Extended north Atlantic oscillation and Greenland blocking indices 1800–2020 from new meteorological reanalysis

Based on newly-available meteorological reanalysis, we compile and present extended seasonal series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Greenland Blocking indices spanning 1800–2020, which we analyse for evidence of significant trends. This represents a major backward extension of the previously available instrumental-/reanalysis-based Azores–Iceland and principal component-based NAO indices, and allows us to evaluate the potential effect of natural climate perturbations, especially the 1809 and 1815 major volcanic eruptions and ~1790s–1830 Dalton solar minimum, on North Atlantic atmospheric circulation. We find that winters 1809/10 and 1816/17 mark positive NAO peaks, relative to several years before and afterwards, which is in accordance with the theory of volcanic forcing of climate. However, there is little evidence of a summer NAO volcanic signature. Overall, based on the significantly longer new reanalysis time series, the new series presented here corroborate and extend our previous results of: (1) a significantly more variable year-to-year NAO with a recent exceptional clustering of extreme events since 2000 for winter; (2) a significant increasing trend in blocking over Greenland in summer. These trends have major repercussions for the probability of the occurrence of extreme weather events over northwest Europe and for the sensitivity and response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to global warming, especially if they continue as an integral part of anthropogenic climate chang

Quasi-periodic oscillations in accreting magnetic white dwarfs II. The asset of numerical modelling for interpreting observations

Magnetic cataclysmic variables are close binary systems containing a strongly magnetized white dwarf that accretes matter coming from an M-dwarf companion. High-energy radiation coming from those objects is emitted from the accretion column close to the white dwarf photosphere at the impact region. Its properties depend on the characteristics of the white dwarf and an accurate accretion column model allows the properties of the binary system to be inferred, such as the white dwarf mass, its magnetic field, and the accretion rate. We study the temporal and spectral behaviour of the accretion region and use the tools we developed to accurately connect the simulation results to the X-ray and optical astronomical observations. The radiation hydrodynamics code Hades was adapted to simulate this specific accretion phenomena. Classical approaches were used to model the radiative losses of the two main radiative processes: bremsstrahlung and cyclotron. The oscillation frequencies and amplitudes in the X-ray and optical domains are studied to compare those numerical results to observational ones. Different dimensional formulae were developed to complete the numerical evaluations. The complete characterization of the emitting region is described for the two main radiative regimes: when only the bremsstrahlung losses and when both cyclotron and bremsstrahlung losses are considered. The effect of the non-linear cooling in- stability regime on the accretion column behaviour is analysed. Variation in luminosity on short timescales (~ 1 s quasi-periodic oscillations) is an expected consequence of this specific dynamic. The importance of secondary shock instability on the quasi-periodic oscillation phenomenon is discussed. The stabilization effect of the cyclotron process is confirmed by our numerical simulations, as well as the power distribution in the various modes of oscillation.Comment: 13 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in A&

K-Band Spectroscopy of (Pre-)Cataclysmic Variables: Are Some Donor Stars Really Carbon Poor?

We present a new sample of $K$-band spectral observations for CVs: non-magnetic and magnetic as well as present day and pre CVs. The purpose of this diverse sample is to address the recent claim that the secondary stars in dwarf novae are carbon deficient, having become so through a far more evolved evolution than the current paradigm predicts. Our new observations, along with previous literature results, span a wide range of orbital period and CV type. In general, dwarf novae in which the secondary star is seen show weak to no CO absorption while polar and pre-CV donor stars appear to have normal CO absorption for their spectral type. However, this is not universal. The presence of normal looking CO absorption in the dwarf nova SS Aur and the hibernating CV QS Vir and a complete lack of CO absorption in the long period polar V1309 Ori cloud the issue. A summary of the literature pointing to non-solar abundances including enhanced NV/CIV ratios is presented. It appears that some CVs have non-solar abundance material accreting onto the white dwarf suggesting an evolved secondary star while for others CO emission in the accretion disk may play a role. However, the exact mechanism or combination of factors causing the CO absorption anomaly in CVs is not yet clear.Comment: Accepted in A

Time Dependent Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer Calculations For 3-Dimensional Supernova Spectra, Lightcurves, and Polarization

We discuss Monte-Carlo techniques for addressing the 3-dimensional time-dependent radiative transfer problem in rapidly expanding supernova atmospheres. The transfer code SEDONA has been developed to calculate the lightcurves, spectra, and polarization of aspherical supernova models. From the onset of free-expansion in the supernova ejecta, SEDONA solves the radiative transfer problem self-consistently, including a detailed treatment of gamma-ray transfer from radioactive decay and with a radiative equilibrium solution of the temperature structure. Line fluorescence processes can also be treated directly. No free parameters need be adjusted in the radiative transfer calculation, providing a direct link between multi-dimensional hydrodynamical explosion models and observations. We describe the computational techniques applied in SEDONA, and verify the code by comparison to existing calculations. We find that convergence of the Monte Carlo method is rapid and stable even for complicated multi-dimensional configurations. We also investigate the accuracy of a few commonly applied approximations in supernova transfer, namely the stationarity approximation and the two-level atom expansion opacity formalism.Comment: 16 pages, ApJ accepte

The Dual-Axis Circumstellar Environment of the Type IIn Supernova 1997eg

We present multi-epoch spectral and spectropolarimetric observations of the Type IIn supernova (SN) 1997eg that indicate the presence of a flattened disk-like concentration of circumstellar material surrounding nonspherical ejecta, with which the disk is misaligned. The polarization across the broad H alpha, H beta, and He I 5876 lines of SN 1997eg forms closed loops when viewed in the Stokes q-u plane. Such loops occur when the geometrical symmetry of one or both of the Stokes parameters across spectral lines is broken, in this case most likely by occultation of the ejecta by the equatorial circumstellar matter concentration. The polarization of the narrow Balmer lines possesses an intrinsic axis that differs by 12 degrees from that of the elongated ejecta and probably indicates the orientation of the disk-like circumstellar material. The existence of two different axes of symmetry in SN 1997eg suggests that neither rotation of the progenitor nor the influence of a companion star can be the sole mechanism creating a preferred axis within the supernova system. Our model supports the emerging hypothesis that the progenitors of some Type IIn supernovae are luminous blue variable stars, whose pre-supernova mass eruptions form the circumstellar shells that physically characterize the SN IIn subclass. These conclusions, which are independent of interstellar polarization effects, would have been unobservable with only a single epoch of spectropolarimetry.Comment: 52 pages, 13 figures; accepted by ApJ. Several sections revised in response to referee comments. High-resolution figures are available at http://grammai.org/jhoffman/1997eg

Cyclotron Modeling Phase-Resolved Infrared Spectroscopy of Polars III: AM Herculis and ST Leo Minoris

We present phase-resolved low resolution infrared spectra of AM Her and ST LMi, two low-field polars that we observed with SPEX on the IRTF. Optical/NIR lightcurves are also published to help constrain the viewing geometry and brightness of the objects at the time they were observed. Currently, only limited IR spectra have been published for these objects, and none with the phase-coverage presented here. In both cases, the resulting spectra are dominated by emission from the secondary star in the NIR. However, the emission regions are also self-eclipsed, allowing us to isolate the cyclotron emission through subtraction of the dim-phase spectrum. We use a ``Constant Lambda'' prescription to model the changing cyclotron features seen in the resulting data. For AM Her, we find a best fit model of: B = 13.6 MG, kT = 4.0 keV, and logLambda = 5.0. The cyclotron derived accretion geometry is consistent with an orbital inclination of 50 degrees and a magnetic co-latitude of 85 degrees. For ST LMi, B = 12.1 MG, kT = 3.3 keV, and logLambda = 5.7 with an orbital inclination of 55 degrees and a magnetic co-latitude of 128 degrees.Comment: 12 Pages, 9 figures. To Appear in 2008 August 1 issue of Ap

Tackling transition:the value of peer mentoring

This paper is aimed at those interested in the promotion of student retention in higher education; particularly those with an interest in peer mentoring as a means of student support. It critically discusses the results of an exploratory study analysing the perceptions of peer mentors and mentees within five universities in the United Kingdom. The aim of the study was to analyse how student peer mentoring can aid transition into university by focusing specifically on how senior students can support their junior counterparts in their first year at university. The paper discusses the results of a survey which was completed by 329 student peer mentors and mentees. Focusing on the benefits and outcomes of participation in Mentoring Programmes, the survey was distinctive in that it asked mentors and mentees similar questions. From a theoretical perspective, the paper contributes to debates about peer support in higher education showing that participation in such programmes can have positive outcomes from both social and pedagogic perspectives. Practically speaking, the results have important implications for Higher Education Institutions as the research highlights the importance of putting into place formally structured Peer Mentoring Programmes which facilitate student support at a time when new students are most at risk of ‘dropping out’