Comparison of alternative risk adjustment measures for predictive modeling: high risk patient case finding using Taiwan's National Health Insurance claims

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Predictive modeling presents an opportunity to contain the expansion of medical expenditures by focusing on very few people. Evaluation of how risk adjustment models perform in predictive modeling in Taiwan or Asia has been rare. The aims of this study were to evaluate the performance of different risk adjustment models (the ACG risk adjustment system and prior expenditures) in predictive modeling, using Taiwan's National Health Insurance (NHI) claims data, and to compare characteristics of potentially high-expenditure subjects identified through different models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A random sample of NHI enrollees continuously enrolled in 2002 and 2003 (n = 164,562) was selected. Health status measures and total expenditures derived from 2002 NHI claims data were used to predict the possibility of becoming 2003 top users. Statistics-based indicators (C-statistics, sensitivity, & Predictive Positive Value) and characteristics of identified top groups by different models (expenditures and prevalence of manageable diseases) were presented.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both diagnosis-based and prior expenditures models performed much better than the demographic model. Diagnosis-based models were better in identifying top users with manageable diseases; prior expenditures models were better in statistics-based indicators and identifying people with higher average expenditures. Prior expenditures status could correctly identify more actual top users than diagnosis-based or demographic models. The proportions of actual top users that could be identified by diagnosis-based models alone were much lower than that identified by prior expenditures status.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Predicted top users identified by different models have different characteristics and there is little agreement between modes regarding which groups would be potentially top users; therefore, which model to use should depend on the purpose of predictive modeling. Prior expenditures are a more powerful tool than diagnosis-based risk adjusters in terms of correctly identifying more actual high expenditures users. There is still much room left for improvement of diagnosis-based models in predictive modeling.</p

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Monitoring the prevalence of chronic conditions: which data should we use?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic diseases are an increasing threat to people’s health and to the sustainability of health organisations. Despite the need for routine monitoring systems to assess the impact of chronicity in the population and its evolution over time, currently no single source of information has been identified as suitable for this purpose. Our objective was to describe the prevalence of various chronic conditions estimated using routine data recorded by health professionals: diagnoses on hospital discharge abstracts, and primary care prescriptions and diagnoses.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The ICD-9-CM codes for diagnoses and Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) codes for prescriptions were collected for all patients in the Basque Country over 14 years of age (n=1,964,337) for a 12-month period. We employed a range of different inputs: hospital diagnoses, primary care diagnoses, primary care prescriptions and combinations thereof. Data were collapsed into the morbidity groups specified by the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACGs) Case-Mix System. We estimated the prevalence of 12 chronic conditions, comparing the results obtained using the different data sources with each other and also with those of the Basque Health Interview Survey (ESCAV). Using the different combinations of inputs, Standardized Morbidity Ratios (SMRs) for the considered diseases were calculated for the list of patients of each general practitioner. The variances of the SMRs were used as a measure of the dispersion of the data and were compared using the Brown-Forsythe test.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalences calculated using prescription data were higher than those obtained from diagnoses and those from the ESCAV, with two exceptions: malignant neoplasm and migraine. The variances of the SMRs obtained from the combination of all the data sources (hospital diagnoses, and primary care prescriptions and diagnoses) were significantly lower than those using only diagnoses.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The estimated prevalence of chronic diseases varies considerably depending of the source(s) of information used. Given that administrative databases compile data registered for other purposes, the estimations obtained must be considered with caution. In a context of increasingly widespread computerisation of patient medical records, the complementary use of a range of sources may be a feasible option for the routine monitoring of the prevalence of chronic diseases.</p