A Method for Enhancing Capacity of Local Governance for Climate Change Adaptation

UID/AMB/04085/2019The lack of capacity for climate change adaptation at the subnational level has been highlighted as a key barrier to implementing the UNFCCC National Adaptation Plans. At the same time, the adaptive capacity of local governance is highly context sensitive, making a “one-size fits all” approach inappropriate. Thus, a versatile methodological approach for application in various local contexts is required. There are several indicator-based local governance assessment methods for evaluating the effectiveness of local governance for climate change adaptation. However, they fall short of identifying and prioritizing between key factors within local governance for enhancing adaptive capacity and driving positive change. Building on adaptation theory, the authors propose combining two methodological approaches, the Capital Approach Framework for evaluating the adaptive capacity of local governance and Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping for identifying leverage points, into one integrated modeling approach, which can be applied by local researchers. This paper describes the process and benefits of combining the methodological approaches, with an example provided as supporting information. Assisting decision-makers and policy planners from subnational governance in identifying leverage points to focus and maximize impact of capacity-enhancing measures would make a key contribution for successful implementation of the UNFCCC National Adaptation Plans.publishersversionpublishe

On the suitability of North Brazil Current transport estimates for monitoring basin-scale AMOC changes

The North Brazil Current (NBC) constitutes a bottleneck for the mean northward return flow of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the tropical South Atlantic. Previous studies suggested a link between interannual to multidecadal NBC and AMOC transport variability and proposed to use NBC observations as an index for the AMOC. Here we use a set of hindcast, sensitivity, and perturbation experiments performed within a hierarchy of ocean general circulation models to show that decadal to multidecadal buoyancy-forced changes in the basin-scale AMOC transport indeed manifest themselves in the NBC. The relation is, however, masked by a strong interannual to decadal wind-driven gyre variability of the NBC. While questioning the NBC transport as a direct index for the AMOC, the results support its potential merit for an AMOC monitoring system, provided that the wind-driven circulation variability is properly accounted for

Sequential climate change policy

Successfully managing global climate change will require a process of sequential, or iterative, decision‐making, whereby policies and other decisions are revised repeatedly over multiple decades in response to changes in scientific knowledge, technological capabilities, or other conditions. Sequential decisions are required by the combined presence of long lags and uncertainty in climate and energy systems. Climate decision studies have most often examined simple cases of sequential decisions, with two decision points at fixed times and initial uncertainties that are resolved at the second decision point. Studies using this formulation initially suggested that increasing uncertainty favors stronger immediate action, while the prospect of future learning favors weaker immediate action, but subsequent work with more general formulations showed that the direction of either effect is indeterminate, depending on multiple elements of model structure and parameter values. Current issues in sequential climate decision‐making include assessing responses to potential slow learning or negative learning, and examining the implications of various mechanisms by which current decision‐makers may seek to influence future decisions by altering the choice sets, knowledge states, marginal costs and benefits, or default procedural requirements faced by future decision‐makers. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 744–756 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.128 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs websitePeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/86798/1/128_ftp.pd

Can plants help us avoid seeding a human‐made climate catastrophe?

Drastic phase down of our carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from burning fossil fuels within decades will likely be insufficient to avoid seeding catastrophic human‐caused climate change. We have to also start removing CO2 from the atmosphere, safely, affordably and within decades. Technological approaches for large‐scale carbon removal and storage hold great promise but are far from the gigaton‐scale required. Enhanced chemical weathering of crushed silicate rocks and afforestation are proposed CO2 removal approaches mimicking events during the Devonian rise of forests that triggered massive CO2 drawdown and the great late Palaeozoic cooling. Evidence from Earth's history suggests that if undertaken at scale, these strategies may represent key elements of a climate restoration plan but will still be far from sufficient. Climate protests by the world's youth are justified. They recognize the urgency of the situation and the intergenerational injustice of our time: current and future generations footing the immense economic and ecological bill for damaging carbon emissions they had no part in and which world leaders are failing to limit

What benefits do community forests provide, and to whom? A rapid assessment of ecosystem services from a Himalayan forest, Nepal

In Nepal, community forestry is part of a national strategy for livelihoods improvement and environmental protection. However, analysis of the social, economic and environmental impacts of community forestry is often limited, restricted to a narrow set of benefits (e.g. non-timber forest products) and rarely makes comparisons with alternative land-use options (e.g. agriculture). This study, conducted at Phulchoki Mountain Forest Important Bird and Biodiversity Area (IBA) in the Kathmandu Valley, used methods from the Toolkit for Ecosystem Service Site-based Assessment (TESSA) to compare multiple ecosystem service values (including carbon storage, greenhouse gas sequestration, water provision, water quality, harvested wild goods, cultivated goods and nature-based recreation) provided by the site in its current state and a plausible alternative state in which community forestry had not been implemented. We found that outcomes from community forestry have been favourable for most stakeholders, at most scales, for most services and for important biodiversity at the site. However, not all ecosystem services can be maximised simultaneously, and impacts of land-use decisions on service beneficiaries appear to differ according to socio-economic factors. The policy implications of our findings are discussed in the context of proposals to designate Phulchoki Mountain Forest IBA as part of a Conservation Area