Improving Antarctic Total Ozone Projections by a Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Ensemble Regression

Accurate projections of stratospheric ozone are required because ozone changes affect exposure to ultraviolet radiation and tropospheric climate. Unweighted multimodel ensemble-mean (uMMM) projections from chemistry–climate models (CCMs) are commonly used to project ozone in the twenty-first century, when ozone-depleting substances are expected to decline and greenhouse gases are expected to rise. Here, the authors address the question of whether Antarctic total column ozone projections in October given by the uMMM of CCM simulations can be improved by using a process-oriented multiple diagnostic ensemble regression (MDER) method. This method is based on the correlation between simulated future ozone and selected key processes relevant for stratospheric ozone under present-day conditions. The regression model is built using an algorithm that selects those process-oriented diagnostics that explain a significant fraction of the spread in the projected ozone among the CCMs. The regression model with observed diagnostics is then used to predict future ozone and associated uncertainty. The precision of the authors’ method is tested in a pseudoreality; that is, the prediction is validated against an independent CCM projection used to replace unavailable future observations. The tests show that MDER has higher precision than uMMM, suggesting an improvement in the estimate of future Antarctic ozone. The authors’ method projects that Antarctic total ozone will return to 1980 values at around 2055 with the 95% prediction interval ranging from 2035 to 2080. This reduces the range of return dates across the ensemble of CCMs by about a decade and suggests that the earliest simulated return dates are unlikely

OH and halogen atom influence on the variability of non-methane hydrocarbons in the Antarctic Boundary Layer

Measurements of C2–C8 non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) have been made in situ at Halley Base, Antarctica (75°35'S, 26°19'W) from February 2004 to February 2005 as part of the Chemistry of the Antarctic Boundary Layer and the Interface with Snow (CHABLIS) experiment. The data show long- and short-term variabilities in NMHCs controlled by the seasonal and geographic dependence of emissions and variation in atmospheric removal rates and pathways. Ethane, propane, iso-butane, n-butane and acetylene abundances followed a general OH-dependent sinusoidal seasonal cycle. The yearly averages were 186, 31, 3.2, 4.9 and 19 pptV, respectively, lower than those which were reported in some previous studies. Superimposed on a seasonal cycle was shorter-term variability that could be attributed to both synoptic airmass variability and localized loss processes due to other radical species. Hydrocarbon variability during periods of hour-to-day-long surface O3 depletion in late winter/early spring indicated active halogen atom chemistry estimated to be in the range 1.7 × 103–3.4 × 104 atom cm−3 for Cl and 4.8 × 106–9.6 × 107 atom cm−3 for Br. Longer-term negative deviations from sinusoidal behaviour in the late August were indicative of NMHC reaction with a persistent [Cl] of 2.3 × 103 atom cm−3. Maximum ethene and propene of 157 and 179 pptV, respectively, were observed in the late February/early March, consistent with increased oceanic biogenic emissions; however, their presence was significant year-round (June–August concentrations of 17.1 ± 18.3 and 7.9 ± 20.0 pptV, respectively)