Ethiopia’s Agricultural Transformation: Agribusiness’ Contribution to Reducing Youth Unemployment

This article explores empirical evidence on the relationship between agricultural transformation, ownership structure of agribusinesses, and employment creation in Ethiopia. It draws on secondary data to present evidence of Ethiopia’s agricultural transformation, employment trends, and the agribusiness sector’s contribution to employment generation. The country’s agricultural sector has shown signs of transformation in the form of both labour movement to the more productive manufacturing and services sectors, and productivity growth through the commercialisation and creation of agribusinesses. The findings suggest that the growing number of agribusinesses are generating more jobs for youth but also reveal a number of challenges to overcome, such as skills gaps, low pay in the private sector, and inflexible land ownership and transfer processes. The study suggests targeted policy reforms to incentivise efficient and competitive private agribusinesses, and to address agribusiness-related constraints, skills and wage gaps, as well as land ownership and rental market constraints.Mastercard Foundatio

Realising the Potential of Agribusiness to Reduce Youth Unemployment in Ethiopia

Agribusiness in Ethiopia has grown significantly in the last 20 years, and this growth is set to continue. This transition presents opportunities to address the country’s high youth unemployment and for agribusinesses to participate in global, regional, and local markets. In Ethiopia, youth (15–29 years old) are four times more likely to be unemployed compared to adults. While there are many jobs being created in the agribusiness sector, there are significant skill and pay gaps. Potential jobs are also being lost because of poor infrastructure and lack of access to suitable land. As Ethiopia moves towards further privatisation, the government needs to launch a strategy to create an efficient and competitive agribusiness sector to fuel ‘decent’ job creation for youth.The MasterCard Foundation

Climate variability, social capital and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa : household level assessment of potential impacts and adaptation options

Climate variability and poor distribution of rainfall often causes serious agricultural production losses and worsens food insecurity. Given that the direct effects of climate change and variability are transmitted through the agricultural sector, improving farm households capacities to adapt to the adverse effects of climate-related shocks is an important policy concern. This thesis applied a stochastic Agent-based Model (ABM) that is capable of simulating the effects of different adaptation options by capturing the dynamic changes of climate and prices, as well as the dynamic adaptive process of different farm households to the impacts of these changes. The agent-based simulations conducted in this thesis address the special challenges of climate and price variability in the context of small-scale and subsistence agriculture by capturing non-separable production and consumption decisions, as well as the role of livestock for consumption smoothing. To ensure the reliability and usefulness of results, the model was validated with reference to land-use and overall poverty levels based on observed survey values. In particular, the study used disaggregated socio-economic, price, climate and crop yield data to quantify the impacts of climate and price variability on food security and poverty at the household level. Furthermore, the study explicitly captured crop-livestock interactions and the recursive nature of livestock keeping when examining the effects of climate and price variability. The thesis additionally examined how specific adaptation strategies and policy interventions, especially those related to the promotion of credit, improved seed varieties, fertilizer subsidy and off-farm employment, affect the distribution of household food security and poverty outcomes. In addition to impacts on household food security and poverty, the study further considered indirect impacts through changes in the price of agricultural inputs and livestock holding. In terms of coping strategies, the simulation results in this thesis show that the effects of climate and price variability on consumption are considerable, but smaller for those households with relatively large livestock endowments. In addition, the study also found that farm households with a large plantation area of eucalyptus were able to cope with the effects of variability. Therefore, our results suggest that self-coping strategies are important but not sufficient and should be complemented with appropriate policy interventions. In terms of policy interventions, the study found that policy intervention through the expansion of credit and fertilizer subsidy along with innovation through the promotion of new crop varieties that are resilient and adapted to local conditions are the most effective adaptation options for the case of Ethiopia. In addition, the simulation results underscore that adaptation strategies composed of a portfolio of actions (such as credit and fertilizer subsidy along with new technologies) are more effective compared to a single policy intervention. For Ghana, the study suggests that if expansion of production credit is complimented by irrigation, it can provide a way to achieve food security under climate and price variability. In order to design a best-fit intervention instead of a one size fits all approach, it is important to capture the distribution of effects across locations as well as households. The great strength of this study is its agent-based nature, which enables exploration of how effects are distributed across farm households. The simulation results clearly show that poor farms are vulnerable to climate and price variability, under which they suffer food insecurity, while a small group of wealthy farms are better off due to higher prices achieved when selling crops. The result from this thesis further underscores the need for improving adaptive capacity, as a large proportion of farm households are unable to shield themselves against the impacts of price and climate variability. In what follows, the study further applied standard micro-econometric techniques to examine the role of social capital and informal social networks on consumption insurance and adoption of risk mitigating land management practices. In particular, the thesis provides evidence of the effects of different dimensions of social capital on the adoption of soil and water conservation practices across households holding different levels of risk-aversion. The results of the study underscore that social capital plays a significant role in enhancing the adoption of improved farmland management practices and suggests that the effect of social capital across households with heterogeneous risk taking behaviour is different. Finally, by combining household panel data, weather data, self-reported health shocks and detailed social capital information, the last section is able to analyze how social capital buffers some of the implications of weather shocks.Klimavariabilität und ungünstige Verteilung von Regenfällen verursachen oft erhebliche Verluste in der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion, und verschlechtern die Nahrungssicherheit. Da die direkten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels und der Klimavariabilität über den landwirtschaftlichen Sektor übertragen werden, hat die Verbesserung der Möglichkeiten für landwirtschaftliche Haushalte sich an widrige, durch das Klima verursachte Schocks anzupassen, wichtige politische Bedeutung. Die vorliegende Dissertation nutzte ein stochastisches, agentenbasiertes Model, welches in der Lage ist, die Effekte verschiedener Anpassungsoptionen zu simulieren, indem es die dynamischen Entwicklungen von Klima und Preisen, sowie die dynamischen Anpassungsprozesse der verschiedenen landwirtschaftlichen Betriebe an die Auswirkungen dieser Veränderungen erfasst. Die in der vorliegenden Arbeit durchgeführten agentenbasierten Simulationen widmen sich der besonderen Herausforderung der Klima- und Preisänderungen im Kontext der kleinbäuerlichen Selbstversorgungslandwirtschaft, in dem sie die nicht voneinander trennbaren Produktions- und Konsumentscheidungen, sowie die Rolle des Viehbestandes für den Konsumausgleich berücksichtigen. Um die Verlässlichkeit und die Brauchbarkeit der Ergebnisse sicher zu stellen wurde das Modell in Bezug auf Nahrungssicherheit, Landnutzung und allgemeine Armutsgrenze, basierend auf beobachteten Erhebungsdaten, validiert. Im Besonderen wurden für die vorliegende Studie disaggregierte sozioökonomische Daten, sowie disaggregierte Daten zu Preisen, Klima und Ernteerträgen genutzt, um die Auswirkungen von Klima- und Preisänderungen auf Nahrungssicherheit und Armut auf Haushaltsniveau zu quantifizieren. Des Weiteren wurden Interaktionen zwischen Pflanzenbau und Tierzucht, sowie der rekursive Charakter der Viehhaltung bei der Untersuchung der Effekte durch Klima- und Preisänderungen explizit berücksichtigt. Die Dissertation betrachtet darüber hinaus, wie sich bestimmte Strategien und Politikeingriffe, insbesondere diejenigen mit Bezug auf die Förderung von Krediten, verbessertes Saatgut, Düngemittelsubvention und außerbetriebliche Beschäftigung auf die Verteilung von Haushalts-Nahrungssicherheit und Armut im Ergebnis auswirken. Darüberhinaus erfasst die Studie auch die indirekten Auswirkungen durch Änderungen der Preise für landwirtschaftliche Betriebsmittel und Tierhaltung. Was die Anpassungsstrategien betrifft, zeigen die Simulationsergebnisse dieser Dissertation, dass die Auswirkungen von Klima- und Preisvariabilität auf den Konsum zwar beträchtlich sind, jedoch für diejenigen Haushalte mit relativ großem Viehbestand kleiner sind. Außerdem fand die Studie heraus, dass landwirtschaftliche Haushalte mit ausgedehnten Flächen von Eukalyptuspflanzungen in der Lage waren mit den Effekten der Variabilität zurecht zu kommen. Demzufolge legen unsere Ergebnisse nahe, dass Eigenanpassungsstrategien zwar wichtig, jedoch nicht ausreichend sind, und deshalb mit geeigneten Politikinterventionen ergänzt werden sollten. Was die Politikinterventionen betrifft, so fand die Untersuchung heraus, dass im Falle Äthiopiens die Anpassung mittels Innovation durch die Förderung von neuen Feldfruchtsorten, die widerstandsfähig und an die lokalen Verhältnisse angepasst sind, die effektivste Anpassungsmöglichkeit darstellt; gefolgt von der Erweiterung der Kredit- und Düngemittelsubventionen. Außerdem unterstreichen die Simulationsergebnisse, dass Anpassungsstrategien bestehend aus einem Bündel von Aktionen (wie z.B. Kredit- und Düngemittelsubventionen zusammen mit neuen Technologien), wirkungsvoller sind als einzelne Politikinterventionen. Im Falle Ghanas legt die Studie nahe, dass eine Kombination von Kreditförderung und Bewässerung ein Weg sein kann, Nahrungssicherung trotz Klima- und Preisvariabilität zu erreichen. Um eine Best-Fit-Intervention entwerfen zu können, anstatt einen Einheitsansatz für alle zu verfolgen, ist es wichtig die Streuung der Effekte über alle Orte (Siedlungen) und Haushalte zu erfassen. Die große Stärke dieser Studie ist ihre agentenbasierte Herangehensweise, die dazu befähigt, zu erforschen, wie die Auswirkungen über die landwirtschaftlichen Haushalte verteilt sind. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen deutlich, dass arme Betriebe gegenüber Klima- und Preisvariabilität ungeschützt sind, wodurch sie unter Nahrungsunsicherheit leiden, während eine kleine Gruppe wohlhabender Betriebe durch die höheren Preise für Feldfrüchte finanziell besser gestellt sind. Das Ergebnis der vorliegenden Arbeit unterstreicht weiterhin die Notwendigkeit die Adaptationsfähigkeit zu verbessern, da ein großer Teil der landwirtschaftlichen Haushalte nicht in der Lage sind sich selbstständig gegen die Auswirkungen der Klima- und Preisvariabilität zu schützen

Estimating returns to fertilizer adoption with unobserved heterogeneity: evidence from Ethiopia

Open Access JournalThis paper examines the relationship between chemical fertilizer adoption and agricultural productivity in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that average returns to fertilizer adoption are high. Further, we find substantial heterogeneity across farm households in returns to fertilizer adoption, with comparative advantage playing a significant role in the adoption decision of farmers. While the adoption decision of farmers was largely rational, fertilizer use across plots was sub‐optimal. The results of this paper underscore the importance of improving farmers awareness about proper use of fertilizer through site‐specific extension services for improving agricultural productivity

Measuring the impacts of adaptation strategies to drought stress: the case of drought tolerant maize varieties

Article purchasedThis study measured the impacts of drought tolerant maize varieties (DTMVs) on productivity, welfare, and risk exposure using household and plot-level data from rural Nigeria. The study employed an endogenous switching regression approach to control for both observed and unobserved sources of heterogeneity between adopters and non-adopters. Our results showed that adoption of DTMVs increased maize yields by 13.3% and reduced the level of variance by 53% and downside risk exposure by 81% among adopters. This suggests that adoption had a “win-win” outcome by increasing maize yields and reducing exposure to drought risk. The gains in productivity and risk reduction due to adoption led to a reduction of 12.9% in the incidence of poverty and of 83.8% in the probability of food scarcity among adopters. The paper concluded that adoption of DTMVs was not just a simple coping strategy against drought but also a productivity enhancing and welfare improving strategy. The results point to the need for policies and programs aimed at enhancing adoption as an adaptation strategy to drought stress in Nigeria and beyond

Impacts of extension access and cooperative membership on technology adoption and household welfare

This paper examines the impacts of access to extension services and cooperative membership on technology adoption, asset ownership and poverty using household-level data from rural Nigeria. Using different matching techniques and endogenous switching regression approach, we find that both extension access and cooperative membership have a positive and statistically significant effect on technology adoption and household welfare. Moreover, we find that both extension access and cooperative membership have heterogeneous impacts. In particular, we find evidence of a positive selection as the average treatment effects of extension access and cooperative membership are higher for farmers with the highest propensity to access extension and cooperative services. The impact of extension services on poverty reduction and of cooperatives on technology adoption is significantly stronger for smallholders with access to formal credit than for those without access. This implies that expanding rural financial markets can maximize the potential positive impacts of extension and cooperative services on farmers’ productivity and welfare

Uptake of agroforestry-based crop management in the semi-arid Sahel – Analysis of joint decisions and adoption determinants

Introduction: Agroforestry plays a vital role in maintaining and developing the resilience and productivity of farms and landscapes. Scientific evidence from the Sahel region suggests that integration of trees and shrubs has the potential to improve temperature and moisture levels whilst providing bio-based fertilizer that contributes to increased yields of annual crops. However, little is known about the factors that influence the diffusion of agroforestry. This study examines joint decisions on the use of agroforestry alongside other complementary agricultural practices and disentangles agroforestry awareness from adoption and disadoption decisions. Methods: Our analysis is based on a comprehensive farm-level dataset covering almost 3,000 farm households in Mali and Senegal. A large number of adoption determinants are utilized, with a special focus on information access, information flows and social groups. Results: The findings suggest that extension access and training participation boost awareness of agroforestry-based soil fertility management, while information provided by public extension, NGOs and community members is strongly associated with higher adoption intensity. In the analysis of disadoption, farmer-to-farmers exchange in the community was found to be a key factor in the decision to maintain agroforestry use. Membership in cooperatives and youth groups appear to have a favorable effect on awareness and adoption in Mali, but less so in the Senegalese case. Similarly, only results from Mali show that adoption of agroforestry is accompanied by the adoption of other sustainable intensification practices and lower use of synthetic pesticides. Discussion: We conclude that in order to support the transition to more widespread agroforestry-based soil fertility management, it is essential to strengthen public and NGO-based advisory systems that fully engage with local knowledge networks

Review of solar dryers for agricultural products in Asia and Africa : An innovation landscape approach

Solar drying is one of the most efficient and cost-effective, renewable, and sustainable technologies to conserve agricultural products in Asian and sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. This review paper presents the different types of solar dryers that are widely used in Africa and Asia. In addition, the pre-eminent effects of their use on product quality, as well as their economic, environmental, and social impacts, are highlighted. Since financial, external, and structural factors play a key role in the adoption and scaling of solar dryers, this paper also discusses the impact of these factors on the effectiveness of solar drying technologies in selected Asian and SSA countries.</p

Occurrence of aflatoxin in agricultural produce from local markets in Burundi and Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo

Open Access JournalAflatoxins are noxious secondary metabolites, of certain fungal species, found in food and feed. Contamination of a commodity with aflatoxins is associated with production and storage losses, and subsequently less food availability. Aflatoxins can also pose human health risks and represent a barrier to the development of trade, in both domestic and international markets. In this study, samples of cassava, maize, groundnut, beans, soybean, sorghum and milk, and their processed products were collected from local markets in Burundi and Eastern DRC. In order to investigate the levels of aflatoxin, crop samples were analyzed using a single step lateral flow immunochromatographic assay (Reveal Q+), while enzyme‐linked immune‐sorbent assay (ELISA) was used to analyze aflatoxin‐M1 in milk, yogurt, and cheese samples. The results revealed the presence of aflatoxins in all samples from both countries, with levels ranging from 1.3 to 2,410 μg/kg. Samples collected from Burundi contained relatively higher (p > 0.0.5) levels of aflatoxins. In 51% of all the crops samples, total aflatoxin contamination was above the EU maximum tolerable level of 4 μg/kg. Processed products, particularly from groundnut, maize, and sorghum, had the highest levels of aflatoxin contamination when compared to unprocessed grain. With regard to milk and dairy products, the level of aflatoxin‐M1 ranged from 4.8 to 261.1 ng/kg. Approximately 29% of milk and yogurt samples had aflatoxin‐M1 higher than the EU regulatory limit of 50 ng/kg, whereas 20% of cheese samples were found to be contaminated at levels higher than the maximum limit of 250 ng/kg. These results can serve as the basis for pre‐ and postharvest approaches to reduce aflatoxin contamination in agricultural commodities in Burundi and Eastern DRC in order to reduce health risk, avoid reduced production in livestock, and open up export markets

A manual for large-scale sample collection, preservation, tracking, DNA extraction, and variety identification analysis

Several alternative options have been used for varietal identification. However most of the traditional methods have inherent uncertainty levels and estimates often have wide confidence intervals. In an attempt to circumvent traditional survey-based measurement errors in varietal identification, DNA-based varietal identification has been implemented in the Cassava Monitoring Survey (CMS) of Nigeria — a large adoption study involving 2500 cassava farming households. The DNA fingerprinting technique offers a reliable method to accurately identify varieties grown by farmers and increases accuracy and credibility in the interpretation of adoption rates and associated economic and policy analyses. Unlike phenotype-based methods, DNA is not affected by environmental conditions or plant growth stage and is more abundant than morphological descriptors. However, undertaking a credible DNA-based varietal identification is not a trivial matter because of the logistical challenges involving sample collection and tracking by a large team of field enumerators. This manual presents the detailed steps required for undertaking reliable DNA-fingerprinting-based identification of cassava varieties. In particular, the manual gives detailed information on the establishment of a sample tracking system, preparation of a readily available and cheap sample collection kit, field sample collection methodology, preparation of samples for DNA isolation, and development of a pipeline for variety identification analysis. This manual is part of the outputs of the CMS project funded by the CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA)