Forward and Inverse Modeling of the Emission and Transmission Spectrum of GJ 436b: Investigating Metal Enrichment, Tidal Heating, and Clouds

The Neptune-mass GJ 436b is one of the most-studied transiting exoplanets with repeated measurements of both its thermal emission and transmission spectra. We build on previous studies to answer outstanding questions about this planet, including its potentially high metallicity and tidal heating of its interior. We present new observations of GJ 436b's thermal emission at 3.6 and 4.5 micron, which reduce uncertainties in estimates of GJ 436b's flux at those wavelengths and demonstrate consistency between Spitzer observations spanning more than 7 years. We analyze the Spitzer thermal emission photometry and Hubble WFC3 transmission spectrum in tandem. We use a powerful dual-pronged modeling approach, comparing these data to both self-consistent and retrieval models. We vary the metallicity, intrinsic luminosity from tidal heating, disequilibrium chemistry, and heat redistribution. We also study the effect of clouds and photochemical hazes on the spectra, but do not find strong evidence for either. The self-consistent and retrieval modeling combine to suggest that GJ 436b has a high atmospheric metallicity, with best fits at or above several hundred times solar metallicity, tidal heating warming its interior with best-fit intrinsic effective effective temperatures around 300--350 K, and disequilibrium chemistry. High metal-enrichments (>600x solar) can only occur from the accretion of rocky, rather than icy, material. Assuming Tint~300--350 K, we find that Q'~2x10^5--10^6, larger than Neptune's Q', and implying a long tidal circularization timescale for the planet's orbit. We suggest that Neptune-mass planets may be a more diverse class than previously imagined, with metal-enhancements potentially spanning several orders of magnitude, to perhaps over 1000x solar metallicity. High fidelity observations with instruments like JWST will be critical for characterizing this diversity.Comment: 15 pages, 18 figures. Revised for publication in Ap

Exoplanet Classification and Yield Estimates for Direct Imaging Missions

Future NASA concept missions that are currently under study, like Habitable Exoplanet Imaging Mission (HabEx) & Large Ultra-Violet Optical Infra Red (LUVOIR) Surveyor, would discover a large diversity of exoplanets. We propose here a classification scheme that distinguishes exoplanets into different categories based on their size and incident stellar flux, for the purpose of providing the expected number of exoplanets observed (yield) with direct imaging missions. The boundaries of this classification can be computed using the known chemical behavior of gases and condensates at different pressures and temperatures in a planetary atmosphere. In this study, we initially focus on condensation curves for sphalerite ZnS, H2O, CO2 and CH4. The order in which these species condense in a planetary atmosphere define the boundaries between different classes of planets. Broadly, the planets are divided into rocky (0.5 - 1.0RE), super-Earths (1.0- 1.75RE), sub-Neptunes (1.75-3.5RE), sub-Jovians (3.5 - 6.0RE) and Jovians (6-14.3RE) based on their planet sizes, and 'hot', 'warm' and 'cold' based on the incident stellar flux. We then calculate planet occurrence rates within these boundaries for different kinds of exoplanets, \eta_{planet}, using the community co-ordinated results of NASA's Exoplanet Program Analysis Group's Science Analysis Group-13 (SAG-13). These occurrence rate estimates are in turn used to estimate the expected exoplanet yields for direct imaging missions of different telescope diameter.Comment: Accepted to Astrophysical Journal. 30 pages, 4 tables. Online tool for classification boundaries can be found at: http://www3.geosc.psu.edu/~ruk15/planets

Forward and Inverse Modeling of the Emission and Transmission Spectrum of GJ 436b: Investigating Metal Enrichment, Tidal Heating, and Clouds

The Neptune-mass GJ 436b is one of the most studied transiting exoplanets with repeated measurements of its thermal emission and transmission spectra. We build on previous studies to answer outstanding questions about this planet, including its potentially high metallicity and tidal heating of its interior. We present new observations of GJ 436b's thermal emission at 3.6 and 4.5 μm, which reduce uncertainties in estimates of GJ 436b's flux at those wavelengths and demonstrate consistency between Spitzer observations spanning more than 7 yr. We analyze the Spitzer thermal emission photometry and Hubble WFC3 transmission spectrum. We use a dual-pronged modeling approach of both self-consistent and retrieval models. We vary the metallicity, intrinsic luminosity from tidal heating, disequilibrium chemistry, and heat redistribution. We also study clouds and photochemical hazes, but do not find strong evidence for either. The self-consistent and retrieval models combine to suggest that GJ 436b has a high atmospheric metallicity, with best fits at or above several hundred times solar metallicity, tidal heating warming its interior with best-fit intrinsic effective temperatures around 300–350 K, and disequilibrium chemistry. High metal enrichments (>600× solar) occur from the accretion of rocky, rather than icy, material. Assuming the interior temperature T int ~ 300–350 K, we find a dissipation factor Q' ~ 2 × 10^5–10^6, larger than Neptune's Q', implying a long tidal circularization timescale for the orbit. We suggest that Neptune-mass planets may be more diverse than imagined, with metal enhancements spanning several orders of magnitude, to perhaps over 1000× solar metallicity. High-fidelity observations with instruments like the James Webb Space Telescope will be critical for characterizing this diversity

Do returns to education depend on how and whom you ask?

Returns to education remain an important parameter of interest in economic analysis. A large literature estimates these returns, often carefully addressing issues such as selection into wage employment and endogeneity in terms of completed schooling. There has been much less exploration of whether the estimates of Mincerian returns depend on how information about wage work is collected. Relying on a survey experiment in Tanzania, this paper finds that estimates of the returns to education vary by questionnaire design, but not by whether the information on employment and wages is self-reported or collected by a proxy respondent. The differences derived from questionnaire type are substantial, varying from higher returns of 5 percentage points among the most well educated men to 16 percentage points among the least well educated women. These differences are at magnitudes similar to the bias in ordinary least squares estimation, which receives considerable attention in the literature. The findings demonstrate that survey design matters in the estimation of returns to schooling and that care is needed in comparing across contexts and over time, particularly if the data are generated through different surveys

Exoplanet Diversity in the Era of Space-based Direct Imaging Missions

This whitepaper discusses the diversity of exoplanets that could be detected by future observations, so that comparative exoplanetology can be performed in the upcoming era of large space-based flagship missions. The primary focus will be on characterizing Earth-like worlds around Sun-like stars. However, we will also be able to characterize companion planets in the system simultaneously. This will not only provide a contextual picture with regards to our Solar system, but also presents a unique opportunity to observe size dependent planetary atmospheres at different orbital distances. We propose a preliminary scheme based on chemical behavior of gases and condensates in a planet's atmosphere that classifies them with respect to planetary radius and incident stellar flux.Comment: A white paper submitted to the National Academy of Sciences Exoplanet Science Strateg

The need for laboratory work to aid in the understanding of exoplanetary atmospheres

Advancements in our understanding of exoplanetary atmospheres, from massive gas giants down to rocky worlds, depend on the constructive challenges between observations and models. We are now on a clear trajectory for improvements in exoplanet observations that will revolutionize our ability to characterize the atmospheric structure, composition, and circulation of these worlds. These improvements stem from significant investments in new missions and facilities, such as JWST and the several planned ground-based extremely large telescopes. However, while exoplanet science currently has a wide range of sophisticated models that can be applied to the tide of forthcoming observations, the trajectory for preparing these models for the upcoming observational challenges is unclear. Thus, our ability to maximize the insights gained from the next generation of observatories is not certain. In many cases, uncertainties in a path towards model advancement stems from insufficiencies in the laboratory data that serve as critical inputs to atmospheric physical and chemical tools. We outline a number of areas where laboratory or ab initio investigations could fill critical gaps in our ability to model exoplanet atmospheric opacities, clouds, and chemistry. Specifically highlighted are needs for: (1) molecular opacity linelists with parameters for a diversity of broadening gases, (2) extended databases for collision-induced absorption and dimer opacities, (3) high spectral resolution opacity data for relevant molecular species, (4) laboratory studies of haze and condensate formation and optical properties, (5) significantly expanded databases of chemical reaction rates, and (6) measurements of gas photo-absorption cross sections at high temperatures. We hope that by meeting these needs, we can make the next two decades of exoplanet science as productive and insightful as the previous two decades.Publisher PD

Photochemistry of Exoplanet Atmospheres: Modelling alien chemistry accurately and self-consistently

Exoplanets offer unique physical and chemical laboratories experiencing entirely alien environments compared to the Solar System planets. Their atmospheres, governed by the same laws of physics, display remarkable diversity and complexity. They serve as the most complex planetary phenomena we can directly observe, coupled to the planet's interior processes, formation environment, the properties of the host star, and complex chemical ecosystems. The art of modelling these systems is a rich field of study, and in this work I study the nature of photochemical models and what understanding they can provide for us based on the quality and breadth of their inputs. By characterizing the implicit uncertainty chemical models have without a well-characterized host star, I quantify the importance of host star characterization to chemical modelling, showing their sensitivity under different reaction schemes and microphysical models. I then apply this to recent observations of known exoplanet host stars LHS 3844 and AU Microscopii. Finally, I cover work to model sub-Neptune atmospheres across a wide parameter space aimed at understanding the influence of a planet's environment and unknowns on haze formation and observational prevalence in emission and transmission spectroscopy