Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective (e.g., statistical) verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, it is not usually sufficient for quantifying the value of the overall contribution of the model to the weather-forecasting process. This is especially true for mesoscale models with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution that may be capable of predicting meteorologically consistent, though not necessarily accurate, fine-scale weather phenomena. Therefore, subjective (phenomenological) evaluation, focusing on selected case studies and specific weather features, such as sea breezes and precipitation, has been performed to help quantify the added value that cannot be inferred solely from objective evaluation

Cost-Effectiveness of Newborn Circumcision in Reducing Lifetime HIV Risk among U.S. Males

BACKGROUND: HIV incidence was substantially lower among circumcised versus uncircumcised heterosexual African men in three clinical trials. Based on those findings, we modeled the potential effect of newborn male circumcision on a U.S. male's lifetime risk of HIV, including associated costs and quality-adjusted life-years saved. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Given published estimates of U.S. males' lifetime HIV risk, we calculated the fraction of lifetime risk attributable to heterosexual behavior from 2005-2006 HIV surveillance data. We assumed 60% efficacy of circumcision in reducing heterosexually-acquired HIV over a lifetime, and varied efficacy in sensitivity analyses. We calculated differences in lifetime HIV risk, expected HIV treatment costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) among circumcised versus uncircumcised males. The main outcome measure was cost per HIV-related QALY saved. Circumcision reduced the lifetime HIV risk among all males by 15.7% in the base case analysis, ranging from 7.9% for white males to 20.9% for black males. Newborn circumcision was a cost-saving HIV prevention intervention for all, black and Hispanic males. The net cost of newborn circumcision per QALY saved was $87,792 for white males. Results were most sensitive to the discount rate, and circumcision efficacy and cost. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Newborn circumcision resulted in lower expected HIV-related treatment costs and a slight increase in QALYs. It reduced the 1.87% lifetime risk of HIV among all males by about 16%. The effect varied substantially by race and ethnicity. Racial and ethnic groups who could benefit the most from circumcision may have least access to it due to insurance coverage and state Medicaid policies, and these financial barriers should be addressed. More data on the long-term protective effect of circumcision on heterosexual males as well as on its efficacy in preventing HIV among MSM would be useful

Towards a Non-Relativistic Holographic Superfluid

We explore the phase structure of a holographic toy model of superfluid states in non-relativistic conformal field theories. At low background mass density, we find a familiar second-order transition to a superfluid phase at finite temperature. Increasing the chemical potential for the probe charge density drives this transition strongly first order as the low-temperature superfluid phase merges with a thermodynamically disfavored high-temperature condensed phase. At high background mass density, the system reenters the normal phase as the temperature is lowered further, hinting at a zero-temperature quantum phase transition as the background density is varied. Given the unusual thermodynamics of the background black hole, however, it seems likely that the true ground state is another configuration altogether.Comment: 13+5 pages, late

Clinical prevalence of Lewy body dementia.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) and dementia in Parkinson's disease (PDD) in routine clinical practice is unclear. Prevalence rates observed in clinical and population-based cohorts and neuropathological studies vary greatly. Small sample sizes and methodological factors in these studies limit generalisability to clinical practice. METHODS: We investigated prevalence in a case series across nine secondary care services over an 18-month period, to determine how commonly DLB and PDD cases are diagnosed and reviewed within two regions of the UK. RESULTS: Patients with DLB comprised 4.6% (95% CI 4.0-5.2%) of all dementia cases. DLB was represented in a significantly higher proportion of dementia cases in services in the North East (5.6%) than those in East Anglia (3.3%; χ2 = 13.6, p < 0.01). DLB prevalence in individual services ranged from 2.4 to 5.9%. PDD comprised 9.7% (95% CI 8.3-11.1%) of Parkinson's disease cases. No significant variation in PDD prevalence was observed between regions or between services. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the frequency of clinical diagnosis of DLB varied between geographical regions in the UK, and that the prevalence of both DLB and PDD was much lower than would be expected in this case series, suggesting considerable under-diagnosis of both disorders. The significant variation in DLB diagnostic rates between these two regions may reflect true differences in disease prevalence, but more likely differences in diagnostic practice. The systematic introduction of more standardised diagnostic practice could improve the rates of diagnosis of both conditions

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank

Substantiating a political public sphere in the Scottish press : a comparative analysis

This article uses content analysis to characterize the performance of the media in a national public sphere, by setting apart those qualities that typify internal press coverage of a political event. The article looks at the coverage of the 1999 devolved Scottish election from the day before the election until the day after. It uses a word count to measure the election material in Scottish newspapers the Herald, the Press and Journal and the Scotsman, and United Kingdom newspapers the Guardian, the Independent and The Times, and categorizes that material according to discourse type, day and page selection. The article finds a number of qualities that typify the Scottish sample in particular, and might be broadly indicative of a political public sphere in action. Firstly, and not unexpectedly, it finds that the Scottish newspapers carry significantly more election coverage. Just as tellingly, though, the article finds that the Scottish papers offer a greater proportion of advice and background information, in the form of opinion columns and feature articles. It also finds that the Scottish papers place a greater concentration of both informative and evaluative material in the period before the vote, consistent with their making a contribution to informed political action. Lastly, the article finds that the Scottish sample situates coverage nearer the front of the paper and places a greater proportion on recto pages. The article therefore argues that the Scottish papers display features that distinguish them from the UK papers, and are broadly consistent with their forming part of a deliberative public sphere, and suggests that these qualities might be explored as a means of judging future media performance