Linking ENSO to Synoptic Weather Systems in Eastern Australia

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual east Australian rainfall variability, but its link with rain-producing synoptic weather systems is unclear. By tracking low pressure systems in ERA5 over 1979 to 2021, we find that springtime cyclones are linked to variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation during ENSO events. On spring days with a cyclone during La Niña, a pressure dipole occurs with a strong anticyclonic anomaly southeast of Australia and a cyclonic anomaly over eastern Australia. The northeasterly circulation directs tropical moisture toward eastern Australia, and coupled with induced ascent, promotes rainfall in this region. Both dynamical and thermodynamical changes are important for the rainfall response. An almost opposite circulation response occurs on cyclone days during El Niño events: high-pressure over the Australian continent reduces rainfall in eastern Australia. These synoptic setups resemble the seasonal-mean Rossby wave teleconnections, indicating a link between weather systems and ENSO

Future changes to the upper ocean Western Boundary Currents across two generations of climate models

Western Boundary Currents (WBCs) are important for the oceanic transport of heat, dissolved gases and nutrients. They can affect regional climate and strongly influence the dispersion and distribution of marine species. Using state-of-the-art climate models from the latest and previous Climate Model Intercomparison Projects, we evaluate upper ocean circulation and examine future projections, focusing on subtropical and low-latitude WBCs. Despite their coarse resolution, climate models successfully reproduce most large-scale circulation features with ensemble mean transports typically within the range of observational uncertainty, although there is often a large spread across the models and some currents are systematically too strong or weak. Despite considerable differences in model structure, resolution and parameterisations, many currents show highly consistent projected changes across the models. For example, the East Australian Current, Brazil Current and Agulhas Current extensions are projected to intensify, while the Gulf Stream, Indonesian Throughflow and Agulhas Current are projected to weaken. Intermodel differences in most future circulation changes can be explained in part by projected changes in the large-scale surface winds. In moving to the latest model generation, despite structural model advancements, we find little systematic improvement in the simulation of ocean transports nor major differences in the projected changes

CMIP5 Intermodel Relationships in the Baseline Southern Ocean Climate System and With Future Projections

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordClimate models exhibit a broad range in the simulated properties of the climate system. In the early historical period, the absolute global mean surface air temperature in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) models spans a range of ~12-15 °C. Other climate variables may be linked to global mean temperature, and so accurate representation of the baseline climate state is crucial for meaningful future climate projections. In CMIP5 baseline climate states, statistically significant intermodel correlations between Southern Ocean surface temperature, outgoing shortwave radiation, cloudiness, the position of the mid-latitude eddy-driven jet, and Antarctic sea ice area are found. The baseline temperature relationships extend to projected future changes in the same set of variables. The tendency for models with initially cooler Southern Ocean to exhibit more global warming, and vice versa for initially warmer models, is linked to baseline Southern Ocean climate system biases. Some of these intermodel correlations arise due to a ‘capacity for change’. For example, models with more sea ice initially have greater capacity to lose sea ice as the planet warms, whereas models with little sea ice initially are constrained in the amount they can lose. Similar constraints apply to Southern Ocean clouds, which are projected to reduce under radiative forcing, and the jet latitude, which is projected to migrate poleward. A first look at emerging data from CMIP6 reveals a shift of the relationship from the Southern Ocean towards the Antarctic region, possibly due to reductions in Southern Ocean biases, such westerly wind representation.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans ResearchAustralian Government National Environmental Science ProgramAustralian Research Council (ARC

Enhanced climate instability in the North Atlantic and southern Europe during the Last Interglacial.

Considerable ambiguity remains over the extent and nature of millennial/centennial-scale climate instability during the Last Interglacial (LIG). Here we analyse marine and terrestrial proxies from a deep-sea sediment sequence on the Portuguese Margin and combine results with an intensively dated Italian speleothem record and climate-model experiments. The strongest expression of climate variability occurred during the transitions into and out of the LIG. Our records also document a series of multi-centennial intra-interglacial arid events in southern Europe, coherent with cold water-mass expansions in the North Atlantic. The spatial and temporal fingerprints of these changes indicate a reorganization of ocean surface circulation, consistent with low-intensity disruptions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The amplitude of this LIG variability is greater than that observed in Holocene records. Episodic Greenland ice melt and runoff as a result of excess warmth may have contributed to AMOC weakening and increased climate instability throughout the LIG

Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwaves events

Prolonged high-temperature extreme events in the ocean, marine heatwaves, can have severe and long-lasting impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries and associated services. This study applies a marine heatwave framework to analyse a global sea surface temperature product and identify the most extreme events, based on their intensity, duration and spatial extent. Many of these events have yet to be described in terms of their physical attributes, generation mechanisms, or ecological impacts. Our synthesis identifies commonalities between marine heatwave characteristics and seasonality, links to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, triggering processes and impacts on ocean productivity. The most intense events preferentially occur in summer, when climatological oceanic mixed layers are shallow and winds are weak, but at a time preceding climatological maximum sea surface temperatures. Most subtropical extreme marine heatwaves were triggered by persistent atmospheric high-pressure systems and anomalously weak wind speeds, associated with increased insolation, and reduced ocean heat losses. Furthermore, the most extreme events tended to coincide with reduced chlorophyll-a concentration at low and mid-latitudes. Understanding the importance of the oceanic background state, local and remote drivers and the ocean productivity response from past events are critical steps toward improving predictions of future marine heatwaves and their impacts

Evaluating ENSO teleconnections using observations and CMIP5 models

Bias correction of global and regional climate models is essential for credible climate change projections. This study examines the bias of the models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in their simulation of the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SSTs) in different phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their teleconnections—highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the models in different oceanic sectors. The comparison between the model outputs and the observations focused on the following three features: (i) the typical horseshoe pattern seen in the Pacific Ocean during ENSO events with anomalies in SSTs opposite to the warm/cool tongue, (ii) different signature in the tropical Pacific Ocean from that of the North and tropical Atlantic Ocean, and (iii) spurious signature in the southern hemisphere beyond 45° S. Using these three cases, it was found that the model simulations poorly matched the observations, indicating that more attention is needed on the tropical/extratropical teleconnections associated with ENSO. More importantly, the observed SST coupling between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean is missing in almost all models, and differentiating the models between high/low top did not improve the results. It also found that SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean are relatively well simulated when compared with observation. This work has improved our understanding of the simulation of ENSO and its teleconnections in the CMIP5 models and has raised awareness of the bias existing in the models, which requires further attention by climate modellers. © 2018 The Author(s