River Discharge

In 2014, combined discharge from the eight largest Arctic rivers (2,487 km3) was 10% greater than average discharge for the period 1980-1989. Values for 2013 (2,282 km3) and 2012 (2,240 km3) were 1% greater than and 1% less than the 1980-1989 average, respectively. For the first seven months of 2015, the combined discharge for the six largest Eurasian Arctic rivers shows that peak discharge was 10% greater and five days earlier than the 1980-1989 average for those months

Developing the MTO Formalism

We review the simple linear muffin-tin orbital method in the atomic-spheres approximation and a tight-binding representation (TB-LMTO-ASA method), and show how it can be generalized to an accurate and robust Nth order muffin-tin orbital (NMTO) method without increasing the size of the basis set and without complicating the formalism. On the contrary, downfolding is now more efficient and the formalism is simpler and closer to that of screened multiple-scattering theory. The NMTO method allows one to solve the single-electron Schroedinger equation for a MT-potential -in which the MT-wells may overlap- using basis sets which are arbitrarily minimal. The substantial increase in accuracy over the LMTO-ASA method is achieved by substitution of the energy-dependent partial waves by so-called kinked partial waves, which have tails attached to them, and by using these kinked partial waves at N+1 arbitrary energies to construct the set of NMTOs. For N=1 and the two energies chosen infinitesimally close, the NMTOs are simply the 3rd-generation LMTOs. Increasing N, widens the energy window, inside which accurate results are obtained, and increases the range of the orbitals, but it does not increase the size of the basis set and therefore does not change the number of bands obtained. The price for reducing the size of the basis set through downfolding, is a reduction in the number of bands accounted for and -unless N is increased- a narrowing of the energy window inside which these bands are accurate. A method for obtaining orthonormal NMTO sets is given and several applications are presented.Comment: 85 pages, Latex2e, Springer style, to be published in: Lecture notes in Physics, edited by H. Dreysse, (Springer Verlag

Third-Generation TB-LMTO

We describe the screened Korringa-Kohn-Rostoker (KKR) method and the third-generation linear muffin-tin orbital (LMTO) method for solving the single-particle Schroedinger equation for a MT potential. The simple and popular formalism which previously resulted from the atomic-spheres approximation (ASA) now holds in general, that is, it includes downfolding and the combined correction. Downfolding to few-orbital, possibly short-ranged, low-energy, and possibly orthonormal Hamiltonians now works exceedingly well, as is demonstrated for a high-temperature superconductor. First-principles sp3 and sp3d5 TB Hamiltonians for the valence and lowest conduction bands of silicon are derived. Finally, we prove that the new method treats overlap of the potential wells correctly to leading order and we demonstrate how this can be exploited to get rid of the empty spheres in the diamond structure.Comment: latex2e, 32 printed pages, Postscript figs, to be published in: Tight-Binding Approach to Computational Materials Science, MRS Symposia Proceedings No. 491 (MRS, Pittsburgh, 1998

Implementation research for the prevention of antimicrobial resistance and healthcare-associated infections; 2017 Geneva infection prevention and control (IPC)-think tank (part 1)

Background Around 5–15% of all hospital patients worldwide suffer from healthcare-associated infections (HAIs), and years of excessive antimicrobial use in human and animal medicine have created emerging antimicrobial resistance (AMR). A considerable amount of evidence-based measures have been published to address these challenges, but the largest challenge seems to be their implementation. Methods In June 2017, a total of 42 experts convened at the Geneva IPC-Think Tank to discuss four domains in implementation science: 1) teaching implementation skills; 2) fostering implementation of IPC and antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) by policy making; 3) national/international actions to foster implementation skills; and 4) translational research bridging social sciences and clinical research in infection prevention and control (IPC) and AMR. Results Although neglected in the past, implementation skills have become a priority in IPC and AMS. They should now be part of any curriculum in health care, and IPC career paths should be created. Guidelines and policies should be aligned with each other and evidence-based, each document providing a section on implementing elements of IPC and AMS in patient care. International organisations should be advocates for IPC and AMS, framing them as patient safety issues and emphasizing the importance of implementation skills. Healthcare authorities at the national level should adopt a similar approach and provide legal frameworks, guidelines, and resources to allow better implementation of patient safety measures in IPC and AMS. Rather than repeating effectiveness studies in every setting, we should invest in methods to improve the implementation of evidence-based measures in different healthcare contexts. For this, we need to encourage and financially support collaborations between social sciences and clinical IPC research. Conclusions Experts of the 2017 Geneva Think Tank on IPC and AMS, CDC, and WHO agreed that sustained efforts on implementation of IPC and AMS strategies are required at international, country, and hospital management levels, to provide an adequate multimodal framework that addresses (not exclusively) leadership, resources, education and training for implementing IPC and AMS. Future strategies can build on this agreement to make strategies on IPC and AMS more effective

Autonomous detection and anticipation of jam fronts from messages propagated by inter-vehicle communication

In this paper, a minimalist, completely distributed freeway traffic information system is introduced. It involves an autonomous, vehicle-based jam front detection, the information transmission via inter-vehicle communication, and the forecast of the spatial position of jam fronts by reconstructing the spatiotemporal traffic situation based on the transmitted information. The whole system is simulated with an integrated traffic simulator, that is based on a realistic microscopic traffic model for longitudinal movements and lane changes. The function of its communication module has been explicitly validated by comparing the simulation results with analytical calculations. By means of simulations, we show that the algorithms for a congestion-front recognition, message transmission, and processing predict reliably the existence and position of jam fronts for vehicle equipment rates as low as 3%. A reliable mode of operation already for small market penetrations is crucial for the successful introduction of inter-vehicle communication. The short-term prediction of jam fronts is not only useful for the driver, but is essential for enhancing road safety and road capacity by intelligent adaptive cruise control systems.Comment: Published in the Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board 200

Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events

Many climate studies assess trends and projections in heavy precipitation events using precipitation percentile (or quantile) indices. Here we investigate three different percentile indices that are commonly used. We demonstrate that these may produce very different results and thus require great care with interpretation. More specifically, consideration is given to two intensity-based indices and one frequency-based index, namely (a) all-day percentiles, (b) wet-day percentiles, and (c) frequency indices based on the exceedance of a percentile threshold. Wet-day percentiles are conditionally computed for the subset of wet events (with precipitation exceeding some threshold, e.g. 1 mm/d for daily precipitation). We present evidence that this commonly used methodology can lead to artifacts and misleading results if significant changes in the wet-day frequency are not accounted for. Percentile threshold indices measure the frequency of exceedance with respect to a percentile-based threshold. We show that these indices yield an assessment of changes in heavy precipitation events that is qualitatively consistent with all-day percentiles, but there are substantial differences in quantitative terms. We discuss the reasons for these effects, present a theoretical assessment, and provide a series of examples using global and regional climate models to quantify the effects in typical applications. Application to climate model output shows that these considerations are relevant to a wide range of typical climate-change applications. In particular, wet-day percentiles generally yield different results, and in most instances should not be used for the impact-oriented assessment of changes in heavy precipitation events

Reassessing changes in diurnal temperature range: Intercomparison and evaluation of existing global data set estimates

Changes in diurnal temperature range (DTR) over global land areas are compared from a broad range of independent data sets. All data sets agree that global-mean DTR has decreased significantly since 1950, with most of that decrease occurring over 1960–1980. The since-1979 trends are not significant, with inter-data set disagreement even over the sign of global changes. Inter-data set spread becomes greater regionally and in particular at the grid box level. Despite this, there is general agreement that DTR decreased in North America, Europe, and Australia since 1951, with this decrease being partially reversed over Australia and Europe since the early 1980s. There is substantive disagreement between data sets prior to the middle of the twentieth century, particularly over Europe, which precludes making any meaningful conclusions about DTR changes prior to 1950, either globally or regionally. Several variants that undertake a broad range of approaches to postprocessing steps of gridding and interpolation were analyzed for two of the data sets. These choices have a substantial influence in data sparse regions or periods. The potential of further insights is therefore inextricably linked with the efficacy of data rescue and digitization for maximum and minimum temperature series prior to 1950 everywhere and in data sparse regions throughout the period of record. Over North America, station selection and homogeneity assessment is the primary determinant. Over Europe, where the basic station data are similar, the postprocessing choices are dominant. We assess that globally averaged DTR has decreased since the middle twentieth century but that this decrease has not been linear