Do investors react negatively to democratic elections in emerging markets? [abstract]

Abstract only availableIn 2002, Brazil's bond market fell dramatically at the same time that Brazilian citizens prepared to vote for the left-leaning President Lula. This event prompted political scientists to question why investors reacted so strongly to the Brazilian democratic election. Since then, the common agreement among the discipline has reported that the Brazilian case is not an anomaly, and that investors in emerging market countries do react negatively during election cycles. However, this research suggests that there is no empirical evidence to defend that hypothesis. When comparing the bond spreads of 12 different emerging market countries from 1994 to 2004 during non-election cycles to the countries' bond spreads during a sample of 26 election cycles, there is only a slightly significant effect. Moreover, that effect becomes even less significant when various effects are controlled for. However, this research does find a significant effect in 4 out of the 26 elections. One of these elections is the 2002 Brazilian election of President Lula. Thus, although investors may react negatively to elections in some emerging market countries, there does not seem to be significant evidence to suggest that elections have an effect on bond markets.MU Undergraduate Research Scholars Progra

Observable Properties of Orbits in Exact Bumpy Spacetimes

We explore the properties of test-particle orbits in "bumpy" spacetimes - stationary, reflection-symmetric, asymptotically flat solutions of Einstein equations that have a non-Kerr (anomalous) higher-order multipole-moment structure but can be tuned arbitrarily close to the Kerr metric. Future detectors should observe gravitational waves generated during inspirals of compact objects into supermassive central bodies. If the central body deviates from the Kerr metric, this will manifest itself in the emitted waves. Here, we explore some of the features of orbits in non-Kerr spacetimes that might lead to observable signatures. As a basis for this analysis, we use a family of exact solutions proposed by Manko & Novikov which deviate from the Kerr metric in the quadrupole and higher moments, but we also compare our results to other work in the literature. We examine isolating integrals of the orbits and find that the majority of geodesic orbits have an approximate fourth constant of the motion (in addition to the energy, angular momentum and rest mass) and the resulting orbits are tri-periodic to high precision. We also find that this fourth integral can be lost for certain orbits in some oblately deformed Manko-Novikov spacetimes. However, compact objects will probably not end up on these chaotic orbits in nature. We compute the location of the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO) and find that the behavior of orbtis near the ISCO can be qualitatively different depending on whether the ISCO is determined by the onset of an instability in the radial or vertical direction. Finally, we compute periapsis and orbital-plane precessions for nearly circular and nearly equatorial orbits in both the strong and weak field, and discuss weak-field precessions for eccentric equatorial orbits.Comment: 42 pages, 20 figures, accepted by Phys. Rev. D, v2 has minor changes to make it consistent with published versio

Gravitational waves from intermediate-mass-ratio inspirals for ground-based detectors

We explore the prospects for Advanced LIGO to detect gravitational waves from neutron stars and stellar mass black holes spiraling into intermediate-mass ($M\sim 50 M_\odot$ to $350 M_\odot$) black holes. We estimate an event rate for such \emph{intermediate-mass-ratio inspirals} (IMRIs) of up to $\sim 10$--$30 \mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. Our numerical simulations show that if the central body is not a black hole but its metric is stationary, axisymmetric, reflection symmetric and asymptotically flat then the waves will likely be tri-periodic, as for a black hole. We report generalizations of a theorem due to Ryan (1995) which suggest that the evolutions of the waves' three fundamental frequencies and of the complex amplitudes of their spectral components encode (in principle) a full map of the central body's metric, full details of the energy and angular momentum exchange between the central body and the orbit, and the time-evolving orbital elements. We estimate that Advanced LIGO can measure or constrain deviations of the central body from a Kerr black hole with modest but interesting accuracy.Comment: Accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter

Approach to ergodicity in quantum wave functions

According to theorems of Shnirelman and followers, in the semiclassical limit the quantum wavefunctions of classically ergodic systems tend to the microcanonical density on the energy shell. We here develop a semiclassical theory that relates the rate of approach to the decay of certain classical fluctuations. For uniformly hyperbolic systems we find that the variance of the quantum matrix elements is proportional to the variance of the integral of the associated classical operator over trajectory segments of length $T_H$, and inversely proportional to $T_H^2$, where $T_H=h\bar\rho$ is the Heisenberg time, $\bar\rho$ being the mean density of states. Since for these systems the classical variance increases linearly with $T_H$, the variance of the matrix elements decays like $1/T_H$. For non-hyperbolic systems, like Hamiltonians with a mixed phase space and the stadium billiard, our results predict a slower decay due to sticking in marginally unstable regions. Numerical computations supporting these conclusions are presented for the bakers map and the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field.Comment: 11 pages postscript and 4 figures in two files, tar-compressed and uuencoded using uufiles, to appear in Phys Rev E. For related papers, see http://www.icbm.uni-oldenburg.de/icbm/kosy/ag.htm

Unhealthy Landscapes: Policy Recommendations on Land Use Change and Infectious Disease Emergence

Anthropogenic land use changes drive a range of infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events and modify the transmission of endemic infections. These drivers include agricultural encroachment, deforestation, road construction, dam building, irrigation, wetland modification, mining, the concentration or expansion of urban environments, coastal zone degradation, and other activities. These changes in turn cause a cascade of factors that exacerbate infectious disease emergence, such as forest fragmentation, disease introduction, pollution, poverty, and human migration. The Working Group on Land Use Change and Disease Emergence grew out of a special colloquium that convened international experts in infectious diseases, ecology, and environmental health to assess the current state of knowledge and to develop recommendations for addressing these environmental health challenges. The group established a systems model approach and priority lists of infectious diseases affected by ecologic degradation. Policy-relevant levels of the model include specific health risk factors, landscape or habitat change, and institutional (economic and behavioral) levels. The group recommended creating Centers of Excellence in Ecology and Health Research and Training, based at regional universities and/or research institutes with close links to the surrounding communities. The centers’ objectives would be 3-fold: a) to provide information to local communities about the links between environmental change and public health; b) to facilitate fully interdisciplinary research from a variety of natural, social, and health sciences and train professionals who can conduct interdisciplinary research; and c) to engage in science-based communication and assessment for policy making toward sustainable health and ecosystems

Clinical Sequencing Exploratory Research Consortium: Accelerating Evidence-Based Practice of Genomic Medicine

Despite rapid technical progress and demonstrable effectiveness for some types of diagnosis and therapy, much remains to be learned about clinical genome and exome sequencing (CGES) and its role within the practice of medicine. The Clinical Sequencing Exploratory Research (CSER) consortium includes 18 extramural research projects, one National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI) intramural project, and a coordinating center funded by the NHGRI and National Cancer Institute. The consortium is exploring analytic and clinical validity and utility, as well as the ethical, legal, and social implications of sequencing via multidisciplinary approaches; it has thus far recruited 5,577 participants across a spectrum of symptomatic and healthy children and adults by utilizing both germline and cancer sequencing. The CSER consortium is analyzing data and creating publically available procedures and tools related to participant preferences and consent, variant classification, disclosure and management of primary and secondary findings, health outcomes, and integration with electronic health records. Future research directions will refine measures of clinical utility of CGES in both germline and somatic testing, evaluate the use of CGES for screening in healthy individuals, explore the penetrance of pathogenic variants through extensive phenotyping, reduce discordances in public databases of genes and variants, examine social and ethnic disparities in the provision of genomics services, explore regulatory issues, and estimate the value and downstream costs of sequencing. The CSER consortium has established a shared community of research sites by using diverse approaches to pursue the evidence-based development of best practices in genomic medicine

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead