Accommodation of transpressional strain in the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone: new constraints from (U-Th)/He thermochronology in the Alborz mountains, north Iran

The Alborz range of N Iran provides key information on the spatiotemporal evolution and characteristics of the Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone. The southwestern Alborz range constitutes a transpressional duplex, which accommodates oblique shortening between Central Iran and the South Caspian Basin. The duplex comprises NW-striking frontal ramps that are kinematically linked to inherited E-W-striking, right-stepping lateral to obliquely oriented ramps. New zircon and apatite (U-Th)/He data provide a high-resolution framework to unravel the evolution of collisional tectonics in this region. Our data record two pulses of fast cooling associated with SW-directed thrusting across the frontal ramps at ~ 18–14 and 9.5-7.5 Ma, resulting in the tectonic repetition of a fossil zircon partial retention zone and a cooling pattern with a half U-shaped geometry. Uniform cooling ages of ~ 7–6 Ma along the southernmost E-W striking oblique ramp and across its associated NW-striking frontal ramps suggests that the ramp was reactivated as a master throughgoing, N-dipping thrust. We interpret this major change in fault kinematics and deformation style to be related to a change in the shortening direction from NE to N/NNE. The reduction in the obliquity of thrusting may indicate the termination of strike-slip faulting (and possibly thrusting) across the Iranian Plateau, which could have been triggered by an increase in elevation. Furthermore, we suggest that ~ 7-6-m.y.-old S-directed thrusting predated inception of the westward motion of the South Caspian Basin

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Kinematic links between the Eastern Mosha Fault and the North Tehran Fault, Alborz range, northern Iran

Kinematic interaction of faults is an important issue for detailed seismic hazard assessments in seismically active regions. The Eastern Mosha Fault (EMF) and the North Tehran Fault (NTF) are two major active faults of the southern central Alborz mountains, located in proximity of Tehran (population ~ 9 million). We used field, geomorphological and paleoseismological data to explore the kinematic transition between the faults, and compare their short-term and long-term history of activity. We introduce the Niknamdeh segment of the NTF along which the strike-slip kinematics of EMF is transferred onto the NTF, and which is also responsible for the development of a pull-apart basin between the eastern segments of the NTF. The Ira trench site at the linkage zone between the two faults reveals the history of interaction between rock avalanches, active faulting and sag-pond development. The kinematic continuity between the EMF and NTF requires updating of seismic hazard models for the NTF, the most active fault adjacent to the Tehran Metropolis. Study of offsets of large-scale morphological features along the EMF, and comparison with estimated slip rates along the fault indicates that the EMF has started its left-lateral kinematics between 3.2 and 4.7. Ma. According to our paleoseismological data and the morphology of the nearby EMF and NTF, we suggest minimum and maximum values of about 1.8 and 3.0. mm/year for the left-lateral kinematics on the two faults in their linkage zone, averaged over Holocene time scales. Our study provides a partial interpretation, based on available data, for the fault activity in northeastern Tehran region, which may be completed with studies of other active faults of the region to evaluate a more realistic seismic hazard analysis for this heavily populated major city. © 2014 Elsevier B.V

Middle to late Miocene Middle Eastern climate from stable oxygen and carbon isotope data, southern Alborz mountains, N Iran

The Alborz mountains of northern Iran intercept and divert the northern hemisphere westerlies carrying moisture from the Mediterranean and Black Sea, and form an orographic barrier to moisture sourced to the north in the Caspian Sea. This implies that terrestrial deposits along the southern Alborz mountains (leeward side of northerly winds and windward side of westerlies with the respect to Tibet and other mountainous terrain in the Himalayan-Karakoram realm) potentially track changes in past moisture and erosional regimes and mirror rainfall patterns. Here, we present results of a stable isotope analysis and clay mineral study of the Miocene (ca. 17.5-7.6. Ma) Upper Red Formation in the foreland of the southern Alborz mountains. The changes recorded by stable oxygen and carbon isotope data from pedogenic and lacustrine/palustrine carbonate in the southern Alborz mountains suggest: 1) an increase in aridity possibly related to the evolution of the Alborz orographic rain shadow, which became more efficient between 17.5 and 13.2. Ma; 2) a steady increase in precipitation between 13.2 and 10.3. Ma with a significant increase in rainout along the southern slope of the Alborz mountains between 11 and 10.3. Ma, possibly related to perturbations in atmospheric circulation pattern in the northern hemisphere as suggested by coeval wetter phases in southern Europe; and 3) a decrease in aridity from ca. 9.6 to 7.6. Ma, possibly reflecting an increase in the seasonality of precipitation. Based on environmental and climatic changes observed across southern Asia and India starting from ca. 10. Ma, we speculate that the topographic evolution of the Himalayan-Tibetan system might have affected the late Miocene climate in Middle East. © 2010 Elsevier B.V

Arabia-Eurasia continental collision: Insights from late Tertiary foreland-basin evolution in the Alborz Mountains, Northern Iran

A poorly understood lag time of 15-20 m.y. exists between the initial Arabia-Eurasia continental collision in late Eocene to early Oligocene time and the acceleration of tectonic and sedimentary processes across the collision zone in the early to late Miocene. The late Eocene to Miocene-Pliocene clastic and shallow-marine sedimentary rocks of the Kond, Eyvanekey, and Semnan Basins in the Alborz Mountains (northern Iran) offer the possibility to track the evolution of this orogen in the framework of collision processes. A transition from volcaniclastic submarine deposits to shallow-marine evaporites and terrestrial sediments occurred shortly after 36 Ma in association with reversals in sediment provenance, strata tilting, and erosional unroofing. These events followed the termination of subduction arc magmatism and marked a changeover from an extensional to a contractional regime in response to initiation of continental collision with the subduction of stretched Arabian lithosphere. This early stage of collision produced topographic relief associated with shallow foreland basins, suggesting that shortening and tectonic loading occurred at low rates. Starting from the early Miocene (17.5 Ma), fl exural subsidence in response to foreland basin initiation occurred. Fast sediment accumulation rates and erosional unroofing trends point to acceleration of shortening by the early Miocene. We suggest that the lag time between the initiation of continental collision (36 Ma) and the acceleration of regional deformation (20-17.5 Ma) reflects a two-stage collision process, involving the "soft" collision of stretched lithosphere at first and "hard" collision following the arrival of unstretched Arabian continental litho sphere in the subduction zone. © 2011 Geological Society of America

Tectonic control on sedimentary facies pattern and sediment accumulation rates in the Miocene foreland basin of the southern Alborz mountains, northern Iran

The southern Alborz mountains of northern Iran are an integral part of the Arabia/Eurasia collision zone. A magnetostratigraphic and rock magnetic investigation of the Eyvanekey stratigraphic section in the southern Alborz mountains reveals the spatiotemporal character of sedimentary facies migration in the Alborz foreland basin. The section constitutes three coarsening upward units (units 1, 2, and 3), comprising the Upper Red and Hezardarreh formations. Our data reveal that the Upper Red Formation was deposited between 17.5 and 7.5 Ma, while the depositional age of the top of the Hezardarreh Formation can be extrapolated to ∼6.2 Ma. Slow sediment accumulation rates correlate with sedimentary facies comprising prograding, coarsening-upward units. This is likely the result of intraforeland uplift (units 1 and 2) and basin inversion, probably associated with a growth syncline located in the proximal foreland (unit 3). In contrast, fine-grained strata at the bottom of each cycle are associated with faster sediment accumulation rates, testifying to enhanced flexural basin subsidence in the course of thrust loading. Progradation of coarse-grained facies also occurred during relatively fast sediment accumulation (top of unit 2), suggesting that the influx of coarse-grained sediment outpaced the storage capacity of the proximal foreland. Thus, despite an overall southward propagation of deformation into the southern Alborz foreland, the locus of active deformation must have migrated back and forth on a time scale of circa 0.7 to 2 Ma. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union