Site Condition Assessments of Welsh SAC and SSSI Standing Water Features

This report was commissioned by the Countryside Council for Wales (CCW) in 2005 and provides an assessment of the conservation status of Welsh Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) and Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs). It details the site condition assessments of 43 individual standing water features and provides overall assessments of the 13 SACs and 11 SSSIs in which they lie. Site condition is assessed using Common Standards Monitoring (CSM) methods, where specific habitat feature attributes are assessed against targets corresponding to ‘favourable’ condition. To make these assessments, data from CCW Contract Science Report no. 704 (Goldsmith et al. 2006) is employed, alongside further chemical and biological data collected by ENSIS Ltd. and the Environment Agency (EA) between 2003-2005. Data from previous reports and surveys is also utilised where available to provide a longer-term perspective and possible evidence of trends. The results of the site condition assessments are discussed in terms of general categories of impact (e.g. acidification or eutrophication). Where sites were in unfavourable condition, recommendations for further investigation and / or management are made. Reference is also made to Water Framework Directive (WFD) Risk Assessments and some attempt is made to relate condition assessment outcomes to the probability of sites failing to meet good ecological status by 2015 in accordance with the objectives of Article 4 of the WFD. Condition assessments for the oligotrophic to mesotrophic Welsh lake SACs (23 lakes) and SSSIs (7 lakes) with vegetation of the Littorelletea uniflorae and / or of the IsoëtoNanojuncetea, indicate that approximately 80 % of lakes of this type are currently in ‘unfavourable’ (60 %) or ‘unfavourable, recovering’ (20 %) condition. Only one SAC - Cadair Idris (3 lakes) – and three lakes within two other SACs are classified as ‘favourable’. Acidification is the primary reason for failure to meet favourable condition targets, particularly for SAC lakes. The recovery trends observed at a number of acid-impacted lakes most likely relate to reductions in atmospheric deposition of sulphur and nitrogen. It is expected that alkalinisation trends will continue provided that atmospheric deposition stabilises or continues to decrease. Nutrient enrichment, grazing pressure, sediment inwash, forestry operations and drawdown are further pressures that result in unfavourable condition assessment outcomes. Eutrophication is of particular concern amongst SSSI lakes of this type. All eleven Welsh lake SACs and SSSIs of the naturally eutrophic type (with Magnopotamion or Hydrocharition-type vegetation) or hard oligo-mesotrophic Chara spp. type are classified as ‘unfavourable’ (70 %) or ‘unfavourable, recovering’ (20 %), with one lake classified as ‘unfavourable, declining’. Eutrophication is the primary reason for failure to meet favourable condition targets. However, unlike acidification, eutrophication may come from both point and diffuse sources, and its effects may be exacerbated by local management practices such as grazing and fish stocking. For many eutrophied lakes there is scope to identify and reduce diffuse sources of nutrients within the catchment. However, residual sediment nutrient concentrations may be problematic, as may inappropriate fish communities resulting from past stocking practices. Eutrophication can dramatically alter the structure and function of a lake ecosystem; therefore carefully constructed management plans must be implemented if favourable condition is to be a realistic future target for impacted naturally eutrophic and hard-water Welsh lake SACs and SSSIs. Only one SAC in Wales is notified for the dystrophic lakes feature (2 lakes). This feature was provisionally classified as unfavourable. However, the targets for this habitat type may require refinement. The report concludes by discussing uncertainty in lake classification, data confidence concerns, CSM issues relating to survey methodology and the appropriateness of targets used for condition assessment. Comparisons between the CSM approach and other lake assessment methodologies are also considered. Overall recommendations for future monitoring and assessment are provided

Moduli backreaction and supersymmetry breaking in string-inspired inflation models

We emphasize the importance of effects from heavy fields on supergravity models of inflation. We study, in particular, the backreaction of stabilizer fields and geometric moduli in the presence of supersymmetry breaking. Many effects do not decouple even if those fields are much heavier than the inflaton field. We apply our results to successful models of Starobinsky-like inflation and natural inflation. In most scenarios producing a plateau potential it proves difficult to retain the flatness of the potential after backreactions are taken into account. Some of them are incompatible with non-perturbative moduli stabilization. In natural inflation there exist a number of models which are not constrained by backreactions at all. In those cases the correction terms from heavy fields have the same inflaton-dependence as the uncorrected potential, so that inflation may be possible even for very large gravitino masses.Comment: 29 pages, 1 figure, comments added, subsection 2.3 added, published versio

Comparison of bulk milk antibody and youngstock serology screens for determining herd status for Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus

BACKGROUND: This paper examines the use of Bulk Milk antibody (BM Ab), Youngstock (YS) serology (Check Tests) and Bulk Milk PCR (BM PCR) for determining the presence or absence of animals persistently infected (PI) with Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus (BVDV) within a herd. Data is presented from 26 herds where average herd sizes were 343 and 98 animals for dairy and beef units respectively. Seventeen herds had sufficient data to analyse using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and probability curves enabling calculation of the sensitivity and specificity of BM Ab and YS Check tests for determining the presence of PI animals within herds in this dataset. RESULTS: Using BM Ab to screen a herd for the presence of PI animals, achieved a herd level sensitivity and specificity of 80.00 % (44.39–97.48 %) and 85.71 % (42.13–99.64 %) respectively (95 % confidence intervals quoted). Sensitivity and specificity of YS Check Tests at a cut off of 3/10 Ab positive YS were 81.82 % (48.22–97.72 %) and 66.67 % (22.28–95.67 %) respectively (95 % confidence interval). These results were achieved by comparing the screening tests to whole herd PI searches that took place 1–19 months after the initial screen with a mean interval of 8 months. Removal of this delay by taking BM samples on the day of a whole herd test and simulating a YS Check Test from the herd test data produced improvements in the reliability of the Check Tests. BM Ab sensitivity and specificity remained unchanged. However, the Check Test sensitivity and specificity improved to 90.9 % (58.72–99.77 %) and 100 % (54.07–100 %) respectively (95 % confidence interval) at a cut of off 2.5/10 Ab positive animals. Our limited BM PCR results identified 5/23 dairy farms with a positive BM PCR result; two contained milking PIs, two had non-milking PIs and another had no PIs identified. CONCLUSIONS: Delaying a PI search following an initial herd screen decreased the diagnostic accuracy and relevance of our results. With careful interpretation, longitudinal surveillance using a combination of the techniques discussed can successfully determine farm status and therefore allow changes in BVDV status to be detected early, thus enabling prompt action in the event of a BVDV incursion

Flux and Instanton Effects in Local F-theory Models and Hierarchical Fermion Masses

We study the deformation induced by fluxes and instanton effects on Yukawa couplings involving 7-brane intersections in local F-theory constructions. In the absence of non-perturbative effects, holomorphic Yukawa couplings do not depend on open string fluxes. On the other hand instanton effects (or gaugino condensation on distant 7-branes) do induce corrections to the Yukawas. The leading order effect may also be captured by the presence of closed string (1,2) IASD fluxes, which give rise to a non-commutative structure. We check that even in the presence of these non-perturbative effects the holomorphic Yukawas remain independent of magnetic fluxes. Although fermion mass hierarchies may be obtained from these non-perturbative effects, they would give identical Yukawa couplings for D-quark and Lepton masses in SU(5) F-theory GUT's, in contradiction with experiment. We point out that this problem may be solved by appropriately normalizing the wavefunctions. We show in a simple toy model how the presence of hypercharge flux may then be responsible for the difference between D-quarks and Lepton masses in local SU(5) GUT's.Comment: 84 pages, 1 figure. v2: minor corrections and references adde

Reading, Trauma and Literary Caregiving 1914-1918: Helen Mary Gaskell and the War Library

This article is about the relationship between reading, trauma and responsive literary caregiving in Britain during the First World War. Its analysis of two little-known documents describing the history of the War Library, begun by Helen Mary Gaskell in 1914, exposes a gap in the scholarship of war-time reading; generates a new narrative of "how," "when," and "why" books went to war; and foregrounds gender in its analysis of the historiography. The Library of Congress's T. W. Koch discovered Gaskell's ground-breaking work in 1917 and reported its successes to the American Library Association. The British Times also covered Gaskell's library, yet researchers working on reading during the war have routinely neglected her distinct model and method, skewing the research base on war-time reading and its association with trauma and caregiving. In the article's second half, a literary case study of a popular war novel demonstrates the extent of the "bitter cry for books." The success of Gaskell's intervention is examined alongside H. G. Wells's representation of textual healing. Reading is shown to offer sick, traumatized and recovering combatants emotional and psychological caregiving in ways that she could not always have predicted and that are not visible in the literary/historical record

Gravito-electromagnetic analogies

We reexamine and further develop different gravito-electromagnetic (GEM) analogies found in the literature, and clarify the connection between them. Special emphasis is placed in two exact physical analogies: the analogy based on inertial fields from the so-called "1+3 formalism", and the analogy based on tidal tensors. Both are reformulated, extended and generalized. We write in both formalisms the Maxwell and the full exact Einstein field equations with sources, plus the algebraic Bianchi identities, which are cast as the source-free equations for the gravitational field. New results within each approach are unveiled. The well known analogy between linearized gravity and electromagnetism in Lorentz frames is obtained as a limiting case of the exact ones. The formal analogies between the Maxwell and Weyl tensors are also discussed, and, together with insight from the other approaches, used to physically interpret gravitational radiation. The precise conditions under which a similarity between gravity and electromagnetism occurs are discussed, and we conclude by summarizing the main outcome of each approach.Comment: 60 pages, 2 figures. Improved version (compared to v2) with some re-write, notation improvements and a new figure that match the published version; expanded compared to the published version to include Secs. 2.3 and

On hypercharge flux and exotics in F-theory GUTs

We study SU(5) Grand Unified Theories within a local framework in F-theory with multiple extra U(1) symmetries arising from a small monodromy group. The use of hypercharge flux for doublet-triplet splitting implies massless exotics in the spectrum that are protected from obtaining a mass by the U(1) symmetries. We find that lifting the exotics by giving vacuum expectation values to some GUT singlets spontaneously breaks all the U(1) symmetries which implies that proton decay operators are induced. If we impose an additional R-parity symmetry by hand we find all the exotics can be lifted while proton decay operators are still forbidden. These models can retain the gauge coupling unification accuracy of the MSSM at 1-loop. For models where the generations are distributed across multiple curves we also present a motivation for the quark-lepton mass splittings at the GUT scale based on a Froggatt-Nielsen approach to flavour.Comment: 38 pages; v2: emphasised possibility of avoiding exotics in models without a global E8 structure, added ref, journal versio

Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and Gross Domestic Product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose; the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool, and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water

Quantitative cross-species extrapolation between humans and fish: The case of the anti-depressant fluoxetine

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Fish are an important model for the pharmacological and toxicological characterization of human pharmaceuticals in drug discovery, drug safety assessment and environmental toxicology. However, do fish respond to pharmaceuticals as humans do? To address this question, we provide a novel quantitative cross-species extrapolation approach (qCSE) based on the hypothesis that similar plasma concentrations of pharmaceuticals cause comparable target-mediated effects in both humans and fish at similar level of biological organization (Read-Across Hypothesis). To validate this hypothesis, the behavioural effects of the anti-depressant drug fluoxetine on the fish model fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) were used as test case. Fish were exposed for 28 days to a range of measured water concentrations of fluoxetine (0.1, 1.0, 8.0, 16, 32, 64 μg/L) to produce plasma concentrations below, equal and above the range of Human Therapeutic Plasma Concentrations (HTPCs). Fluoxetine and its metabolite, norfluoxetine, were quantified in the plasma of individual fish and linked to behavioural anxiety-related endpoints. The minimum drug plasma concentrations that elicited anxiolytic responses in fish were above the upper value of the HTPC range, whereas no effects were observed at plasma concentrations below the HTPCs. In vivo metabolism of fluoxetine in humans and fish was similar, and displayed bi-phasic concentration-dependent kinetics driven by the auto-inhibitory dynamics and saturation of the enzymes that convert fluoxetine into norfluoxetine. The sensitivity of fish to fluoxetine was not so dissimilar from that of patients affected by general anxiety disorders. These results represent the first direct evidence of measured internal dose response effect of a pharmaceutical in fish, hence validating the Read-Across hypothesis applied to fluoxetine. Overall, this study demonstrates that the qCSE approach, anchored to internal drug concentrations, is a powerful tool to guide the assessment of the sensitivity of fish to pharmaceuticals, and strengthens the translational power of the cross-species extrapolation

Scalar geometry and masses in Calabi-Yau string models

We study the geometry of the scalar manifolds emerging in the no-scale sector of Kahler moduli and matter fields in generic Calabi-Yau string compactifications, and describe its implications on scalar masses. We consider both heterotic and orientifold models and compare their characteristics. We start from a general formula for the Kahler potential as a function of the topological compactification data and study the structure of the curvature tensor. We then determine the conditions for the space to be symmetric and show that whenever this is the case the heterotic and the orientifold models give the same scalar manifold. We finally study the structure of scalar masses in this type of geometries, assuming that a generic superpotential triggers spontaneous supersymmetry breaking. We show in particular that their behavior crucially depends on the parameters controlling the departure of the geometry from the coset situation. We first investigate the average sGoldstino mass in the hidden sector and its sign, and study the implications on vacuum metastability and the mass of the lightest scalar. We next examine the soft scalar masses in the visible sector and their flavor structure, and study the possibility of realizing a mild form of sequestering relying on a global symmetry.Comment: 36 pages, no figure