Understanding disease control: influence of epidemiological and economic factors

We present a local spread model of disease transmission on a regular network and compare different control options ranging from treating the whole population to local control in a well-defined neighborhood of an infectious individual. Comparison is based on a total cost of epidemic, including cost of palliative treatment of ill individuals and preventive cost aimed at vaccination or culling of susceptible individuals. Disease is characterized by pre- symptomatic phase which makes detection and control difficult. Three general strategies emerge, global preventive treatment, local treatment within a neighborhood of certain size and only palliative treatment with no prevention. The choice between the strategies depends on relative costs of palliative and preventive treatment. The details of the local strategy and in particular the size of the optimal treatment neighborhood weakly depends on disease infectivity but strongly depends on other epidemiological factors. The required extend of prevention is proportional to the size of the infection neighborhood, but this relationship depends on time till detection and time till treatment in a non-nonlinear (power) law. In addition, we show that the optimal size of control neighborhood is highly sensitive to the relative cost, particularly for inefficient detection and control application. These results have important consequences for design of prevention strategies aiming at emerging diseases for which parameters are not known in advance

Postcopulatory Sexual Selection Is Associated with Reduced Variation in Sperm Morphology

The evolutionary role of postcopulatory sexual selection in shaping male reproductive traits, including sperm morphology, is well documented in several taxa. However, previous studies have focused almost exclusively on the influence of sperm competition on variation among species. In this study we tested the hypothesis that intraspecific variation in sperm morphology is driven by the level of postcopulatory sexual selection in passerine birds.Using two proxy measures of sperm competition level, (i) relative testes size and (ii) extrapair paternity level, we found strong evidence that intermale variation in sperm morphology is negatively associated with the degree of postcopulatory sexual selection, independently of phylogeny.Our results show that the role of postcopulatory sexual selection in the evolution of sperm morphology extends to an intraspecific level, reducing the variation towards what might be a species-specific 'optimum' sperm phenotype. This finding suggests that while postcopulatory selection is generally directional (e.g., favouring longer sperm) across avian species, it also acts as a stabilising evolutionary force within species under intense selection, resulting in reduced variation in sperm morphology traits. We discuss some potential evolutionary mechanisms for this pattern

Psychosocial adversity and socioeconomic position during childhood and epigenetic age: analysis of two prospective cohort studies

Psychosocial adversity in childhood (e.g. abuse) and low socioeconomic position (SEP) can have significant lasting effects on social and health outcomes. DNA methylation-based biomarkers are highly correlated with chronological age; departures of methylation-predicted age from chronological age can be used to define a measure of age acceleration, which may represent a potential biological mechanism linking environmental exposures to later health outcomes. Using data from two cohorts of women Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, (ALSPAC), N = 989 and MRC National Survey of Health and Development, NSHD, N = 773), we assessed associations of SEP, psychosocial adversity in childhood (parental physical or mental illness or death, parental separation, parental absence, sub-optimal maternal bonding, sexual, emotional and physical abuse and neglect) and a cumulative score of these psychosocial adversity measures, with DNA methylation age acceleration in adulthood (measured in peripheral blood at mean chronological ages 29 and 47 in ALSPAC and buccal cells at age 53 in NSHD). Sexual abuse was strongly associated with age acceleration in ALSPAC (sexual abuse data were not available in NSHD), e.g. at the 47-year time point sexual abuse associated with a 3.41 years higher DNA methylation age (95% CI 1.53 to 5.29) after adjusting for childhood and adulthood SEP. No associations were observed between low SEP, any other psychosocial adversity measure or the cumulative psychosocial adversity score and age acceleration. DNA methylation age acceleration is associated with sexual abuse, suggesting a potential mechanism linking sexual abuse with adverse outcomes. Replication studies with larger sample sizes are warranted

Desynchronizing effect of high-frequency stimulation in a generic cortical network model

Transcranial Electrical Stimulation (TCES) and Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS) are two different applications of electrical current to the brain used in different areas of medicine. Both have a similar frequency dependence of their efficiency, with the most pronounced effects around 100Hz. We apply superthreshold electrical stimulation, specifically depolarizing DC current, interrupted at different frequencies, to a simple model of a population of cortical neurons which uses phenomenological descriptions of neurons by Izhikevich and synaptic connections on a similar level of sophistication. With this model, we are able to reproduce the optimal desynchronization around 100Hz, as well as to predict the full frequency dependence of the efficiency of desynchronization, and thereby to give a possible explanation for the action mechanism of TCES.Comment: 9 pages, figs included. Accepted for publication in Cognitive Neurodynamic

Geometric Mixing, Peristalsis, and the Geometric Phase of the Stomach

Mixing fluid in a container at low Reynolds number - in an inertialess environment - is not a trivial task. Reciprocating motions merely lead to cycles of mixing and unmixing, so continuous rotation, as used in many technological applications, would appear to be necessary. However, there is another solution: movement of the walls in a cyclical fashion to introduce a geometric phase. We show using journal-bearing flow as a model that such geometric mixing is a general tool for using deformable boundaries that return to the same position to mix fluid at low Reynolds number. We then simulate a biological example: we show that mixing in the stomach functions because of the "belly phase": peristaltic movement of the walls in a cyclical fashion introduces a geometric phase that avoids unmixing.Comment: Revised, published versio

Sperm design and variation in the New World blackbirds (Icteridae)

Post-copulatory sexual selection (PCSS) is thought to be one of the evolutionary forces responsible for the rapid and divergent evolution of sperm design. However, whereas in some taxa particular sperm traits are positively associated with PCSS, in other taxa, these relationships are negative, and the causes of these different patterns across taxa are poorly understood. In a comparative study using New World blackbirds (Icteridae), we tested whether sperm design was influenced by the level of PCSS and found significant positive associations with the level of PCSS for all sperm components but head length. Additionally, whereas the absolute length of sperm components increased, their variation declined with the intensity of PCSS, indicating stabilizing selection around an optimal sperm design. Given the diversity of, and strong selection on, sperm design, it seems likely that sperm phenotype may influence sperm velocity within species. However, in contrast to other recent studies of passerine birds, but consistent with several other studies, we found no significant link between sperm design and velocity, using four different species that vary both in sperm design and PCSS. Potential reasons for this discrepancy between studies are discussed

The Pioneer Anomaly

Radio-metric Doppler tracking data received from the Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft from heliocentric distances of 20-70 AU has consistently indicated the presence of a small, anomalous, blue-shifted frequency drift uniformly changing with a rate of ~6 x 10^{-9} Hz/s. Ultimately, the drift was interpreted as a constant sunward deceleration of each particular spacecraft at the level of a_P = (8.74 +/- 1.33) x 10^{-10} m/s^2. This apparent violation of the Newton's gravitational inverse-square law has become known as the Pioneer anomaly; the nature of this anomaly remains unexplained. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge of the physical properties of the anomaly and the conditions that led to its detection and characterization. We review various mechanisms proposed to explain the anomaly and discuss the current state of efforts to determine its nature. A comprehensive new investigation of the anomalous behavior of the two Pioneers has begun recently. The new efforts rely on the much-extended set of radio-metric Doppler data for both spacecraft in conjunction with the newly available complete record of their telemetry files and a large archive of original project documentation. As the new study is yet to report its findings, this review provides the necessary background for the new results to appear in the near future. In particular, we provide a significant amount of information on the design, operations and behavior of the two Pioneers during their entire missions, including descriptions of various data formats and techniques used for their navigation and radio-science data analysis. As most of this information was recovered relatively recently, it was not used in the previous studies of the Pioneer anomaly, but it is critical for the new investigation.Comment: 165 pages, 40 figures, 16 tables; accepted for publication in Living Reviews in Relativit

A systematic review of strategies to recruit and retain primary care doctors

Background There is a workforce crisis in primary care. Previous research has looked at the reasons underlying recruitment and retention problems, but little research has looked at what works to improve recruitment and retention. The aim of this systematic review is to evaluate interventions and strategies used to recruit and retain primary care doctors internationally. Methods A systematic review was undertaken. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL and grey literature were searched from inception to January 2015.Articles assessing interventions aimed at recruiting or retaining doctors in high income countries, applicable to primary care doctors were included. No restrictions on language or year of publication. The first author screened all titles and abstracts and a second author screened 20%. Data extraction was carried out by one author and checked by a second. Meta-analysis was not possible due to heterogeneity. Results 51 studies assessing 42 interventions were retrieved. Interventions were categorised into thirteen groups: financial incentives (n=11), recruiting rural students (n=6), international recruitment (n=4), rural or primary care focused undergraduate placements (n=3), rural or underserved postgraduate training (n=3), well-being or peer support initiatives (n=3), marketing (n=2), mixed interventions (n=5), support for professional development or research (n=5), retainer schemes (n=4), re-entry schemes (n=1), specialised recruiters or case managers (n=2) and delayed partnerships (n=2). Studies were of low methodological quality with no RCTs and only 15 studies with a comparison group. Weak evidence supported the use of postgraduate placements in underserved areas, undergraduate rural placements and recruiting students to medical school from rural areas. There was mixed evidence about financial incentives. A marketing campaign was associated with lower recruitment. Conclusions This is the first systematic review of interventions to improve recruitment and retention of primary care doctors. Although the evidence base for recruiting and care doctors is weak and more high quality research is needed, this review found evidence to support undergraduate and postgraduate placements in underserved areas, and selective recruitment of medical students. Other initiatives covered may have potential to improve recruitment and retention of primary care practitioners, but their effectiveness has not been established

Proposals for evaluating the regularity of a scientist'sresearch output

Evaluating the career of individual scientists according to their scientific output is a common bibliometric problem. Two aspects are classically taken into account: overall productivity and overall diffusion/impact, which can be measured by a plethora of indicators that consider publications and/or citations separately or synthesise these two quantities into a single number (e.g. h-index). A secondary aspect, which is sometimes mentioned in the rules of competitive examinations for research position/promotion, is time regularity of one researcher's scientific output. Despite the fact that it is sometimes invoked, a clear definition of regularity is still lacking. We define it as the ability of generating an active and stable research output over time, in terms of both publications/ quantity and citations/diffusion. The goal of this paper is introducing three analysis tools to perform qualitative/quantitative evaluations on the regularity of one scientist's output in a simple and organic way. These tools are respectively (1) the PY/CY diagram, (2) the publication/citation Ferrers diagram and (3) a simplified procedure for comparing the research output of several scientists according to their publication and citation temporal distributions (Borda's ranking). Description of these tools is supported by several examples