Rough paths in idealized financial markets

This paper considers possible price paths of a financial security in an idealized market. Its main result is that the variation index of typical price paths is at most 2, in this sense, typical price paths are not rougher than typical paths of Brownian motion. We do not make any stochastic assumptions and only assume that the price path is positive and right-continuous. The qualification "typical" means that there is a trading strategy (constructed explicitly in the proof) that risks only one monetary unit but brings infinite capital when the variation index of the realized price path exceeds 2. The paper also reviews some known results for continuous price paths and lists several open problems.Comment: 21 pages, this version adds (in Appendix C) a reference to new results in the foundations of game-theoretic probability based on Hardin and Taylor's work on hat puzzle

Timeliness of Clinic Attendance is a good predictor of Virological Response and Resistance to Antiretroviral drugs in HIV-infected patients

Ensuring long-term adherence to therapy is essential for the success of HIV treatment. As access to viral load monitoring and genotyping is poor in resource-limited settings, a simple tool to monitor adherence is needed. We assessed the relationship between an indicator based on timeliness of clinic attendance and virological response and HIV drug resistance

Evaluating Depressive Symptoms in Schizophrenia: A Psychometric Comparison of the Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia and the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale

Background: The aim of this study was to compare two measures of depression in patients with schizophrenia and schizophrenia spectrum disorder, including patients with delusional and schizoaffective disorder, to conclude implications for their application. Sampling and Methods: A total of 278 patients were assessed using the Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia (CDSS) and the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD-17). The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) was also applied. At admission and discharge, a principal component analysis was performed with each depression scale. The two depression rating scales were furthermore compared using correlation and regression analyses. Results: Three factors were revealed for the CDSS and HAMD-17 factor component analysis. A very similar item loading was found for the CDSS at admission and discharge, whereas results of the loadings of the HAMD-17 items were less stable. The first two factors of the CDSS revealed correlations with positive, negative and general psychopathology. In contrast, multiple significant correlations were found for the HAMD-17 factors and the PANSS sub-scores. Multiple regression analyses demonstrated that the HAMD-17 accounted more for the positive and negative symptom domains than the CDSS. Conclusions:The present results suggest that compared to the HAMD-17, the CDSS is a more specific instrument to measure depressive symptoms in schizophrenia and schizophrenia spectrum disorder, especially in acutely ill patients. Copyright (c) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Melatonin promoted chemotaxins expression in lung epithelial cell stimulated with TNF-α

BACKGROUND: Patients with asthma demonstrate circadian variations in the airway inflammation and lung function. Pinealectomy reduces the total inflammatory cell number in the asthmatic rat lung. We hypothesize that melatonin, a circadian rhythm regulator, may modulate the circadian inflammatory variations in asthma by stimulating the chemotaxins expression in the lung epithelial cell. METHODS: Lung epithelial cells (A549) were stimulated with melatonin in the presence or absence of TNF-α(100 ng/ml). RANTES (Regulated on Activation Normal T-cells Expressed and Secreted) and eotaxin expression were measured using ELISA and real-time RT-PCR, eosinophil chemotactic activity (ECA) released by A549 was measured by eosinophil chemotaxis assay. RESULTS: TNF-α increased the expression of RANTES (307.84 ± 33.56 versus 207.64 ± 31.27 pg/ml of control, p = 0.025) and eotaxin (108.97 ± 10.87 versus 54.00 ± 5.29 pg/ml of control, p = 0.041). Melatonin(10(-10 )to 10(-6)M) alone didn't change the expression of RNATES (204.97 ± 32.56 pg/ml) and eotaxin (55.28 ± 6.71 pg/ml). However, In the presence of TNF-α (100 ng/ml), melatonin promoted RANTES (410.88 ± 52.03, 483.60 ± 55.37, 559.92 ± 75.70, 688.42 ± 95.32, 766.39 ± 101.53 pg/ml, treated with 10(-10), 10(-9), 10(-8), 10(-7),10(-6)M melatonin, respectively) and eotaxin (151.95 ± 13.88, 238.79 ± 16.81, 361.62 ± 36.91, 393.66 ± 44.89, 494.34 ± 100.95 pg/ml, treated with 10(-10), 10(-9), 10(-8), 10(-7), 10(-6)M melatonin, respectively) expression in a dose dependent manner in A549 cells (compared with TNF-α alone, P < 0.05). The increased release of RANTES and eotaxin in A549 cells by above treatment were further confirmed by both real-time RT-PCR and the ECA assay. CONCLUSION: Taken together, our results suggested that melatonin might synergize with pro-inflammatory cytokines to modulate the asthma airway inflammation through promoting the expression of chemotaxins in lung epithelial cell

Fuzzy evidence theory and Bayesian networks for process systems risk analysis

YesQuantitative risk assessment (QRA) approaches systematically evaluate the likelihood, impacts, and risk of adverse events. QRA using fault tree analysis (FTA) is based on the assumptions that failure events have crisp probabilities and they are statistically independent. The crisp probabilities of the events are often absent, which leads to data uncertainty. However, the independence assumption leads to model uncertainty. Experts’ knowledge can be utilized to obtain unknown failure data; however, this process itself is subject to different issues such as imprecision, incompleteness, and lack of consensus. For this reason, to minimize the overall uncertainty in QRA, in addition to addressing the uncertainties in the knowledge, it is equally important to combine the opinions of multiple experts and update prior beliefs based on new evidence. In this article, a novel methodology is proposed for QRA by combining fuzzy set theory and evidence theory with Bayesian networks to describe the uncertainties, aggregate experts’ opinions, and update prior probabilities when new evidences become available. Additionally, sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most critical events in the FTA. The effectiveness of the proposed approach has been demonstrated via application to a practical system.The research of Sohag Kabir was partly funded by the DEIS project (Grant Agreement 732242)

Measurement of the branching fraction and CP content for the decay B(0) -> D(*+)D(*-)

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APS.We report a measurement of the branching fraction of the decay B0→D*+D*- and of the CP-odd component of its final state using the BABAR detector. With data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.4  fb-1 collected at the Υ(4S) resonance during 1999–2000, we have reconstructed 38 candidate signal events in the mode B0→D*+D*- with an estimated background of 6.2±0.5 events. From these events, we determine the branching fraction to be B(B0→D*+D*-)=[8.3±1.6(stat)±1.2(syst)]×10-4. The measured CP-odd fraction of the final state is 0.22±0.18(stat)±0.03(syst).This work is supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the A.P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Search for rare quark-annihilation decays, B --> Ds(*) Phi

We report on searches for B- --> Ds- Phi and B- --> Ds*- Phi. In the context of the Standard Model, these decays are expected to be highly suppressed since they proceed through annihilation of the b and u-bar quarks in the B- meson. Our results are based on 234 million Upsilon(4S) --> B Bbar decays collected with the BABAR detector at SLAC. We find no evidence for these decays, and we set Bayesian 90% confidence level upper limits on the branching fractions BF(B- --> Ds- Phi) Ds*- Phi)<1.2x10^(-5). These results are consistent with Standard Model expectations.Comment: 8 pages, 3 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications

Measurement of D-s(+) and D-s(*+) production in B meson decays and from continuum e(+)e(-) annihilation at √s=10.6 GeV

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APSNew measurements of Ds+ and Ds*+ meson production rates from B decays and from qq̅ continuum events near the Υ(4S) resonance are presented. Using 20.8 fb-1 of data on the Υ(4S) resonance and 2.6 fb-1 off-resonance, we find the inclusive branching fractions B(B⃗Ds+X)=(10.93±0.19±0.58±2.73)% and B(B⃗Ds*+X)=(7.9±0.8±0.7±2.0)%, where the first error is statistical, the second is systematic, and the third is due to the Ds+→φπ+ branching fraction uncertainty. The production cross sections σ(e+e-→Ds+X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=7.55±0.20±0.34pb and σ(e+e-→Ds*±X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=5.8±0.7±0.5pb are measured at center-of-mass energies about 40 MeV below the Υ(4S) mass. The branching fractions ΣB(B⃗Ds(*)+D(*))=(5.07±0.14±0.30±1.27)% and ΣB(B⃗Ds*+D(*))=(4.1±0.2±0.4±1.0)% are determined from the Ds(*)+ momentum spectra. The mass difference m(Ds+)-m(D+)=98.4±0.1±0.3MeV/c2 is also measured.This work was supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the Swiss NSF, A. P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Imminent brain death: point of departure for potential heart-beating organ donor recognition

Contains fulltext : 88186.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)PURPOSE: There is, in European countries that conduct medical chart review of intensive care unit (ICU) deaths, no consensus on uniform criteria for defining a potential organ donor. Although the term is increasingly being used in recent literature, it is seldom defined in detail. We searched for criteria for determination of imminent brain death, which can be seen as a precursor for organ donation. METHODS: We organized meetings with representatives from the field of clinical neurology, neurotraumatology, intensive care medicine, transplantation medicine, clinical intensive care ethics, and organ procurement management. During these meetings, all possible criteria were discussed to identify a patient with a reasonable probability to become brain dead (imminent brain death). We focused on the practical usefulness of two validated coma scales (Glasgow Coma Scale and the FOUR Score), brain stem reflexes and respiration to define imminent brain death. Further we discussed criteria to determine irreversibility and futility in acute neurological conditions. RESULTS: A patient who fulfills the definition of imminent brain death is a mechanically ventilated deeply comatose patient, admitted to an ICU, with irreversible catastrophic brain damage of known origin. A condition of imminent brain death requires either a Glasgow Coma Score of 3 and the progressive absence of at least three out of six brain stem reflexes or a FOUR score of E(0)M(0)B(0)R(0). CONCLUSION: The definition of imminent brain death can be used as a point of departure for potential heart-beating organ donor recognition on the intensive care unit or retrospective medical chart analysis.1 september 201