Identifying future research directions for biodiversity, ecosystem services and sustainability: perspectives from early-career researchers

We aimed to identify priority research questions in the field of biodiversity, ecosystem services and sustainability (BESS), based on a workshop held during the NRG BESS Conference for Early Career Researchers on BESS, and to compare these to existing horizon scanning exercises. This work highlights the need for improved data availability through collaboration and knowledge exchange, which, in turn, can support the integrated valuation and sustainable management of ecosystems in response to global change. In addition, clear connectivity among different research themes in this field further emphasizes the need to consider a wider range of topics simultaneously to ensure the sustainable management of ecosystems for human wellbeing. In contrast to other horizon scanning exercises, our focus was more interdisciplinary and more concerned with the limits of sustainability and dynamic relationships between social and ecological systems. The identified questions could provide a framework for researchers, policy makers, funding agencies and the private sector to advance knowledge in biodiversity and ES research and to develop and implement policies to enable sustainable future development

Towards a reconstruction of Blue Nile baseflow from Ethiopian tree rings

Most of the water in the River Nile originates from monsoonal rainfall over the Ethiopian Highlands. Despite warnings of future climate change, little is known about the historical variability in this supply, particularly at annual resolution. Development of tree-ring records in this region has been limited by the occurrence of bi- or multimodal rainfall regimes, causing the development of multiple growth rings that cannot be dated with confidence. In this study, we identified annual rings in 30 Juniperus procera trees from northwest Ethiopia by dendrochronology and AMS radiocarbon dating. Carbon isotope ratios(4 series) and ring widths (73 series) were measured. The carbon isotope series did not contain strong trends possibly attributable to increased anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 concentrations or the juvenile effect. Both carbon isotope values and ring widths were strongly correlated with Blue Nile baseflow, and from composite chronology indices (r=0.75, p <0.01), a preliminary reconstruction of Blue Nile baseflow back to AD 1836 was developed. Subsample signal strength remained above 0.85 for most of the reconstruction. Uncertainty bands were relatively narrow and the reliability of the preliminary reconstruction was confirmed by correspondence with reported years of drought and famine. The preliminary reconstruction is characterized by an exceptional decline in baseflow during the late AD 1960s. Flows recovered during the late 1990s. Additional sampling is advised to increase replication, spatial coverage and length of the preliminary reconstructio

Historical droughts recorded in extended Juniperus procera ring-width chronologies from the Ethiopian Highlands.

In the Horn of Africa, little is known about temporal changes in hydroclimate owing to the influence of multiple weather systems, the complex terrain, and the sparse instrumental records. Absolutely dated tree-ring records offer the potential to extend our understanding of climate into the pre-instrumental era, but tree-ring studies in this region, and indeed all of tropical Africa, have been rare largely due to lack of an annual climate cycle that reliably produces annual tree-rings. In this study, 40 cores were obtained from 31 Juniperus procera trees growing in the grounds of Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo churches in the Gonder region of Ethiopia. The samples were cross-dated using a re-iterative process involving identifying anatomical features from high-resolution images. The tentative ring-width chronologies were revised after the determination of bomb-peak accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dates. Individual series were significantly correlated to the respective master chronologies (r &gt; 0.55; P &lt; 0.05), and expressed population signal values ranged from 0.55 to 0.92. Historical drought years were successfully traced in the chronologies by pointer year analysis. This study confirms that Juniperus procera growing in areas of unimodal precipitation exhibits annual tree-rings and offers the potential as an indirect measure of past climate

Dendrochronology in the dry tropics: the Ethiopian case

Dendrochronology is developing outside temperate and boreal regions. Over the past decade substantial progress has been made in Mediterranean and wet tropical regions. However, research in dry tropical regions, notably those of sub-Saharan Africa, has remained fragmentary. Here, we try to identify the unique challenges and opportunities of dendrochronology in the dry tropics. First, we briefly review the status of dendrochronology outside temperate and boreal regions with an emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. Subsequently, we focus upon one of those areas where dendrochronology in the dry tropics is at the forefront of scientific advance: Ethiopia. A detailed review of tree ring studies in the lowlands and highlands highlights the complexity of ring formation and made us identify four major types of growth ring expression: anatomically not distinct rings, multiple rings per year, annual rings and multiple missing rings. This complex tree growth behaviour is associated with large-scale variations in precipitation regime (unimodal to multimodal) and relatively small-scale variations in tree sensitivity to water availability. Literature results are used to develop a scheme that can be used to predict differences in growth ring formation along gradients in these two factors. Because of the exceptional growth sensitivity of and the importance of local site conditions (topography, biological factors, etc.) for most trees sampled, those growing at the limits of their ecological amplitude are prone to possess multiple rings per year or multiple missing rings. In such circumstances, site selection should not always take place at the limits of the ecological amplitude of a species, but may sometimes have to be diverted to more mesic environments. Successful studies are now appearing, such as those reporting correlations between tree ring chronologies and Blue Nile river flows

Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s–1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer

Crossdating Juniperus procera from North Gondar, Ethiopia

The application of dendrochronology in (sub)tropical regions has been limited by the difficulty in finding trees with distinct annual rings that can be crossdated. Here, we report successful crossdating of Juniperus procera trees from North Gondar, Ethiopia. The trees form annual rings in response to a unimodal rainfall regime. The selection of mesic locations ensured that the trees did not respond to intra-seasonal weather anomalies. Crossdating was achieved by comparison of the wood anatomy directly on the surface of the core samples and purpose-adapted skeleton plotting. Wood-anatomical anomalies, such as false and indistinct rings, were regarded as potentially replicated features and used in crossdating. COFECHA yielded site-specific mean series inter-correlations between 0.52 and 0.59. AMS radiocarbon dating during the bomb era indicated that dating uncertainty is ±1 year