The spectrum of uncertainty in flood damage assessment

The future of the world is becoming more uncertain owing to climate change. The unfolding impacts of climate change are affecting human societies and natural ecosystems. Projections of climate change impacts are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, climate models, and associated processes. Climate models are essential for predicting flow and flood peaks, neces-sitating proper means of quantification and re-use to help refine the predictions made. This study presents an innovative new framework to quantify flood damage assessment as the climate changes. To integrate uncertainty in modelling catchment behaviour, the Quantile Flow Deviation (QFD) metric was used to attribute different sources of uncertainty, including those from variations in climate from point measurements and from extrapolation to flood peaks from the limited observed flows that are available. The square root of error variance (SREV) calculated from global climate model (GCM) precipitation outputs was used to quantify climate change uncertainty, thereby enabling the estimation of the uncertainty in modelled streamflow to allow the extent of change in flood damage to be assessed. Using data from the Leaf River catchment in the USA, this study presents the increase in flood damage uncertainty resulting from explicit consideration of uncertainty as well as the change in the climate as a function of global temperature rise

Further Experimental Studies of Two-Body Radiative \Upsilon Decays

Continuing our studies of radiative Upsilon(1S) decays, we report on a search for Upsilon to gamma eta and Upsilon to gamma f_{J}(2220) in 61.3 pb^{-1} of e^{+}e^{-} data taken with the CLEO II detector at the Cornell Electron Storage Ring. For the gamma eta search the three decays of the eta meson to pi^{+}pi^{-}pi^{0}, pi^{0}pi^{0}pi^{0}, and gamma gamma were investigated. We found no candidate events in the two (3\pi)^{0} modes and no significant excess over expected backgrounds in the gamma gamma mode to set a limit on the branching fraction of B(Upsilon to gamma eta) < 2.1 x 10^{-5} at 90% C.L. The three charged two-body final states h h-bar (h = pi^{+}, K^{+}, p) were investigated for f_{J}(2220) production, with one, one, and two events found, respectively. Limits at 90% C.L. of B(\Upsilon to gamma f_{J}) x B(f_{J} to h h-bar) ~ 1.5 x 10^{-5} have been set for each of these modes. We compare our results to measurements of other radiative Upsilon decays, to measurements of radiative J/psi decays, and to theoretical predictions.Comment: 19 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to Physical Review

Diagnosis of chronic conditions with modifiable lifestyle risk factors in selected urban and rural areas of Bangladesh and sociodemographic variability therein

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Bangladesh suffers from a lack of healthcare providers. The growing chronic disease epidemic's demand for healthcare resources will further strain Bangladesh's limited healthcare workforce. Little is known about how Bangladeshis with chronic disease seek care. This study describes chronic disease patients' care seeking behavior by analyzing which providers diagnose these diseases.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>During 2 month periods in 2009, a cross-sectional survey collected descriptive data on chronic disease diagnoses among 3 surveillance populations within the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR, B) network. The maximum number of respondents (over age 25) who reported having ever been diagnosed with a chronic disease determined the sample size. Using SAS software (version 8.0) multivariate regression analyses were preformed on related sociodemographic factors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 32,665 survey respondents, 8,591 self reported having a chronic disease. Chronically ill respondents were 63.4% rural residents. Hypertension was the most prevalent disease in rural (12.4%) and urban (16.1%) areas. In rural areas chronic disease diagnoses were made by MBBS doctors (59.7%) and Informal Allopathic Providers (IAPs) (34.9%). In urban areas chronic disease diagnoses were made by MBBS doctors (88.0%) and IAP (7.9%). Our analysis identified several groups that depended heavily on IAP for coverage, particularly rural, poor and women.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>IAPs play important roles in chronic disease care, particularly in rural areas. Input and cooperation from IAPs are needed to minimize rural health disparities. More research on IAP knowledge and practices regarding chronic disease is needed to properly utilize this potential healthcare resource.</p

The Formation of the First Massive Black Holes

Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) are common in local galactic nuclei, and SMBHs as massive as several billion solar masses already exist at redshift z=6. These earliest SMBHs may grow by the combination of radiation-pressure-limited accretion and mergers of stellar-mass seed BHs, left behind by the first generation of metal-free stars, or may be formed by more rapid direct collapse of gas in rare special environments where dense gas can accumulate without first fragmenting into stars. This chapter offers a review of these two competing scenarios, as well as some more exotic alternative ideas. It also briefly discusses how the different models may be distinguished in the future by observations with JWST, (e)LISA and other instruments.Comment: 47 pages with 306 references; this review is a chapter in "The First Galaxies - Theoretical Predictions and Observational Clues", Springer Astrophysics and Space Science Library, Eds. T. Wiklind, V. Bromm & B. Mobasher, in pres

Expected Performance of the ATLAS Experiment - Detector, Trigger and Physics

A detailed study is presented of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector. The reconstruction of tracks, leptons, photons, missing energy and jets is investigated, together with the performance of b-tagging and the trigger. The physics potential for a variety of interesting physics processes, within the Standard Model and beyond, is examined. The study comprises a series of notes based on simulations of the detector and physics processes, with particular emphasis given to the data expected from the first years of operation of the LHC at CERN

Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Modeling in Pediatric Drug Development, and the Importance of Standardized Scaling of Clearance.

Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modeling is important in the design and conduct of clinical pharmacology research in children. During drug development, PKPD modeling and simulation should underpin rational trial design and facilitate extrapolation to investigate efficacy and safety. The application of PKPD modeling to optimize dosing recommendations and therapeutic drug monitoring is also increasing, and PKPD model-based dose individualization will become a core feature of personalized medicine. Following extensive progress on pediatric PK modeling, a greater emphasis now needs to be placed on PD modeling to understand age-related changes in drug effects. This paper discusses the principles of PKPD modeling in the context of pediatric drug development, summarizing how important PK parameters, such as clearance (CL), are scaled with size and age, and highlights a standardized method for CL scaling in children. One standard scaling method would facilitate comparison of PK parameters across multiple studies, thus increasing the utility of existing PK models and facilitating optimal design of new studies

Schizophrenia risk conferred by rare protein-truncating variants is conserved across diverse human populations

Schizophrenia (SCZ) is a chronic mental illness and among the most debilitating conditions encountered in medical practice. A recent landmark SCZ study of the protein-coding regions of the genome identified a causal role for ten genes and a concentration of rare variant signals in evolutionarily constrained genes1. This recent study—and most other large-scale human genetics studies—was mainly composed of individuals of European (EUR) ancestry, and the generalizability of the findings in non-EUR populations remains unclear. To address this gap, we designed a custom sequencing panel of 161 genes selected based on the current knowledge of SCZ genetics and sequenced a new cohort of 11,580 SCZ cases and 10,555 controls of diverse ancestries. Replicating earlier work, we found that cases carried a significantly higher burden of rare protein-truncating variants (PTVs) among evolutionarily constrained genes (odds ratio = 1.48; P = 5.4 × 10−6). In meta-analyses with existing datasets totaling up to 35,828 cases and 107,877 controls, this excess burden was largely consistent across five ancestral populations. Two genes (SRRM2 and AKAP11) were newly implicated as SCZ risk genes, and one gene (PCLO) was identified as shared by individuals with SCZ and those with autism. Overall, our results lend robust support to the rare allelic spectrum of the genetic architecture of SCZ being conserved across diverse human populations