Changes in the geographical distribution and abundance of the tick Ixodes ricinus during the past 30 years in Sweden

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Ixodes ricinus </it>is the main vector in Europe of human-pathogenic Lyme borreliosis (LB) spirochaetes, the tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and other pathogens of humans and domesticated mammals. The results of a previous 1994 questionnaire, directed at people living in Central and North Sweden (Svealand and Norrland) and aiming to gather information about tick exposure for humans and domestic animals, suggested that <it>Ixodes ricinus </it>ticks had become more widespread in Central Sweden and the southern part of North Sweden from the early 1980s to the early 1990s. To investigate whether the expansion of the tick's northern geographical range and the increasing abundance of ticks in Sweden were still occurring, in 2009 we performed a follow-up survey 16 years after the initial study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A questionnaire similar to the one used in the 1994 study was published in Swedish magazines aimed at dog owners, home owners, and hunters. The questionnaire was published together with a popular science article about the tick's biology and role as a pathogen vector in Sweden. The magazines were selected to get information from people familiar with ticks and who spend time in areas where ticks might be present.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Analyses of data from both surveys revealed that during the near 30-year period from the early 1980s to 2008, <it>I. ricinus </it>has expanded its distribution range northwards. In the early 1990s ticks were found in new areas along the northern coastline of the Baltic Sea, while in the 2009 study, ticks were reported for the first time from many locations in North Sweden. This included locations as far north as 66°N and places in the interior part of North Sweden. During this 16-year period the tick's range in Sweden was estimated to have increased by 9.9%. Most of the range expansion occurred in North Sweden (north of 60°N) where the tick's coverage area doubled from 12.5% in the early 1990s to 26.8% in 2008. Moreover, according to the respondents, the abundance of ticks had increased markedly in LB- and TBE-endemic areas in South (Götaland) and Central Sweden.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results suggest that <it>I. ricinus </it>has expanded its range in North Sweden and has become distinctly more abundant in Central and South Sweden during the last three decades. However, in the northern mountain region <it>I. ricinus </it>is still absent. The increased abundance of the tick can be explained by two main factors: First, the high availability of large numbers of important tick maintenance hosts, i.e., cervids, particularly roe deer (<it>Capreolus capreolus</it>) during the last three decades. Second, a warmer climate with milder winters and a prolonged growing season that permits greater survival and proliferation over a larger geographical area of both the tick itself and deer. High reproductive potential of roe deer, high tick infestation rate and the tendency of roe deer to disperse great distances may explain the range expansion of <it>I. ricinus </it>and particularly the appearance of new TBEV foci far away from old TBEV-endemic localities. The geographical presence of LB in Sweden corresponds to the distribution of <it>I. ricinus</it>. Thus, LB is now an emerging disease risk in many parts of North Sweden. Unless countermeasures are undertaken to keep the deer populations, particularly <it>C. capreolus </it>and <it>Dama dama</it>, at the relatively low levels that prevailed before the late 1970s - especially in and around urban areas where human population density is high - by e.g. reduced hunting of red fox (<it>Vulpes vulpes</it>) and lynx (<it>Lynx lynx</it>), the incidences of human LB and TBE are expected to continue to be high or even to increase in Sweden in coming decades.</p

Multi-source analysis reveals latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in range of Ixodes ricinus at its northern distribution limit

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is increasing evidence for a latitudinal and altitudinal shift in the distribution range of <it>Ixodes ricinus</it>. The reported incidence of tick-borne disease in humans is on the rise in many European countries and has raised political concern and attracted media attention. It is disputed which factors are responsible for these trends, though many ascribe shifts in distribution range to climate changes. Any possible climate effect would be most easily noticeable close to the tick's geographical distribution limits. In Norway- being the northern limit of this species in Europe- no documentation of changes in range has been published. The objectives of this study were to describe the distribution of <it>I. ricinus </it>in Norway and to evaluate if any range shifts have occurred relative to historical descriptions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Multiple data sources - such as tick-sighting reports from veterinarians, hunters, and the general public - and surveillance of human and animal tick-borne diseases were compared to describe the present distribution of <it>I. ricinus </it>in Norway. Correlation between data sources and visual comparison of maps revealed spatial consistency. In order to identify the main spatial pattern of tick abundance, a principal component analysis (PCA) was used to obtain a weighted mean of four data sources. The weighted mean explained 67% of the variation of the data sources covering Norway's 430 municipalities and was used to depict the present distribution of <it>I. ricinus</it>. To evaluate if any geographical range shift has occurred in recent decades, the present distribution was compared to historical data from 1943 and 1983.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Tick-borne disease and/or observations of <it>I. ricinus </it>was reported in municipalities up to an altitude of 583 metres above sea level (MASL) and is now present in coastal municipalities north to approximately 69°N.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p><it>I. ricinus </it>is currently found further north and at higher altitudes than described in historical records. The approach used in this study, a multi-source analysis, proved useful to assess alterations in tick distribution.</p

Multivariate modeling to identify patterns in clinical data: the example of chest pain

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In chest pain, physicians are confronted with numerous interrelationships between symptoms and with evidence for or against classifying a patient into different diagnostic categories. The aim of our study was to find natural groups of patients on the basis of risk factors, history and clinical examination data which should then be validated with patients' final diagnoses.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic study in 74 primary care practices to establish the validity of symptoms and findings for the diagnosis of coronary heart disease. A total of 1199 patients above age 35 presenting with chest pain were included in the study. General practitioners took a standardized history and performed a physical examination. They also recorded their preliminary diagnoses, investigations and management related to the patient's chest pain. We used multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) to examine associations on variable level, and multidimensional scaling (MDS), k-means and fuzzy cluster analyses to search for subgroups on patient level. We further used heatmaps to graphically illustrate the results.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A multiple correspondence analysis supported our data collection strategy on variable level. Six factors emerged from this analysis: „chest wall syndrome“, „vital threat“, „stomach and bowel pain“, „angina pectoris“, „chest infection syndrome“, and „ self-limiting chest pain“. MDS, k-means and fuzzy cluster analysis on patient level were not able to find distinct groups. The resulting cluster solutions were not interpretable and had insufficient statistical quality criteria.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Chest pain is a heterogeneous clinical category with no coherent associations between signs and symptoms on patient level.</p

Search for Kaluza-Klein Graviton Emission in ppˉp\bar{p} Collisions at s=1.8\sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV using the Missing Energy Signature

We report on a search for direct Kaluza-Klein graviton production in a data sample of 84 ${pb}^{-1}$ of \ppb collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 1.8 TeV, recorded by the Collider Detector at Fermilab. We investigate the final state of large missing transverse energy and one or two high energy jets. We compare the data with the predictions from a $3+1+n$-dimensional Kaluza-Klein scenario in which gravity becomes strong at the TeV scale. At 95% confidence level (C.L.) for $n$=2, 4, and 6 we exclude an effective Planck scale below 1.0, 0.77, and 0.71 TeV, respectively.Comment: Submitted to PRL, 7 pages 4 figures/Revision includes 5 figure

Measurement of the average time-integrated mixing probability of b-flavored hadrons produced at the Tevatron

We have measured the number of like-sign (LS) and opposite-sign (OS) lepton pairs arising from double semileptonic decays of $b$ and $\bar{b}$-hadrons, pair-produced at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. The data samples were collected with the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) during the 1992-1995 collider run by triggering on the existence of $\mu \mu$ and $e \mu$ candidates in an event. The observed ratio of LS to OS dileptons leads to a measurement of the average time-integrated mixing probability of all produced $b$-flavored hadrons which decay weakly, $\bar{\chi} = 0.152 \pm 0.007$ (stat.) $\pm 0.011$ (syst.), that is significantly larger than the world average $\bar{\chi} = 0.118 \pm 0.005$.Comment: 47 pages, 10 figures, 15 tables Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Flexible modelling of spatial variation in agricultural field trials with the R package INLA

The objective of this paper was to fit different established spatial models for analysing agricultural field trials using the open-source R package INLA. Spatial variation is common in field trials, and accounting for it increases the accuracy of estimated genetic effects. However, this is still hindered by the lack of available software implementations. We compare some established spatial models and show possibilities for flexible modelling with respect to field trial design and joint modelling over multiple years and locations. We use a Bayesian framework and for statistical inference the integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) implemented in the R package INLA. The spatial models we use are the well-known independent row and column effects, separable first-order autoregressive ( AR1⊗AR1 ) models and a Gaussian random field (Matérn) model that is approximated via the stochastic partial differential equation approach. The Matérn model can accommodate flexible field trial designs and yields interpretable parameters. We test the models in a simulation study imitating a wheat breeding programme with different levels of spatial variation, with and without genome-wide markers and with combining data over two locations, modelling spatial and genetic effects jointly. The results show comparable predictive performance for both the AR1⊗AR1 and the Matérn models. We also present an example of fitting the models to a real wheat breeding data and simulated tree breeding data with the Nelder wheel design to show the flexibility of the Matérn model and the R package INLA

Involvement of microbial mats in early fossilization by decay delay and formation of impressions and replicas of vertebrates and invertebrates

Microbial mats have been hypothesized to improve the persistence and the preservation of organic remains during fossilization processes. We test this hypothesis with long-term experiments (up to 5.5 years) using invertebrate and vertebrate corpses.Once placed on mats,the microbial community coats the corpses and forms a three-dimensional sarcophagus composed of microbial cells and exopolymeric substances (EPS). This coverage provides a template for i) moulding superficial features, resulting in negative impressions, and ii) generating replicas.The impressions of fly setulae, fish scales and frog skin verrucae are shaped mainly by small cells in an EPS matrix. Microbes also replicate delicate structures such as the three successive layers that compose a fish eye.The sarcophagus protects the body integrity, allowing the persistence of inner organs such as the ovaries and digestive apparatus in flies,the swim bladder and muscles in fish, and the bone marrow in frog legs.This study brings strong experimental evidence to the idea that mats favour metazoan fossilization by moulding, replicating and delaying decay. Rapid burial has classically been invoked as a mechanism to explain exceptional preservation. However, mats may play a similar role during early fossilization as they can preserve complex features for a long timeThis work, which is part of the research projects CGL2013-42643P and the research grant supporting M. Iniesto were funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness. The SEM facility at IMPMC was supported by Region Ile de France grant SESAME 2006 I-07-593/R, INSU-CNRS, INP-CNRS, and University Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris. SEM analyses performed for this study were supported by a grant from the Foundation Simone et Cino Del Duca (PI: K. Benzerara). Some SEM observations were also conducted at SIdI UAM (Madrid). Environmental SEM observations were performed at the MNCN (Madrid

Developmental changes in mesenteric artery reactivity in embryonic and newly hatched chicks

At birth, the intestine becomes the sole site for nutrient absorption requiring a dramatic increase in blood flow. The vascular changes accompanying this transition have been partly characterized in mammals. We investigated, using wire myography, the developmental changes in chick mesenteric artery (MA) reactivity. Rings of the MA from 15-day (E15) and 19-day (E19) chicken embryos (total incubation 21 days) as well as non-fed 0–3-h-old (NH3h) and first-fed 1-day-old (NH1d) newly hatched chicks contracted in response to KCl, norepinephrine (NE), U46619, and endothelin (ET)-1 and relaxed in response to acetylcholine (ACh), sodium nitroprusside (SNP), and forskolin indicating the presence of electro- and pharmaco-mechanical coupling as well as cGMP- and cAMP-mediated relaxation. In ovo development and transition to ex ovo life was accompanied by alterations in the response of the MAs, but a different developmental trajectory was observed for each reactivity pathway tested. Thus, the contractile efficacy of KCl underwent a linear increase (E15 < E19 < NH3h < NH1d). The efficacy of NE and U46619 increased in ovo, but not ex ovo (E15 < E19 = NH3h = NH1d) and the efficacy of ET-1 peaked at E19 (E15 < E19 > NH3h = NH1d). The relaxations elicited by ACh (endothelium-dependent), SNP, and forskolin did not undergo significant developmental changes. In conclusion, the ability of chick MAs to constrict in response to pharmacological stimuli increases during the embryonic period, but no dramatic changes are induced by hatching or the first feeding. Maturation of vasodilator mechanisms precedes that of vasoconstrictor mechanisms. Alterations of the delicate balance between vasoconstrictors and vasodilators may play an important role in perinatal intestinal diseases