Seven challenges for model-driven data collection in experimental and observational studies.

Infectious disease models are both concise statements of hypotheses and powerful techniques for creating tools from hypotheses and theories. As such, they have tremendous potential for guiding data collection in experimental and observational studies, leading to more efficient testing of hypotheses and more robust study designs. In numerous instances, infectious disease models have played a key role in informing data collection, including the Garki project studying malaria, the response to the 2009 pandemic of H1N1 influenza in the United Kingdom and studies of T-cell immunodynamics in mammals. However, such synergies remain the exception rather than the rule; and a close marriage of dynamic modeling and empirical data collection is far from the norm in infectious disease research. Overcoming the challenges to using models to inform data collection has the potential to accelerate innovation and to improve practice in how we deal with infectious disease threats

Measures of behavioral function predict duration of video game play: utilization of the Video Game Functional Assessment - Revised

Background: Internet gaming disorder (IGD) was introduced in the DSM-5 as a way of identifying and diagnosing problematic video game play. However, the use of the diagnosis is constrained, as it shares criteria with other addictive orders (e.g., pathological gambling). Aims: Further work is required to better understand IGD. One potential avenue of investigation is IGD’s relationship to the primary reinforcing behavioral functions. This study explores the relationship between duration of video game play and the reinforcing behavioral functions that may motivate or maintain video gaming. Methods: A total of 499 video game players began the online survey, with complete data from 453 participants (85% white and 28% female), were analyzed. Individuals were placed into five groups based on self-reported hours of video gaming per week, and completed the Video Game Functional Assessment – Revised (VGFA-R). Results: The results demonstrated the escape and social attention function were significant in predicting duration of video game play, whereas sensory and tangible were not significant. Conclusion: Future implications of the VGFA-R and behaviorally based research are discussed

Quantifying the impact of climate change on drought regimes using the Standardised Precipitation Index

The study presents a methodology to characterise short- or long-term drought events, designed to aid understanding of how climate change may affect future risk. An indicator of drought magnitude, combining parameters of duration, spatial extent and intensity, is presented based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI is applied to observed (1955–2003) and projected (2003–2050) precipitation data from the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS). Potential consequences of climate change on drought regimes in Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain, Portugal and the USA are quantified. Uncertainty is assessed by emulating a range of global circulation models to project climate change. Further uncertainty is addressed through the use of a high-emission scenario and a low stabilisation scenario representing a stringent mitigation policy. Climate change was shown to have a larger effect on the duration and magnitude of long-term droughts, and Australia, Brazil, Spain, Portugal and the USA were highlighted as being particularly vulnerable to multi-year drought events, with the potential for drought magnitude to exceed historical experience. The study highlights the characteristics of drought which may be more sensitive under climate change. For example, on average, short-term droughts in the USA do not become more intense but are projected to increase in duration. Importantly, the stringent mitigation scenario had limited effect on drought regimes in the first half of the twenty-first century, showing that adaptation to drought risk will be vital in these regions

Effectiveness of structured patient-clinician communication with a solution focused approach (DIALOG+) in community treatment of patients with psychosis - a cluster randomised controlled trial

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

The SCottish Alcoholic Liver disease Evaluation: a population-level matched cohort study of hospital-based costs, 1991-2011

Studies assessing the costs of alcoholic liver disease are lacking. We aimed to calculate the costs of hospitalisations before and after diagnosis compared to population controls matched by age, sex and socio-economic deprivation. We aimed to use population level data to identify a cohort of individuals hospitalised for the first time with alcoholic liver disease in Scotland between 1991 and 2011.Incident cases were classified by disease severity, sex, age group, socio-economic deprivation and year of index admission. 5 matched controls for every incident case were identified from the Scottish population level primary care database. Hospital costs were calculated for both cases and controls using length of stay from morbidity records and hospital-specific daily rates by specialty. Remaining lifetime costs were estimated using parametric survival models and predicted annual costs. 35,208 incident alcoholic liver disease hospitalisations were identified. Mean annual hospital costs for cases were 2.3 times that of controls pre diagnosis (£804 higher) and 10.2 times (£12,774 higher) post diagnosis. Mean incident admission cost was £6,663. Remaining lifetime cost for a male, 50-59 years old, living in the most deprived area diagnosed with acoholic liver disease was estimated to be £65,999 higher than the matched controls (£12,474 for 7.43 years remaining life compared to £1,224 for 21.8 years). In Scotland, alcoholic liver disease diagnosis is associated with significant increases in admissions to hospital both before and after diagnosis. Our results provide robust population level estimates of costs of alcoholic liver disease for the purposes of health-care delivery, planning and future cost-effectiveness analyses

An Open-System Quantum Simulator with Trapped Ions

The control of quantum systems is of fundamental scientific interest and promises powerful applications and technologies. Impressive progress has been achieved in isolating the systems from the environment and coherently controlling their dynamics, as demonstrated by the creation and manipulation of entanglement in various physical systems. However, for open quantum systems, engineering the dynamics of many particles by a controlled coupling to an environment remains largely unexplored. Here we report the first realization of a toolbox for simulating an open quantum system with up to five qubits. Using a quantum computing architecture with trapped ions, we combine multi-qubit gates with optical pumping to implement coherent operations and dissipative processes. We illustrate this engineering by the dissipative preparation of entangled states, the simulation of coherent many-body spin interactions and the quantum non-demolition measurement of multi-qubit observables. By adding controlled dissipation to coherent operations, this work offers novel prospects for open-system quantum simulation and computation.Comment: Pre-review submission to Nature. For an updated and final version see publication. Manuscript + Supplementary Informatio

Antigen-Specific T-Cell Activation Distinguishes between Recent and Remote Tuberculosis Infection

Rationale: Current diagnostic tests fail to identify individuals at higher risk of progression to tuberculosis disease, such as those with recent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, who should be prioritized for targeted preventive treatment. Objectives: To define a blood-based biomarker, measured with a simple flow cytometry assay, that can stratify different stages of tuberculosis infection to infer risk of disease. Methods: South African adolescents were serially tested with QuantiFERON-TB Gold to define recent (QuantiFERON-TB conversion 1 yr) infection. We defined the ΔHLA-DR median fluorescence intensity biomarker as the difference in HLA-DR expression between IFN-γ+ TNF+ Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific T cells and total CD3+ T cells. Biomarker performance was assessed by blinded prediction in untouched test cohorts with recent versus persistent infection or tuberculosis disease and by unblinded analysis of asymptomatic adolescents with tuberculosis infection who remained healthy (nonprogressors) or who progressed to microbiologically confirmed disease (progressors). Measurements and Main Results: In the test cohorts, frequencies of Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific T cells differentiated between QuantiFERON-TB- (n = 25) and QuantiFERON-TB+ (n = 47) individuals (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.00). ΔHLA-DR significantly discriminated between recent (n = 20) and persistent (n = 22) QuantiFERON-TB+ (0.91; 0.83-1.00); persistent QuantiFERON-TB+ and newly diagnosed tuberculosis (n = 19; 0.99; 0.96-1.00); and tuberculosis progressors (n = 22) and nonprogressors (n = 34; 0.75; 0.63-0.87). However, ΔHLA-DR median fluorescent intensity could not discriminate between recent QuantiFERON-TB+ and tuberculosis (0.67; 0.50-0.84). Conclusions: The ΔHLA-DR biomarker can identify individuals with recent QuantiFERON-TB conversion and those with disease progression, allowing targeted provision of preventive treatment to those at highest risk of tuberculosis. Further validation studies of this novel immune biomarker in various settings and populations at risk are warranted

The Waiting Time for Inter-Country Spread of Pandemic Influenza

BACKGROUND: The time delay between the start of an influenza pandemic and its subsequent initiation in other countries is highly relevant to preparedness planning. We quantify the distribution of this random time in terms of the separate components of this delay, and assess how the delay may be extended by non-pharmaceutical interventions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The model constructed for this time delay accounts for: (i) epidemic growth in the source region, (ii) the delay until an infected individual from the source region seeks to travel to an at-risk country, (iii) the chance that infected travelers are detected by screening at exit and entry borders, (iv) the possibility of in-flight transmission, (v) the chance that an infected arrival might not initiate an epidemic, and (vi) the delay until infection in the at-risk country gathers momentum. Efforts that reduce the disease reproduction number in the source region below two and severe travel restrictions are most effective for delaying a local epidemic, and under favourable circumstances, could add several months to the delay. On the other hand, the model predicts that border screening for symptomatic infection, wearing a protective mask during travel, promoting early presentation of cases arising among arriving passengers and moderate reduction in travel volumes increase the delay only by a matter of days or weeks. Elevated in-flight transmission reduces the delay only minimally. CONCLUSIONS: The delay until an epidemic of pandemic strain influenza is imported into an at-risk country is largely determined by the course of the epidemic in the source region and the number of travelers attempting to enter the at-risk country, and is little affected by non-pharmaceutical interventions targeting these travelers. Short of preventing international travel altogether, eradicating a nascent pandemic in the source region appears to be the only reliable method of preventing country-to-country spread of a pandemic strain of influenza

道徳と幸福 : カント倫理思想の一考察

Asthma is a serious health problem and during the last decade various experimental models of asthma have been developed to study the pathogenesis of this disease. In this study we describe a new mouse model of asthma that uses the spores of Alternaria alternata and Cladosporium herbarum, two allergenic molds recognized as common inducers of rhinitis and asthma in humans. Here we demonstrate that A. alternata and C. herbarum spores are immunogenic when injected into BALB/c mice, and induce the production of specific IgM and IgG1 antibodies and strongly increase IgE serum levels. To induce the allergic response, mice were sensitized by two intraperitoneal (i.p.) injections and then intranasaly (i.n.) challenged with A. alternata and C. herbarum spores. Bronchoalveolar lavages (BALs) from these mice contained numerous macrophages, neutrophils, eosinophils and lymphocytes whereas neutrophils were the predominant BAL inflammatory cells in nonsensitized mice. Histological studies demonstrated an influx of eosinophils in peri-vascular and peri-bronchial areas and the presence of numerous epithelial goblet cells only in sensitized mice. Increased expression of mRNA specific for various chemokines (eotaxin, MIP-1α, MIP-2) and chemokine receptors (CCR-1, CCR-2 and CCR-5) was observed in the lungs of nonsensitized mice challenged with the spores. Expression of CCR-3 mRNA in the lungs and Th2 cytokine (IL-4, IL-5 and IL-13) secretion in the BAL was additionally observed in sensitized and challenged mice. Finally we demonstrate through whole-body plethysmography that mold spore sensitization and challenge induce the development of an airway hyperreactivity in response to nebulized methacholine

Digital Quantum Simulation of the Statistical Mechanics of a Frustrated Magnet

Many interesting problems in physics, chemistry, and computer science are equivalent to problems of interacting spins. However, most of these problems require computational resources that are out of reach by classical computers. A promising solution to overcome this challenge is to exploit the laws of quantum mechanics to perform simulation. Several "analog" quantum simulations of interacting spin systems have been realized experimentally. However, relying on adiabatic techniques, these simulations are limited to preparing ground states only. Here we report the first experimental results on a "digital" quantum simulation on thermal states; we simulated a three-spin frustrated magnet, a building block of spin ice, with an NMR quantum information processor, and we are able to explore the phase diagram of the system at any simulated temperature and external field. These results serve as a guide for identifying the challenges for performing quantum simulation on physical systems at finite temperatures, and pave the way towards large scale experimental simulations of open quantum systems in condensed matter physics and chemistry.Comment: 7 pages for the main text plus 6 pages for the supplementary material