Stable isotope evidence for late medieval (14th-15th C) origins of the eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) fishery

Although recent historical ecology studies have extended quantitative knowledge of eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) exploitation back as far as the 16th century, the historical origin of the modern fishery remains obscure. Widespread archaeological evidence for cod consumption around the eastern Baltic littoral emerges around the 13th century, three centuries before systematic documentation, but it is not clear whether this represents (1) development of a substantial eastern Baltic cod fishery, or (2) large-scale importation of preserved cod from elsewhere. To distinguish between these hypotheses we use stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis to determine likely catch regions of 74 cod vertebrae and cleithra from 19 Baltic archaeological sites dated from the 8th to the 16th centuries. δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N signatures for six possible catch regions were established using a larger sample of archaeological cod cranial bones (n = 249). The data strongly support the second hypothesis, revealing widespread importation of cod during the 13th to 14th centuries, most of it probably from Arctic Norway. By the 15th century, however, eastern Baltic cod dominate within our sample, indicating the development of a substantial late medieval fishery. Potential human impact on cod stocks in the eastern Baltic must thus be taken into account for at least the last 600 years.The research was funded by the Leverhulme Trust (grant no. F/00 224/S), the History of Marine Animal Populations project (supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation) and the McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research

Interpretability of radiomics models is improved when using feature group selection strategies for predicting molecular and clinical targets in clear-cell renal cell carcinoma: insights from the TRACERx Renal study

BACKGROUND: The aim of this work is to evaluate the performance of radiomics predictions for a range of molecular, genomic and clinical targets in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) and demonstrate the impact of novel feature selection strategies and sub-segmentations on model interpretability. METHODS: Contrast-enhanced CT scans from the first 101 patients recruited to the TRACERx Renal Cancer study (NCT03226886) were used to derive radiomics classification models to predict 20 molecular, histopathology and clinical target variables. Manual 3D segmentation was used in conjunction with automatic sub-segmentation to generate radiomics features from the core, rim, high and low enhancing sub-regions, and the whole tumour. Comparisons were made between two classification model pipelines: a Conventional pipeline reflecting common radiomics practice, and a Proposed pipeline including two novel feature selection steps designed to improve model interpretability. For both pipelines nested cross-validation was used to estimate prediction performance and tune model hyper-parameters, and permutation testing was used to evaluate the statistical significance of the estimated performance measures. Further model robustness assessments were conducted by evaluating model variability across the cross-validation folds. RESULTS: Classification performance was significant (p  0.1. Five of these targets (necrosis on histology, presence of renal vein invasion, overall histological stage, linear evolutionary subtype and loss of 9p21.3 somatic alteration marker) had AUROC > 0.8. Models derived using the Proposed pipeline contained fewer feature groups than the Conventional pipeline, leading to more straightforward model interpretations without loss of performance. Sub-segmentations lead to improved performance and/or improved interpretability when predicting the presence of sarcomatoid differentiation and tumour stage. CONCLUSIONS: Use of the Proposed pipeline, which includes the novel feature selection methods, leads to more interpretable models without compromising prediction performance. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03226886 (TRACERx Renal

Genetic Variation in OAS1 Is a Risk Factor for Initial Infection with West Nile Virus in Man

West Nile virus (WNV) is a re-emerging pathogen that can cause fatal encephalitis. In mice, susceptibility to WNV has been reported to result from a single point mutation in oas1b, which encodes 2′–5′ oligoadenylate synthetase 1b, a member of the type I interferon-regulated OAS gene family involved in viral RNA degradation. In man, the human ortholog of oas1b appears to be OAS1. The ‘A’ allele at SNP rs10774671 of OAS1 has previously been shown to alter splicing of OAS1 and to be associated with reduced OAS activity in PBMCs. Here we show that the frequency of this hypofunctional allele is increased in both symptomatic and asymptomatic WNV seroconverters (Caucasians from five US centers; total n = 501; OR = 1.6 [95% CI 1.2–2.0], P = 0.0002 in a recessive genetic model). We then directly tested the effect of this SNP on viral replication in a novel ex vivo model of WNV infection in primary human lymphoid tissue. Virus accumulation varied markedly among donors, and was highest for individuals homozygous for the ‘A’ allele (P<0.0001). Together, these data identify OAS1 SNP rs10774671 as a host genetic risk factor for initial infection with WNV in humans

Genomic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.

The evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus leads to new variants that warrant timely epidemiological characterization. Here we use the dense genomic surveillance data generated by the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium to reconstruct the dynamics of 71 different lineages in each of 315 English local authorities between September 2020 and June 2021. This analysis reveals a series of subepidemics that peaked in early autumn 2020, followed by a jump in transmissibility of the B.1.1.7/Alpha lineage. The Alpha variant grew when other lineages declined during the second national lockdown and regionally tiered restrictions between November and December 2020. A third more stringent national lockdown suppressed the Alpha variant and eliminated nearly all other lineages in early 2021. Yet a series of variants (most of which contained the spike E484K mutation) defied these trends and persisted at moderately increasing proportions. However, by accounting for sustained introductions, we found that the transmissibility of these variants is unlikely to have exceeded the transmissibility of the Alpha variant. Finally, B.1.617.2/Delta was repeatedly introduced in England and grew rapidly in early summer 2021, constituting approximately 98% of sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes on 26 June 2021

Balancing exploration and exploitation in transferring research into practice : a comparison of five knowledge translation entity archetypes

Background: Translating knowledge from research into clinical practice has emerged as a practice of increasing importance. This has led to the creation of new organizational entities designed to bridge knowledge between research and practice. Within the UK, the Collaborations for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) have been introduced to ensure that emphasis is placed in ensuring research is more effectively translated and implemented in clinical practice. Knowledge translation (KT) can be accomplished in various ways and is affected by the structures, activities, and coordination practices of organizations. We draw on concepts in the innovation literature—namely exploration, exploitation, and ambidexterity—to examine these structures and activities as well as the ensuing tensions between research and implementation. Methods: Using a qualitative research approach, the study was based on 106 semi-structured, in-depth interviews with the directors, theme leads and managers, key professionals involved in research and implementation in nine CLAHRCs. Data was also collected from intensive focus group workshops. Results: In this article we develop five archetypes for organizing KT. The results show how the various CLAHRC entities work through partnerships to create explorative research and deliver exploitative implementation. The different archetypes highlight a range of structures that can achieve ambidextrous balance as they organize activity and coordinate practice on a continuum of exploration and exploitation. Conclusion: This work suggests that KT entities aim to reach their goals through a balance between exploration and exploitation in the support of generating new research and ensuring knowledge implementation. We highlight different organizational archetypes that support various ways to maintain ambidexterity, where both exploration and exploitation are supported in an attempt to narrow the knowledge gaps. The KT entity archetypes offer insights on strategies in structuring collaboration to facilitate an effective balance of exploration and exploitation learning in the KT process