Measuring Distance and Properties of the Milky Way's Central Supermassive Black Hole with Stellar Orbits

We report new precision measurements of the properties of our Galaxy's supermassive black hole. Based on astrometric (1995-2007) and radial velocity (2000-2007) measurements from the W. M. Keck 10-meter telescopes, a fully unconstrained Keplerian orbit for the short period star S0-2 provides values for Ro of 8.0+-0.6 kpc, M_bh of 4.1+-0.6x10^6 Mo, and the black hole's radial velocity, which is consistent with zero with 30 km/s uncertainty. If the black hole is assumed to be at rest with respect to the Galaxy, we can further constrain the fit and obtain Ro = 8.4+-0.4 kpc and M_bh = 4.5+-0.4x10^6 Mo. More complex models constrain the extended dark mass distribution to be less than 3-4x10^5 Mo within 0.01 pc, ~100x higher than predictions from stellar and stellar remnant models. For all models, we identify transient astrometric shifts from source confusion and the assumptions regarding the black hole's radial motion as previously unrecognized limitations on orbital accuracy and the usefulness of fainter stars. Future astrometric and RV observations will remedy these effects. Our estimates of Ro and the Galaxy's local rotation speed, which it is derived from combining Ro with the apparent proper motion of Sgr A*, (theta0 = 229+-18 km/s), are compatible with measurements made using other methods. The increased black hole mass found in this study, compared to that determined using projected mass estimators, implies a longer period for the innermost stable orbit, longer resonant relaxation timescales for stars in the vicinity of the black hole and a better agreement with the M_bh-sigma relation.Comment: ApJ, accepted (26 pages, 16 figures, 7 tables

A New Technique for Finding Needles in Haystacks: A Geometric Approach to Distinguishing Between a New Source and Random Fluctuations

We propose a new test statistic based on a score process for determining the statistical significance of a putative signal that may be a small perturbation to a noisy experimental background. We derive the reference distribution for this score test statistic; it has an elegant geometrical interpretation as well as broad applicability. We illustrate the technique in the context of a model problem from high-energy particle physics. Monte Carlo experimental results confirm that the score test results in a significantly improved rate of signal detection.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Do riparian forest fragments provide ecosystem services or disservices in surrounding oil palm plantations?

Agricultural expansion across tropical regions is causing declines in biodiversity and altering ecological processes. However, in some tropical agricultural systems, conserving natural habitat can simultaneously protect threatened species and support important ecosystem services. Oil palm cultivation is expanding rapidly throughout the tropics but the extent to which non-crop habitat supports biodiversity and ecosystem services in these landscapes is poorly documented. We investigated whether riparian forest fragments (riparian reserves) provide a pest control service or increase pest activity (disservice) within oil palm dominated landscapes in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. We assessed the activity of potential predators of pest herbivores using plasticine caterpillar mimics and quantified herbivory rates on oil palm fronds in areas with and without riparian reserves. We also manipulated the shape and colour of the mimics to assess the extent to which artificial pest mimics reflect a predatory response. The presence of riparian reserves increased the attack rate on mimics by arthropods, but not by birds. Our methodological study suggested attacks on artificial pest mimics provide a better indication of predatory activity for birds than for arthropod predators. Herbivory rates were also not significantly affected by the presence of a riparian reserve, but we found some evidence that herbivory rates may decrease as the size of riparian reserves increases. Overall, we conclude that riparian forest fragments of 30 – 50 m width on each side of the river are unlikely to provide a pest control service. Nevertheless, our results provide evidence that these riparian buffer strips do not increase the density of defoliating pests, which should reassure managers concerned about possible negative consequences of preserving riparian buffers

Parameterization of subgrid plume dilution for use in large-scale atmospheric simulations

A new model of plume dynamics has been developed for use as a subgrid model of plume dilution in a large-scale atmospheric simulation. The model uses mean wind, shear, and diffusion parameters derived from the local large-scale variables to advance the plume cross-sectional shape and area in time. Comparisons with a large eddy simulation of aircraft emission plume dynamics, with an analytical solution to the dynamics of a sheared Gaussian plume, and with measurements of aircraft exhaust plume dilution at cruise altitude show good agreement with these previous studies. We argue that the model also provides a reasonable approximation of line-shaped contrail dilution and give an example of how it can be applied in a global climate model

Genotoxic mechanisms for the carcinogenicity of the environmental pollutants and carcinogens o-anisidine and 2-nitroanisole follow from adducts generated by their metabolite N-(2-methoxyphenyl)-hydroxylamine with deoxyguanosine in DNA

An aromatic amine, o-anisidine (2-methoxyaniline) and its oxidative counterpart, 2-nitroanisole (2-methoxynitrobenzene), are the industrial and environmental pollutants causing tumors of the urinary bladder in rats and mice. Both carcinogens are activated to the same proximate carcinogenic metabolite, N-(2-methoxyphenyl)hydroxylamine, which spontaneously decomposes to nitrenium and/or carbenium ions responsible for formation of deoxyguanosine adducts in DNA in vitro and in vivo. In other words, generation of N-(2-methoxyphenyl)hydroxylamine is responsible for the genotoxic mechanisms of the o-anisidine and 2-nitroanisole carcinogenicity. Analogous enzymes of human and rat livers are capable of activating these carcinogens. Namely, human and rat cytochorme P4502E1 is the major enzyme oxidizing o-anisidine to N-(2-methoxyphenyl)hydroxylamine, while xanthine oxidase of both species reduces 2-nitroanisole to this metabolite. Likewise, O-demethylation of 2-nitroanisole, which is the detoxication pathway of its metabolism, is also catalyzed by the same human and rat enzyme, cytochorme P450 2E1. The results demonstrate that the rat is a suitable animal model mimicking the fate of both carcinogens in humans and suggest that both compounds are potential carcinogens also for humans

Impact of Scotland’s comprehensive, smoke-free legislation on stroke

<p>Background: Previous studies have reported a reduction in acute coronary events following smoke-free legislation. Evidence is lacking on whether stroke is also reduced. The aim was to determine whether the incidence of stroke, overalland by sub-type, fell following introduction of smoke-free legislation across Scotland on 26 March 2006.</p> <p>Methods and Findings: A negative binomial regression model was used to determine whether the introduction of smokefree legislation resulted in a step and/or slope change in stroke incidence. The model was adjusted for age-group, sex, socioeconomic deprivation quintile, urban/rural residence and month. Interaction tests were also performed. Routine hospital administrative data and death certificates were used to identify all hospital admissions and pre-hospital deaths due to stroke (ICD10 codes I61, I63 and I64) in Scotland between 2000 and 2010 inclusive. Prior to the legislation, rates of all stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage and unspecified stroke were decreasing, whilst cerebral infarction was increasing at 0.97% per annum. Following the legislation, there was a dramatic fall in cerebral infarctions that persisted for around 20 months. No visible effect was observed for other types of stroke. The model confirmed an 8.90% (95% CI 4.85, 12.77, p,0.001) stepwise reduction in cerebral infarction at the time the legislation was implemented, after adjustment for potential cofounders.</p> <p>Conclusions: Following introduction of national, comprehensive smoke-free legislation there was a selective reduction in cerebral infarction that was not apparent in other types of stroke.</p&gt

Modeled Effect of Coastal Biogeochemical Processes, Climate Variability, and Ocean Acidification on Aragonite Saturation State in the Bering Sea

The Bering Sea is highly vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA) due to naturally cold, poorly buffered waters and ocean mixing processes. Harsh weather conditions within this rapidly changing, geographically remote environment have limited the quantity of carbon chemistry data, thereby hampering efforts to understand underlying spatial-temporal variability and detect long-term trends. We add carbonate chemistry to a regional biogeochemical model of the Bering Sea to explore the underlying mechanisms driving carbon dynamics over a decadal hindcast (2003–2012). The results illustrate that coastal processes generate considerable spatial variability in the biogeochemistry and vulnerability of Bering Sea shelf water to OA. Substantial seasonal biological productivity maintains high supersaturation of aragonite on the outer shelf, whereas riverine freshwater runoff loaded with allochthonous carbon decreases aragonite saturation states (ΩArag) to values below 1 on the inner shelf. Over the entire 2003–2012 model hindcast, annual surface ΩArag decreases by 0.025 – 0.04 units/year due to positive trends in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in surface waters and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Variability in this trend is driven by an increase in fall phytoplankton productivity and shelf carbon uptake, occurring during a transition from a relatively warm (2003–2005) to cold (2010–2012) temperature regime. Our results illustrate how local biogeochemical processes and climate variability can modify projected rates of OA within a coastal shelf system

Predicting language learners' grades in the L1, L2, L3 and L4: the effect of some psychological and sociocognitive variables

This study of 89 Flemish high-school students' grades for L1 (Dutch), L2 (French), L3 (English) and L4 (German) investigates the effects of three higher-level personality dimensions (psychoticism, extraversion, neuroticism), one lower-level personality dimension (foreign language anxiety) and sociobiographical variables (gender, social class) on the participants' language grades. Analyses of variance revealed no significant effects of the higher-level personality dimensions on grades. Participants with high levels of foreign language anxiety obtained significantly lower grades in the L2 and L3. Gender and social class had no effect. Strong positive correlations between grades in the different languages could point to an underlying sociocognitive dimension. The implications of these findings are discussed

Reductions in cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory mortality following the national Irish smoking ban: Interrupted time-series analysis

Copyright @ 2013 Stallings-Smith et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Previous studies have shown decreases in cardiovascular mortality following the implementation of comprehensive smoking bans. It is not known whether cerebrovascular or respiratory mortality decreases post-ban. On March 29, 2004, the Republic of Ireland became the first country in the world to implement a national workplace smoking ban. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of this policy on all-cause and cause-specific, non-trauma mortality. Methods: A time-series epidemiologic assessment was conducted, utilizing Poisson regression to examine weekly age and gender-standardized rates for 215,878 non-trauma deaths in the Irish population, ages ≥35 years. The study period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2007, with a post-ban follow-up of 3.75 years. All models were adjusted for time trend, season, influenza, and smoking prevalence. Results: Following ban implementation, an immediate 13% decrease in all-cause mortality (RR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76-0.99), a 26% reduction in ischemic heart disease (IHD) (RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63-0.88), a 32% reduction in stroke (RR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.54-0.85), and a 38% reduction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (RR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.46-0.83) mortality was observed. Post-ban reductions in IHD, stroke, and COPD mortalities were seen in ages ≥65 years, but not in ages 35-64 years. COPD mortality reductions were found only in females (RR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.32-0.70). Post-ban annual trend reductions were not detected for any smoking-related causes of death. Unadjusted estimates indicate that 3,726 (95% CI: 2,305-4,629) smoking-related deaths were likely prevented post-ban. Mortality decreases were primarily due to reductions in passive smoking. Conclusions: The national Irish smoking ban was associated with immediate reductions in early mortality. Importantly, post-ban risk differences did not change with a longer follow-up period. This study corroborates previous evidence for cardiovascular causes, and is the first to demonstrate reductions in cerebrovascular and respiratory causes