A profit model for spread trading with an application to energy futures

This paper proposes a profit model for spread trading by focusing on the stochastic movement of the price spread and its first hitting time probability density. The model is general in that it can be used for any financial instrument. The advantage of the model is that the profit from the trades can be easily calculated if the first hitting time probability density of the stochastic process is given. We then modify the profit model for a particular market, the energy futures market. It is shown that energy futures spreads are modeled by using a meanreverting process. Since the first hitting time probability density of a mean-reverting process is approximately known, the profit model for energy futures price spreads is given in a computable way by using the parameters of the process. Finally, we provide empirical evidence for spread trades of energy futures by employing historical prices of energy futures (WTI crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas futures) traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The results suggest that natural gas futures trading may be more profitable than WTI crude oil and heating oil due to its high volatility in addition to its long-term mean reversion, which offers supportive evidence of the model prediction. --futures spread trading,energy futures markets,mean-reverting process,first hitting,time probability density,profit model,WTI crude oil,heating oil,natural gas

Detecção de Cryptosporidium sp. em fezes não diarréicas de crianças, em uma escola de educação infantil de São Paulo, Brasil

O protozoário Cryptosporidium sp. tem sido detectado com freqüência em fezes de crianças com diarréia persistente. Este trabalho teve como objetivo investigar um surto de criptosporidiose, em uma escola de educação infantil, que atende crianças de classe média alta, de 0 a seis anos de idade. O surto foi detectado a partir de amostras fecais não diarréicas encaminhadas ao Instituto Adolfo Lutz através da rede de saúde pública. Das 64 crianças 13 (20,3%) apresentaram oocistos de Cryptosporidium nas fezes, examinadas pelo método de Kinyoun, sendo sete crianças com um ano de idade, três com dois anos de idade e três, com três anos de idade. Dos 23 adultos examinados, apenas uma mulher de 22 anos, com possível imunocomprometimento, foi positiva. Aspectos epidemiológicos e clínicos foram investigados por meio de questionários, ressaltando-se que o surto ocorreu em período muito seco.The protozoan Cryptosporidium sp. has been frequently detected in faeces from children with persistent diarrhoea. This work achieved to investigate an outbreak of cryptosporidiosis, in a day care center, attending children of high socio-economic level, between 0 and six years old. The outbreak was detected through the network of public health, when stool samples, not diarrhoeic, were examined at the Parasitology Service of the Adolfo Lutz Institute. Among the 64 examined children, 13 (20.3%) showed oocysts of Cryptosporidium sp. in the faeces examined by Kinyoun technique: seven children one year old, three, two years old and three, three years old. Among the 23 examined adults, only a 22 years old woman, possibly having an immunocomprometiment, was positive. Clinical and epidemiological aspects were investigated by questionnaires, highlighting the occurrence of the outbreak in a very dry period

Charge Deficiency, Charge Transport and Comparison of Dimensions

We study the relative index of two orthogonal infinite dimensional projections which, in the finite dimensional case, is the difference in their dimensions. We relate the relative index to the Fredholm index of appropriate operators, discuss its basic properties, and obtain various formulas for it. We apply the relative index to counting the change in the number of electrons below the Fermi energy of certain quantum systems and interpret it as the charge deficiency. We study the relation of the charge deficiency with the notion of adiabatic charge transport that arises from the consideration of the adiabatic curvature. It is shown that, under a certain covariance, (homogeneity), condition the two are related. The relative index is related to Bellissard's theory of the Integer Hall effect. For Landau Hamiltonians the relative index is computed explicitly for all Landau levels.Comment: 23 pages, no figure

Molecular complexity determines the number of olfactory notes and the pleasantness of smells

One major unresolved problem in olfaction research is to relate the percept to the molecular structure of stimuli. The present study examined this issue and showed for the first time a quantitative structure-odor relationship in which the more structurally complex a monomolecular odorant, the more numerous the olfactory notes it evokes. Low-complexity odorants were also rated as more aversive, reflecting the fact that low molecular complexity may serve as a warning cue for the olfactory system. Taken together, these findings suggest that molecular complexity provides a framework to explain the subjective experience of smells

Semantic Knowledge Influences Prewired Hedonic Responses to Odors

Background Odor hedonic perception relies on decoding the physicochemical properties of odorant molecules and can be influenced in humans by semantic knowledge. The effect of semantic knowledge on such prewired hedonic processing over the life span has remained unclear. Methodology/Principal Findings The present study measured hedonic response to odors in different age groups (children, teenagers, young adults, and seniors) and found that children and seniors, two age groups characterized by either low level of (children) or weak access to (seniors) odor semantic knowledge, processed odor hedonics more on the basis of their physicochemical properties. In contrast, in teenagers and young adults, who show better levels of semantic odor representation, the role of physicochemical properties was less marked. Conclusions/Significance These findings demonstrate for the first time that the biological determinants that make an odor pleasant or unpleasant are more powerful at either end of the life span

Cross-cultural color-odor associations

Colors and odors are associated; for instance, people typically match the smell of strawberries to the color pink or red. These associations are forms of crossmodal correspondences. Recently, there has been discussion about the extent to which these correspondences arise for structural reasons (i.e., an inherent mapping between color and odor), statistical reasons (i.e., covariance in experience), and/or semantically-mediated reasons (i.e., stemming from language). The present study probed this question by testing color-odor correspondences in 6 different cultural groups (Dutch, Netherlands-residing-Chinese, German, Malay, Malaysian-Chinese, and US residents), using the same set of 14 odors and asking participants to make congruent and incongruent color choices for each odor. We found consistent patterns in color choices for each odor within each culture, showing that participants were making non-random color-odor matches. We used representational dissimilarity analysis to probe for variations in the patterns of color-odor associations across cultures; we found that US and German participants had the most similar patterns of associations, followed by German and Malay participants. The largest group differences were between Malay and Netherlands-resident Chinese participants and between Dutch and Malaysian-Chinese participants. We conclude that culture plays a role in color-odor crossmodal associations, which likely arise, at least in part, through experience

Tools to Support Policy Decisions Related to Treatment Strategies and Surveillance of Schistosomiasis Japonica towards Elimination

Immunodiagnostic assays are widely applied in the field to control schistosomiasis in P.R. China as the prevalence and infection intensity of schistosome infections decrease. Field evaluations are urgently needed before they can be adopted to support policy decisions of the national programme for the control and elimination of schistosomiasis in P.R. China. We carried out a large scale cross-sectional survey in field settings with different transmission situations to validate immunodiagnostic tools that can be used to formulate new schistosomiasis elimination strategy in P.R. China. Regarding stool examination as gold reference, the validity and screening efficacy of each immunodiagnostic kit were calculated and compared with each other. The association of the prevalence of schistosomiasis and antibody positive rates determined by immunoassays were analyzed using Pearson's correlation coefficient values. The study indicates that which test to use with the elimination strategy is dependent on the purpose of testing, the endemic status of community and the resources available. And more sensitive methods need to be explored and used to target infected individuals for treatment or to eliminate schistosomiasis